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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


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These numbers are based off the next 5 1/2 days. Oddly it seems the Control run ticked down a bit and the Mean is about the same as 00z.

EDIT: actually the mean is heavier I believe.. in the Upstate too.

Yes, the mean is definitely heavier, especially in NC. If QPF is down at all, maybe it's because it lost some crazy amped rainstorms.

6-8" for 2/3rds+ of NC along with E TN, NW SC, and N GA.

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Yes, the mean is definitely heavier, especially in NC. If QPF is down at all, maybe it's because it lost some crazy amped rainstorms.

6-8" for 2/3rds+ of NC along with E TN, NW SC, and N GA.

 

I think we can all agree this is not all snow especially into KCAE, but this is where I think the majority of us want this thing to stay.  Everyone would most likely see accumulating snow, with much better amounts into NC, NE GA, NW/North SC.

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This looks more and more interesting for everybody in SC. Those right at the coast (like me) may be getting in the action if the trends continue.

Still temps are little borderline for CHS right now.

Well currently CHS is 43/9. The airmass this weekend is expected to be even colder and drier. Current thoughts make me think that we have a legit chance of catching something from this wintry next week.

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Well currently CHS is 43/9. The airmass this weekend is expected to be even colder and drier. Current thoughts make me think that we have a legit chance of catching something from this wintry next week.

 

As the system strengthens/tries to pull up the coast I am almost sure you guys will see something.  Here's hoping to 1973.

 

(if Euro EPS is right)

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KCAE:

 


WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT...HAVE KEPT  
POPS IN THE CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF  
MONDAY. A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN AND THE COLD AIR MASS INITIALLY IN  
PLACE INDICATES A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE  
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WET  
BULB TEMPERATURES...COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES AND H8 TEMPERATURES  
JUST BELOW/AROUND FREEZING WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR THE MIXED  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF LINE FROM  
EDGEFIELD...AIKEN...ORANGEBURG TO MANNING.
THE COLDEST/DRIEST AIR  
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OF LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD  
COUNTIES...BUT THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LESS DEEP. BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR  
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIMINISHING. BOTH ECMWF/GFS  
INDICATE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY...BUT AT  
THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. AM CONFIDENT THAT THE  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW/WELL BELOW NORMAL  
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY MODEL  
RUNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A  
SOLUTION. THIS WILL GIVE US BETTER CONFIDENCE ON THE EVENTUAL  
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  

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FFC is still on the fence:

 

 

 

STILL A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. I HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TRENDS FROM RECENT CYCLES. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM AND THE ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE A
BIT MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF/CMC WHICH
RESULTS IN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING
AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES. EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN A
BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. ULTIMATE TIMINGS...AMOUNTS...IMPACTS REMAIN FLUID RIGHT
NOW...BUT ALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA NEED TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FUTURE FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS PROVIDED BELOW.
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KGSP not quite ready to pull the trigger, at least on any details.....

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AS OUR WINTER PRECIP EVENT NEXT WEEK DRAWS
NEARER...CONFIDENCE HAS ACTUALLY DIPPED A BIT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES SEEN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE
GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM RECENT RUNS ALSO CONTINUE TO UNDERMINE
CONFIDENCE...AS THEY SHOW MORE SPREAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS AND
TIMING. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS TO BE FOUND
BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL IDEA OF HOW THINGS MIGHT UNFOLD...EVEN IF THOSE RUNS SHOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE POSSIBLE SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE THIS...A
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAINLY ON
MONDAY. THAT BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEGINNING OVER THE NC
MTNS AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THAT PRECIP SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN E OF THE FCST AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW INTO MONDAY EVE. THIS
SCENARIO AGREES WITH WPC THOUGHTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA
E OF I-77 BECAUSE OF TIMING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIMIT TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...WITH SOME LIKELY OVER THE SW MTNS...THEN WITH PRECIP
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOME LIKELY POP OVER THE SE ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SOME LULL WILL
OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TIMING CANNOT
BE NAILED DOWN YET...ESPECIALLY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SPREADING
PRECIP UP FROM THE S/SW EARLY TUESDAY...SO PRECIP PROBABILITY GOES
DOWN TO THE CHC RANGE...WHERE IT STAYS THRU TUESDAY EVENING.
ASSUMING PRECIP IS FALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT A WARM NOSE TO CREEP UP FROM THE S THAT WOULD MIX
IN SOME SLEET OVER MUCH OF NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE...AND FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE LAKELANDS. PRECIP WOULD THEN CHANGE/MIX TO RAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP WILL
ACTUALLY FALL EARLY TUESDAY...UNTIL A DEFORMATION ZONE BRINGS SOME
LIGHT PRECIP BACK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL PULL AWAY TO THE E/NE BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME...ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL HAVE CHANGED
BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. BOTTOM LINE IS...STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. -PM

 

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KGSP not quite ready to pull the trigger, at least on any details.....

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AS OUR WINTER PRECIP EVENT NEXT WEEK DRAWS

NEARER...CONFIDENCE HAS ACTUALLY DIPPED A BIT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF

THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES SEEN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE

GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM RECENT RUNS ALSO CONTINUE TO UNDERMINE

CONFIDENCE...AS THEY SHOW MORE SPREAD IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS AND

TIMING. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS TO BE FOUND

BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM IN TERMS OF THE

OVERALL IDEA OF HOW THINGS MIGHT UNFOLD...EVEN IF THOSE RUNS SHOW

TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE POSSIBLE SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE THIS...A

FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAINLY ON

MONDAY. THAT BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEGINNING OVER THE NC

MTNS AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THAT PRECIP SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE

ENTIRE FCST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN E OF THE FCST AREA BY

DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS FROM A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW INTO MONDAY EVE. THIS

SCENARIO AGREES WITH WPC THOUGHTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH

OF THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA

E OF I-77 BECAUSE OF TIMING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INCREASE

PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY BUT WILL LIMIT TO THE

CHANCE RANGE...WITH SOME LIKELY OVER THE SW MTNS...THEN WITH PRECIP

SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOME LIKELY POP OVER THE SE ZONES

MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SOME LULL WILL

OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE TIMING CANNOT

BE NAILED DOWN YET...ESPECIALLY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SPREADING

PRECIP UP FROM THE S/SW EARLY TUESDAY...SO PRECIP PROBABILITY GOES

DOWN TO THE CHC RANGE...WHERE IT STAYS THRU TUESDAY EVENING.

ASSUMING PRECIP IS FALLING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY

MORNING...EXPECT A WARM NOSE TO CREEP UP FROM THE S THAT WOULD MIX

IN SOME SLEET OVER MUCH OF NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE...AND FREEZING

RAIN OVER THE LAKELANDS. PRECIP WOULD THEN CHANGE/MIX TO RAIN

TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP WILL

ACTUALLY FALL EARLY TUESDAY...UNTIL A DEFORMATION ZONE BRINGS SOME

LIGHT PRECIP BACK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONSENSUS IS

THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL PULL AWAY TO THE E/NE BY DAYBREAK

WEDNESDAY. BY THAT TIME...ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL HAVE CHANGED

BACK TO LIGHT SNOW. BOTTOM LINE IS...STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...

AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO

EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. -PM

 

 

Seems like they're looking at a much more mixed bag for my area than what the current models are showing. 

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NAM, has its issues, as we all know, but I do like what its doing with temps at 2m.  Makes MUCH more sense with a VERY DRY air mass initially, and then it locks it in and enhances the cold pool.  Even down to Macon.  EURO is VERY close around here as well.  NAM does have some IP/ZR here, EURO is like 3 degrees or so from it.  This is going to be a VERY tight fit.  But its the best shot we have had all freakin' year.

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RNK 3pm update......

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...

THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN COLD THAT IF ANY
PRECIPITATION ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...IT WILL FALL AS SNOW. HOWEVER...TO GET SNOW YOU WILL NEED
MOISTURE AND LIFT. ALL WEATHER FEATURES MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WITH TODAY`S MODEL RUNS...WHICH MEANS LESS
MOISTURE AND LIFT...THEREFORE LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW.

MONDAY`S MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FROM A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO
WEST JEFFERSON NC AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. IF MOISTURE CAN SURVIVE
MOVING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY FALL
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE MONDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE
MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRACKING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS MORE SOUTHERN TRACK REMOVES MAJORITY OF
THE MOISTURE FROM THE AREA AS SEEN YESTERDAY. WE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE
OF TIMES THIS YEAR WHERE MODELS TREND SOUTH DURING THE DAY 4-5
PERIOD...THEN TREND BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM ENTERS THE SHORT-
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...WE DID NOT GO ALL IN WITH
THE DRIER MODEL RUNS OF TODAY BUT DID LOWER POPS DOWN ABOUT 20
PERCENT. THE TRACK AND/OR SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS NOW LOOKING
TO BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHERE YESTERDAY IS WAS NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS. THE BEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE FOR THE FORECAST AREA
OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN DRAMATICALLY CUT
TO UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH /0.10/ ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/ ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA-NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

ONCE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF SHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
CLIPPER...ALSO ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY.

SINCE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING ALL WEATHER FEATURES TO THE
SOUTH...ONE COULD MAKE A GOOD GUESS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

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