superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 These numbers are based off the next 5 1/2 days. Oddly it seems the Control run ticked down a bit and the Mean is about the same as 00z. EDIT: actually the mean is heavier I believe.. in the Upstate too. Yes, the mean is definitely heavier, especially in NC. If QPF is down at all, maybe it's because it lost some crazy amped rainstorms. 6-8" for 2/3rds+ of NC along with E TN, NW SC, and N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro went from 0.99qpf @ 12z yesterday to 0.25qpf 12z today. for N.Foothills in NC, So wait and see if I get any snow up here? Enjoy your snow down south!!! Not as worried as you, but GSP is slowly lowering my snow chances it was at 70% this time yesterday for monday night down to 40% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes, the mean is definitely heavier, especially in NC. If QPF is down at all, maybe it's because it lost some crazy amped rainstorms. 6-8" for 2/3rds+ of NC along with E TN, NW SC, and N GA. I think we can all agree this is not all snow especially into KCAE, but this is where I think the majority of us want this thing to stay. Everyone would most likely see accumulating snow, with much better amounts into NC, NE GA, NW/North SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAM already looks stronger/slower with the lead wave out West. Let's see if that translates to a more precip for everybody on Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 member E42 is basically my all time fantasy storm... doesn't get any prettier than that member right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just eyeballing the individual member maps i would say 32/51 have 6+ inches at RDU, when i see the plumes i will tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This looks more and more interesting for everybody in SC. Those right at the coast (like me) may be getting in the action if the trends continue. Still temps are little borderline for CHS right now. Well currently CHS is 43/9. The airmass this weekend is expected to be even colder and drier. Current thoughts make me think that we have a legit chance of catching something from this wintry next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well currently CHS is 43/9. The airmass this weekend is expected to be even colder and drier. Current thoughts make me think that we have a legit chance of catching something from this wintry next week. As the system strengthens/tries to pull up the coast I am almost sure you guys will see something. Here's hoping to 1973. (if Euro EPS is right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EPS 24 hr Accumulation probabilities(focused on MBY at hour 102):90-99% chance for 1"70-80% chance for 3"30-40% chance for 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 KCAE: WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN AND THE COLD AIR MASS INITIALLY IN PLACE INDICATES A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WET BULB TEMPERATURES...COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES AND H8 TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW/AROUND FREEZING WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF LINE FROM EDGEFIELD...AIKEN...ORANGEBURG TO MANNING. THE COLDEST/DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OF LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES...BUT THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LESS DEEP. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIMINISHING. BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. AM CONFIDENT THAT THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW/WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THIS WILL GIVE US BETTER CONFIDENCE ON THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just eyeballing the individual member maps i would say 32/51 have 6+ inches at RDU, when i see the plumes i will tell for sure. 60%? Pretty darn good. Can't say how being in the bulls eye 4 days is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nam at 72 much wetter into nc than 12z, snow thru central nc. whereas it stopped at the state line in the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EPS also gives a 30-40% probability for below zero temperatures as close to CLT as Lincoln County. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAM definitely has the baja low interacting more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Precip extending up into VA by 72 hrs .. more moisture with the first wave to lay a coat down before the second wave arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RAH is on board. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCES IN INCREASING FOR A POTENTIAL WINTERSTORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA EARLY/MID NEXTWEEK...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS (AT LEAST) PARTSOF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAM is a nice 1-3 inches across western central NC, inch or less NE NC (including RDU). Hopefull more would follow after the simulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 FFC is still on the fence: STILL A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE EXTENDEDFORECAST PERIOD. I HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECASTTRENDS FROM RECENT CYCLES. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCESBETWEEN THE GFS/NAM AND THE ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE ABIT MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF/CMC WHICHRESULTS IN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMINGAS WELL AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES. EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ABLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSSPORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAYNIGHT. ULTIMATE TIMINGS...AMOUNTS...IMPACTS REMAIN FLUID RIGHTNOW...BUT ALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA NEED TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND KEEP ACLOSE EYE ON FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS PROVIDED BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Really interesting too as this snow would be falling with 850s -7 to -12C across much of NC, would probably be a litlte higher than 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, KCAE bit the bullet for Columbia, SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 KGSP not quite ready to pull the trigger, at least on any details..... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AS OUR WINTER PRECIP EVENT NEXT WEEK DRAWSNEARER...CONFIDENCE HAS ACTUALLY DIPPED A BIT...MAINLY BECAUSE OFTHE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES SEEN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THEGEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM RECENT RUNS ALSO CONTINUE TO UNDERMINECONFIDENCE...AS THEY SHOW MORE SPREAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS ANDTIMING. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS TO BE FOUNDBETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM IN TERMS OF THEOVERALL IDEA OF HOW THINGS MIGHT UNFOLD...EVEN IF THOSE RUNS SHOWTIMING DIFFERENCES. THE POSSIBLE SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE THIS...AFRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAINLY ONMONDAY. THAT BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEGINNING OVER THE NCMTNS AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THAT PRECIP SPREADING EAST ACROSS THEENTIRE FCST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN E OF THE FCST AREA BYDAYBREAK TUESDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCESUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW INTO MONDAY EVE. THISSCENARIO AGREES WITH WPC THOUGHTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCHOF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREAE OF I-77 BECAUSE OF TIMING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INCREASEPRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIMIT TO THECHANCE RANGE...WITH SOME LIKELY OVER THE SW MTNS...THEN WITH PRECIPSHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOME LIKELY POP OVER THE SE ZONESMONDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SOME LULL WILLOCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TIMING CANNOTBE NAILED DOWN YET...ESPECIALLY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SPREADINGPRECIP UP FROM THE S/SW EARLY TUESDAY...SO PRECIP PROBABILITY GOESDOWN TO THE CHC RANGE...WHERE IT STAYS THRU TUESDAY EVENING.ASSUMING PRECIP IS FALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAYMORNING...EXPECT A WARM NOSE TO CREEP UP FROM THE S THAT WOULD MIXIN SOME SLEET OVER MUCH OF NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE...AND FREEZINGRAIN OVER THE LAKELANDS. PRECIP WOULD THEN CHANGE/MIX TO RAINTUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP WILLACTUALLY FALL EARLY TUESDAY...UNTIL A DEFORMATION ZONE BRINGS SOMELIGHT PRECIP BACK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONSENSUS ISTHAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL PULL AWAY TO THE E/NE BY DAYBREAKWEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME...ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL HAVE CHANGEDBACK TO LIGHT SNOW. BOTTOM LINE IS...STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOEXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. -PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 KGSP not quite ready to pull the trigger, at least on any details..... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AS OUR WINTER PRECIP EVENT NEXT WEEK DRAWS NEARER...CONFIDENCE HAS ACTUALLY DIPPED A BIT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES SEEN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM RECENT RUNS ALSO CONTINUE TO UNDERMINE CONFIDENCE...AS THEY SHOW MORE SPREAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS AND TIMING. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS TO BE FOUND BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL IDEA OF HOW THINGS MIGHT UNFOLD...EVEN IF THOSE RUNS SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE POSSIBLE SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE THIS...A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAINLY ON MONDAY. THAT BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEGINNING OVER THE NC MTNS AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THAT PRECIP SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN E OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW INTO MONDAY EVE. THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH WPC THOUGHTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA E OF I-77 BECAUSE OF TIMING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIMIT TO THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH SOME LIKELY OVER THE SW MTNS...THEN WITH PRECIP SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOME LIKELY POP OVER THE SE ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SOME LULL WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TIMING CANNOT BE NAILED DOWN YET...ESPECIALLY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SPREADING PRECIP UP FROM THE S/SW EARLY TUESDAY...SO PRECIP PROBABILITY GOES DOWN TO THE CHC RANGE...WHERE IT STAYS THRU TUESDAY EVENING. ASSUMING PRECIP IS FALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT A WARM NOSE TO CREEP UP FROM THE S THAT WOULD MIX IN SOME SLEET OVER MUCH OF NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE...AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE LAKELANDS. PRECIP WOULD THEN CHANGE/MIX TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY FALL EARLY TUESDAY...UNTIL A DEFORMATION ZONE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP BACK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL PULL AWAY TO THE E/NE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME...ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL HAVE CHANGED BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. BOTTOM LINE IS...STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST... AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. -PM Seems like they're looking at a much more mixed bag for my area than what the current models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM, has its issues, as we all know, but I do like what its doing with temps at 2m. Makes MUCH more sense with a VERY DRY air mass initially, and then it locks it in and enhances the cold pool. Even down to Macon. EURO is VERY close around here as well. NAM does have some IP/ZR here, EURO is like 3 degrees or so from it. This is going to be a VERY tight fit. But its the best shot we have had all freakin' year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RNK 3pm update...... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN COLD THAT IF ANYPRECIPITATION ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THEFORECAST...IT WILL FALL AS SNOW. HOWEVER...TO GET SNOW YOU WILL NEEDMOISTURE AND LIFT. ALL WEATHER FEATURES MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAVESHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WITH TODAY`S MODEL RUNS...WHICH MEANS LESSMOISTURE AND LIFT...THEREFORE LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW.MONDAY`S MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FROM A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD WV TOWEST JEFFERSON NC AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. IF MOISTURE CAN SURVIVEMOVING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY FALLACROSS SOUTHSIDE MONDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THEMID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.MODELS ARE TRACKING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPIVALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE PANHANDLEOF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS MORE SOUTHERN TRACK REMOVES MAJORITY OFTHE MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AS SEEN YESTERDAY. WE HAVE SEEN A COUPLEOF TIMES THIS YEAR WHERE MODELS TREND SOUTH DURING THE DAY 4-5PERIOD...THEN TREND BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM ENTERS THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...WE DID NOT GO ALL IN WITHTHE DRIER MODEL RUNS OF TODAY BUT DID LOWER POPS DOWN ABOUT 20PERCENT. THE TRACK AND/OR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS NOW LOOKINGTO BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHERE YESTERDAY IS WAS NEARCAPE HATTERAS. THE BEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE FOR THE FORECAST AREAOCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFFTHE COAST. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN DRAMATICALLY CUTTO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH /0.10/ ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIATO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA-NORTHERNNORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.ONCE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF SHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSLOPEMOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ACLIPPER...ALSO ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OFLIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS THURSDAY.SINCE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING ALL WEATHER FEATURES TO THESOUTH...ONE COULD MAKE A GOOD GUESS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINBELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the NAM is oh so close at interacting the s/w with the northern stream energy coming down. You can see in the final few frames they are about to make some noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sfc map for 12z Tues....Ensemble Means for GFS, Canadian (GEM), and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If you believe the NAM, we wont get out of the twenties from hour 42 until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If you believe the NAM, we wont get out of the twenties from hour 42 until further notice. Cobb output is 12-15:1 ratios for many locations in NC with Monday snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Cobb output is 12-15:1 ratios for many locations in NC with Monday snow.If that holds true, it would be wonderful.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Folks, you need to realize your local national weather service will always remain super conservative until it's beyond obvious. This is how they have always been and will always be, stop fretting over what they are saying at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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