CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still, 3-4.5 in Wake is nothing to turn our noses up at. Like you said, it's something. All good, it happens! I'm good with this too. A jog 75-100 miles one way or the other and we're just disputing snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is really an excellent Euro solution at this range. We are inside 5 days. We have a real threat. We have a very cold air mass in place prior to the event. There is a wide swath of snow. Amounts could easily be underdone right now. The usual caveats apply, but I like where we are now. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Post the 120hr map, I bet eastern NC get's hammered with a foot. Looks like central has the precip min, LOL. Much improved run, very close to being bigger, I like where it's at. Normally the precip doesn't streak straight east, like on this map, without mtns screwing it up, but one time in 99 or 2000, there was a storm that had a very similar track in January . We got about 4-5 inches of snow with temps in 20s! Even had Jim Cantore broadcasting in Greenville, we were in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Interesting from DT who usually LOVES him some European Models: Wxrisk.com 12Z operatioal EUROPEAN modeal with regard to FEB 17 in the Middle Atlantic states .. keeps the Low to the south. The Model actually has 2 Lows which is a mistake ( there will only be one) . As I said before at this stage ENSEMBLE matter more so lets see what the Euro ensemnble says in 1 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It looks like that 12z Euro puts my area In about 3 or 4 inches maybe? I'm colorblind so it's hard for me to tell.. lol I'm sure it will not be correct so it doesn't really matter what it shows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro was really, really similar to its 00z run...initial wave precip that weakens, then overall suppressed with round 2. Some moisture off the baja low gets injected into the initial wave, then another good chunk is injected into the second piece. You can see it on the loop here if you have wxbell - http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015021312/conus2/ecmwf_rh700_conus2_mouse.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is really an excellent Euro solution at this range. We are inside 5 days. We have a real threat. We have a very cold air mass in place prior to the event. There is a wide swath of snow. Amounts could easily be underdone right now. The usual caveats apply, but I like where we are now. A lot. Yep, let's see how the ensemble support looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It would be nice for folks in NC (including, of course MBY in the Sandhills) to see a true Murphy to Manteo event like the 12Z Euro shoes. Even my home folks in the Okefenokee might see some winter wonder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The word must be getting out with over 400 people reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eric Webb @webberweather 3m3 minutes ago Based on z500, Jan 2002/1982, Feb 5-7 2003, Mar 1980, & Dec 1989 are decent analogs for next wk's winter storm. #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eric Webb @webberweather 3m3 minutes ago Based on z500, Jan 2002/1982, Feb 5-7 2003, Mar 1980, & Dec 1989 are decent analogs for next wk's winter storm. #ncwx I'll take my powdery 2 inches on Monday , could care less about anything after that! Lol @ webber, I miss him and his whole page posts, in 1 post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eric Webb @webberweather 3m3 minutes ago Based on z500, Jan 2002/1982, Feb 5-7 2003, Mar 1980, & Dec 1989 are decent analogs for next wk's winter storm. #ncwx Jan 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Interesting from DT who usually LOVES him some European Models: Wxrisk.com 12Z operatioal EUROPEAN modeal with regard to FEB 17 in the Middle Atlantic states .. keeps the Low to the south. The Model actually has 2 Lows which is a mistake ( there will only be one) . As I said before at this stage ENSEMBLE matter more so lets see what the Euro ensemnble says in 1 hour UKie has one low which means it's either out to lunch or on to something. I don't think it ever had two lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No, there is some overrunning with a wave that forms on a front it looks like, then the eastern NC/SC/GA get plastered with the coastal. This is very similar to last Feb's storm. Hopefully someone corrects me if I am wrong. The Euro was that close to a big time coastal. Pack - I think you meant the late Jan '14 storm (Atl snojam 2) - yes, the Euro is a very similar setup overall at 500mb, though this one isn't as cold as far south. One thing of note is that the baja moisture didn't come out with that one and it was still rather moist along the coast. Here' the Jan '14 storm - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20140128.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKie has one low which means it's either out to lunch or on to something. I don't think it ever had two lows Disco from WPC that Lookout posted thought that the UKMet was an outlier actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Normally the precip doesn't streak straight east, like on this map, without mtns screwing it up, but one time in 99 or 2000, there was a storm that had a very similar track in January . We got about 4-5 inches of snow with temps in 20s! Even had Jim Cantore broadcasting in Greenville, we were in the bullseye You know as I do....if it has to go over the mountain....typically we get shut out in our neck of the woods. Maybe this will be one of those rare occasions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Disco from WPC that Lookout posted thought that the UKMet was an outlier actually That was before the Euro which shows a Miller B. It is a strange look to see a transfer with the initial low so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Euro snowfall map looks a hell of a lot like what this storm did only more intense http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jan 2011 is a great analog for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Euro snowfall map looks a hell of a lot like what this storm did only more intense http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ snow_20030123.gif Well, that storm was also colder than this event is progged to be and the energy was way stronger. I sure would like another one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here's where the new 15z SREF ends up. Looks like very little from the first wave in the Carolinas. You can see the 2nd wave getting juiced up at hr 87. and the 5H map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GEFS panels show more agreement with the operational model. Nearly every one laid down a wide stripe of wintry precip from AR to TN to GA/SC/NC and north & east. Some a bit north or south of this but here is the an example panel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, that storm was also colder than this event is progged to be and the energy was way stronger. I sure would like another one of those. Yes, I would take another storm just like that also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jan 2011 is a great analog for this storm. we don't; agree a lot but I agree with this 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GEFS panels show more agreement with the operational model. Nearly every one laid down a wide stripe of wintry precip from AR to TN to GA/SC/NC and north & east. Some a bit north or south of this but here is the an example panel: Me, Frosty and James would sure take that one! That gets a lot of the board in the game. More accumulation into southern VA than showing on operational models today and yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GEFS panels show more agreement with the operational model. Nearly every one laid down a wide stripe of wintry precip from AR to TN to GA/SC/NC and north & east. Some a bit north or south of this but here is the an example panel: Check Please. As noted above, it is rare these make it over the mountains and hit GSP, but when they do, they are HUGE storms. I still believe this will become a Miller A with some good blocking above. We will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 we don't; agree a lot but I agree with this 100%. Agree with Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How many panels look like this, though? Coverage or snow depth? There are I'd say around 8-10 showing this area coverage. Then 4-5 shifting it 50-100 miles north or south of that area. Then a few that don't snow much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here's where the new 15z SREF ends up. Looks like very little from the first wave in the Carolinas. You can see the 2nd wave getting juiced up at hr 87. and the 5H map: Should be.. looks like the Baja s/w is already phased in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pack - I think you meant the late Jan '14 storm (Atl snojam 2) - yes, the Euro is a very similar setup overall at 500mb, though this one isn't as cold as far south. One thing of note is that the baja moisture didn't come out with that one and it was still rather moist along the coast. Here' the Jan '14 storm - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20140128.html Yep, that was the one, for some reason I thought it was the first couple of days of Feb, but it was end of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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