packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anybody have the UK Met details yet? Should be getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 we don't; agree a lot but I agree with this 100%.Both will have cold ground with what appears to be a leading finger if precip. Start with a good thump of snow followed by ip and zr. I think we actually went above freezing for a few hours before the deep freeze came. I agree as well that this looks similar. One thing for certain is that I will not be caught at work this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKMET looks virtually the same. Snow to IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKMET looks virtually the same. Snow to IP. Thanks. It's been consistent. We will find out next week if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Both will have cold ground with what appears to be a leading finger if precip. Start with a good thump of snow followed by ip and zr. I think we actually went above freezing for a few hours before the deep freeze came. I agree as well that this looks similar. One thing for certain is that I will not be caught at work this time. The cold ground is a biggie. For once we might actually get to see what falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Disco from WPC that Lookout posted thought that the UKMet was an outlier actually Yeah, the 12z UK is front end 2-4" of snow and then a ton of ice for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pack - I think you meant the late Jan '14 storm (Atl snojam 2) - yes, the Euro is a very similar setup overall at 500mb, though this one isn't as cold as far south. One thing of note is that the baja moisture didn't come out with that one and it was still rather moist along the coast. Here' the Jan '14 storm - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20140128.html The February massive storm did have the overrunning south the day before it, too, though (maybe Pack was referring to that)? I don't really see January 2011 as a great analog at this point. If we got a repeat of that one, I'd on on edge of losing it (slight exaggeration, but that was awful here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Although not my favorite model for sure, I have added snow graphics to the DGEX. here was the 6z fantasy Again this is 6z, 18z should be out in about 1-2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anybody have the UK Met details yet? Should be getting close. Yeah I don't remember exactly what the 0z showed but the 12z seems to be like exactly what you would expect. Pretty much the same look just expanded a little south due to the low tracking a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah, the 12z UKMET is a big dog from N/W of CLT to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The cold ground is a biggie. For once we might actually get to see what falls. It almost seemed weird in 2011 for snow to instantly stick. I'm so used to seeing it melt for hours. Last year was the same thing but even weirder because it instantly stuck during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That was before the Euro which shows a Miller B. It is a strange look to see a transfer with the initial low so far south. But the Euro was nearly identical to its previous run, so they would still view the UKMet as the outlier, at this point anyway. Just looked again at the UKMet, and it is amping up the initial low and brings it on out east...and doesn't have anything left with the second piece digging down through the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SREF Plumes still getting more excited for KCAE on that "first wave". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Although not my favorite model for sure, I have added snow graphics to the DGEX. here was the 6z fantasy Again this is 6z, 18z should be out in about 1-2 hours. Just once, it would be so awesome to see something like this work out. This would take care of most posters in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EPS is a little more vigorous with the lead wave for NC, a little stronger, but just as cold as the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DGEX clown despite wicked erroneous totals does have that miller b look to it. LP forms off coast of SC somewhere between Charleston and Myrtle Beach I'm guessing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Although not my favorite model for sure, I have added snow graphics to the DGEX. here was the 6z fantasy Again this is 6z, 18z should be out in about 1-2 hours. How would you like to be in northwest AL if that map verified? I think there is a lot of evidence the baja low comes out, and not so much it stays back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EPS is a little more vigorous with the lead wave for NC, a little stronger, but just as cold as the 0z run. wont be shocked to see the gfs start to trend a little stronger/north with that intial wave over the next few runs. seems like all other guidance lays down an initial burst of snow for nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There is another smaller threat at day 6/7 on the 12z ukmet btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Although not my favorite model for sure, I have added snow graphics to the DGEX. here was the 6z fantasy Again this is 6z, 18z should be out in about 1-2 hours. https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=check+please+dumb+and+dumber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The EPS did shift the snow axis SE a little, has 6-8" across all of central NC, jackpots N-GA with 8-10. This is from SV's snow maps which are conservatively all snow. It has all of NC with atleast 2", roughly 8" right around RDU, with 6-8" over most of NC except far eastern NC which has 2-4". GSP is in 6-8" range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EPS has snow starting early Monday morning in TN, early afternoon in N-GA, late afternoon for W-NC and late evening for central NC. This starts up in 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro went from 0.99qpf @ 12z yesterday to 0.25qpf 12z today. for N.Foothills in NC, So wait and see if I get any snow up here? Enjoy your snow down south!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z EPS has many many monsters for the Midlands of SC. Over 30 members with 2" or more. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like by when it's all said and done, 6.5" is the mean for much of the CLT metro. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like the bullseye is close to franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 every single Euro ensemble member has at least 90% of the state covered in at least 3 inches of snow. only 2 members show the extreme southeast corner of NC getting less then that... accounting for that roughly other 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z EPS has many many monsters for the Midlands of SC. Over 30 members with 2" or more. WOW This looks more and more interesting for everybody in SC. Those right at the coast (like me) may be getting in the action if the trends continue. Still temps are little borderline for CHS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is this still a Tues night/Wed morn deal? Or is it coming in sooner? These numbers are based off the next 5 1/2 days. Oddly it seems the Control run ticked down a bit and the Mean is about the same as 00z. EDIT: actually the mean is heavier I believe.. in the Upstate too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 These numbers are based off the next 5 1/2 days. Oddly it seems the Control run ticked down a bit and the Mean is about the same as 00z. EDIT: actually the mean is heavier I believe.. in the Upstate too. Yes, the mean is definitely heavier, especially in NC. If QPF is down at all, maybe it's because it lost some crazy amped rainstorms. 6-8" for 2/3rds+ of NC along with E TN, NW SC, and N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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