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Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx


burgertime

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This is really an excellent Euro solution at this range. We are inside 5 days. We have a real threat. We have a very cold air mass in place prior to the event. There is a wide swath of snow. Amounts could easily be underdone right now. The usual caveats apply, but I like where we are now. A lot.

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Post the 120hr map, I bet eastern NC get's hammered with a foot. Looks like central has the precip min, LOL.

Much improved run, very close to being bigger, I like where it's at.

pbWFvuV.jpg
Normally the precip doesn't streak straight east, like on this map, without mtns screwing it up, but one time in 99 or 2000, there was a storm that had a very similar track in January . We got about 4-5 inches of snow with temps in 20s! Even had Jim Cantore broadcasting in Greenville, we were in the bullseye
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Interesting from DT who usually LOVES him some European Models:

 

Wxrisk.com 12Z operatioal EUROPEAN modeal with regard to FEB 17 in the Middle Atlantic states .. keeps the Low to the south. The Model actually has 2 Lows which is a mistake ( there will only be one) . As I said before at this stage ENSEMBLE matter more so lets see what the Euro ensemnble says in 1 hour

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Euro was really, really similar to its 00z run...initial wave precip that weakens, then overall suppressed with round 2.  Some moisture off the baja low gets injected into the initial wave, then another good chunk is injected into the second piece.  You can see it on the loop here if you have wxbell - http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015021312/conus2/ecmwf_rh700_conus2_mouse.php

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This is really an excellent Euro solution at this range. We are inside 5 days. We have a real threat. We have a very cold air mass in place prior to the event. There is a wide swath of snow. Amounts could easily be underdone right now. The usual caveats apply, but I like where we are now. A lot.

 

Yep, let's see how the ensemble support looks

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Eric Webb@webberweather 3m3 minutes ago

Based on z500, Jan 2002/1982, Feb 5-7 2003, Mar 1980, & Dec 1989 are decent analogs for next wk's winter storm. #ncwx

I'll take my powdery 2 inches on Monday , could care less about anything after that!

Lol @ webber, I miss him and his whole page posts, in 1 post!

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Interesting from DT who usually LOVES him some European Models:

 

Wxrisk.com 12Z operatioal EUROPEAN modeal with regard to FEB 17 in the Middle Atlantic states .. keeps the Low to the south. The Model actually has 2 Lows which is a mistake ( there will only be one) . As I said before at this stage ENSEMBLE matter more so lets see what the Euro ensemnble says in 1 hour

UKie has one low which means it's either out to lunch or on to something. I don't think it ever had two lows

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No, there is some overrunning with a wave that forms on a front it looks like, then the eastern NC/SC/GA get plastered with the coastal.  This is very similar to last Feb's storm.

 

Hopefully someone corrects me if I am wrong.

 

The Euro was that close to a big time coastal.

 

Pack - I think you meant the late Jan '14 storm (Atl snojam 2) - yes, the Euro is a very similar setup overall at 500mb, though this one isn't as cold as far south.  One thing of note is that the baja moisture didn't come out with that one and it was still rather moist along the coast.  Here' the Jan '14 storm - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20140128.html

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Normally the precip doesn't streak straight east, like on this map, without mtns screwing it up, but one time in 99 or 2000, there was a storm that had a very similar track in January . We got about 4-5 inches of snow with temps in 20s! Even had Jim Cantore broadcasting in Greenville, we were in the bullseye

You know as I do....if it has to go over the mountain....typically we get shut out in our neck of the woods. Maybe this will be one of those rare occasions!

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12z GEFS panels show more agreement with the operational model.  Nearly every one laid down a wide stripe of wintry precip from AR to TN to GA/SC/NC and north & east. Some a bit north or south of this but here is the an example panel: 

 

iS0veVM.gif

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12z GEFS panels show more agreement with the operational model.  Nearly every one laid down a wide stripe of wintry precip from AR to TN to GA/SC/NC and north & east. Some a bit north or south of this but here is the an example panel: 

 

 

Me, Frosty and James would sure take that one! That gets a lot of the board in the game. More accumulation into southern VA than showing on operational models today and yesterday.

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12z GEFS panels show more agreement with the operational model.  Nearly every one laid down a wide stripe of wintry precip from AR to TN to GA/SC/NC and north & east. Some a bit north or south of this but here is the an example panel: 

 

 

Check Please.

 

As noted above, it is rare these make it over the mountains and hit GSP, but when they do, they are HUGE storms. I still believe this will become a Miller A with some good blocking above. We will see though. 

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Pack - I think you meant the late Jan '14 storm (Atl snojam 2) - yes, the Euro is a very similar setup overall at 500mb, though this one isn't as cold as far south.  One thing of note is that the baja moisture didn't come out with that one and it was still rather moist along the coast.  Here' the Jan '14 storm - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20140128.html

 

Yep, that was the one, for some reason I thought it was the first couple of days of Feb, but it was end of Jan.

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