mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:24 PM, SnowDeac said: Precip, almost moving into upstate at this time, riding I-85. And, as we'd like, it appears to be snow. We definitely want the precip shield to continue to expand up 85, and that snow line (newly created) in GA, to stay put. Unlikely, but something to watch.Per ground truth, rain in Toccoa, Ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:20 PM, WidreMann said: That seems ridiculously low. I thought you said you won't get anything? or did you not mean that literally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:28 PM, superjames1992 said: The RAP is still trying to shove the low into the Apps, LOL. Really wouldn't pay that much attention to it at this point aside from trends. Seriously the HRRR reflectivity doesn't look that realistic for tonight...dry for the most part until 11pm over Central NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:30 PM, Jon said: Seriously the HRRR reflectivity doesn't look that realistic for tonight...dry for the most part until 11pm over Central NC.... Agreed. I think using these models past hr 6-10 is really a mistake. Isn't using the HRRR and RAP past those ranges basically equivalent to trying to use the hr 84 NAM to forecast? If you look at run-by-run, you sometimes see substantial changes. The RAP and HRRR also look way off with surface temps to me in our areas. It has us getting into the mid to upper 30s. It's 23 now with a WB of 17. Good luck with that unless the sun comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I would keep an eye on the batch of precip rapidly entering upstate SC right now. If it hangs on, it could be the possible early start to precip in NC. Some of those returns definitely look strong enough to penetrate the dry layer. Edit: looks like someone already touched on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:29 PM, mackerel_sky said: Per ground truth, rain in Toccoa, Ga radar shows snow in clarkesville (habersham county) but its rain and 32.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:04 PM, phil882 said: I added a few more HRRR soundings that should update hourly: KCLT KRDU KGSP FYI products update around :20 after the hour for the map plots, and :40 after the hour for the soundings. Let me know if you have any questions. The HRRR does look a bit on the warm side of CLT Hey Phil! Great to see you posting in these parts of the woods. I remember you from the New England forum when I used to live up in Northwest CT. I can't remember did you or do you still work for NWS Albany? Appreciate all your knowledge and expertise throughout the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:29 PM, mackerel_sky said: Per ground truth, rain in Toccoa, Ga is that rain or ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:34 PM, ILMRoss said: I would keep an eye on the batch of precip rapidly entering upstate SC right now. If it hangs on, it could be the possible early start to precip in NC. Some of those returns definitely look strong enough to penetrate the dry layer. Edit: looks like someone already touched on it I personally believe that dry layer is overrated man. Precip came in here this morning on radar returns and instantly produced flakes so..hopefully it'll do the same for you guys down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:22 PM, Portsmouth Weather said: Could you post those soundings for southeast Va/Ne NC as well. Really appreciate it. As the last outpost between rain and ZR, I'd love to see KFAY. We're on needles and pins down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GSP newest snow total map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:41 PM, wncsnow said: GSP newest snow total map That 6-8 is right on our doorstep my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:47 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That 6-8 is right on our doorstep my friendA few miles in your neck of the woods could make a big difference! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:38 PM, drfranklin said: is that rain or ZR? Just Cold Rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:47 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That 6-8 is right on our doorstep my friend Yea.. im about 3 miles west of Marion, and literally it has me right on the 6-8 line but I don't believe it lol. I think 2-3 seems a good bet though, and I like how the precip has finally decided to move this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Serious virga on UNC Asheville's 15Z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:41 PM, wncsnow said: GSP newest snow total map Wow, they really beefed up the totals for the mtns in particular Avery county. They were barely in the 6-8 in their last update. Anyone have the same map from Blacksburg? I'd like to see how it lines up with watauga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:52 PM, AirNelson39 said: Wow, they really beefed up the totals for the mtns in particular Avery county. They were barely in the 6-8 in their last update. Anyone have the same map from Blacksburg? I'd like to see how it lines up with watauga I think they beefed the foothills areas back up, too. Wasn't HKY 1-2" last update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:53 PM, superjames1992 said: I think they beefed the foothills areas back up, too. Wasn't HKY 1-2" last update? Yup, they increased snowfall totals for most foothills and mtn areas. Must like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:53 PM, superjames1992 said: I think they beefed the foothills areas back up, too. Wasn't HKY 1-2" last update? What about Blacksburg? For MWK totals? Didn't GFS AND RGEM back way off on qpf? I'm on my phone can't see good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For RDU - 12zGFS showing about .35" IP and about .32"zr per Meteogram. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:55 PM, wncsnow said: Yup, they increased snowfall totals for most foothills and mtn areas. Must like the GFS From 15z weather balloon we launched at UNCA, 850mb is still cold with lot of room left. I can see why GSP is pushing for 3-4 inches here now. http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/sempe1415_iop1_snd01.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like my area could manage a nice burst of snow over the next couple hours before it changes over. That's a lot more than I was expecting as of last night. Looks like the GFS/RAP nailed the 850mb temp's for today and the NAM was out to lunch with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:32 PM, superjames1992 said: Agreed. I think using these models past hr 6-10 is really a mistake. Isn't using the HRRR and RAP past those ranges basically equivalent to trying to use the hr 84 NAM to forecast? If you look at run-by-run, you sometimes see substantial changes. The RAP and HRRR also look way off with surface temps to me in our areas. It has us getting into the mid to upper 30s. It's 23 now with a WB of 17. Good luck with that unless the sun comes out. 100% agree. The RAP is just way too Edit: WARM***(sorry I said cold before, doh) at the surface for RDU too, the inversion looks like crap at 4am whereas on most all other modeling it's stout. It's a joke to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 4:58 PM, BIG FROSTY said: What about Blacksburg? For MWK totals? Didn't GFS AND RGEM back way off on qpf? I'm on my phone can't see good. RGEM beefed up QPF some. The GFS was about the same. Looks like the model consensus is for 0.6-1" QPF or so. The SREF mean looks like around 0.8-0.9". That's enough QPF for a nice winter storm for us, Frosty, whether it's sleet or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:02 PM, superjames1992 said: RGEM beefed up QPF some. The GFS was about the same. Looks like the model consensus is for 0.6-1" QPF or so. The SREF mean looks like around 0.8-0.9". That's enough QPF for a nice winter storm for us, Frosty, whether it's sleet or snow. Appreciate that super James!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's 24 at noon. Unless the sun comes up, we won't hit 30 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still 18 here approaching two inches roads real slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not that it really matters at this point, but FWIW the UKMET looks a little further south than last night. Maybe a hair faster, as well. Compare: 12z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_012_0000.gif 00z: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 5:04 PM, WidreMann said: It's 24 at noon. Unless the sun comes up, we won't hit 30 for sure. 28 here. Gained 2 degrees in the last hour. Winds ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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