ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Keep in mind..a few mets thinking that a mix more likely than OTS What!? Lol, who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What!? Lol, who? Scooter had been up until yesterday..but he hasn't posted about it since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What!? Lol, who? Scott(CoastalWx) was a few days ago back when this was a big NNE hit and had mixing issues in SNE, but I think Kevin is digging up old thoughts here and making them current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM coming in NW of the 6z run so far through hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The evolution is different from about 24-36 hours ago...the storm is now being focused on the leading vort energy rather than the stuff that digs deeper behind it...so there isn't as much room for this to come north....when the deeper amplifying energy comes behind it, it could cause an inverted trough light snows behind the front running system That said, the front runner can still hit us, but there's little to no chance of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Scooter had been up until yesterday..but he hasn't posted about it since To be clear, I said at the time, I would worry more about mixing then a whiff. That was when the models had a big vortmax moving north with a parent low in the Great Lakes. Now, a weak s/w moves out ahead of the main trough and causes a low to move SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM coming in NW of the 6z run so far through hour 45. yeap @51 light snow into SEMA which it did not have at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The evolution is different from about 24-36 hours ago...the storm is now being focused on the leading vort energy rather than the stuff that digs deeper behind it...so there isn't as much room for this to come north....when the deeper amplifying energy comes behind it, it could cause an inverted trough light snows behind the front running system That said, the front runner can still hit us, but there's little to no chance of mixing. is this thread for both systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 is this thread for both systems? Yes...its really the same trough..the systems are not distinct enough to really call it two seperate "events". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It doesn't seem like we'd have 2 events. This would appear to be one of those where models sort of morph it into one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It doesn't seem like we'd have 2 events. This would appear to be one of those where models sort of morph it into one storm The models don't have two events anyway...there's no baroclinic zone to work with for the 2nd shortwave...it may blossom an area of light snow or snow showers on the heals of the first one...but it's not like it's a whole seperate significant system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Big jump NW on the NAM. 6z NAM 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This will trend a bit north I think. Given the vort max track over CVG-HGR-NYC, I'd expect light snow across SNE. Heavier stuff down in NYC/PHL/DCA. Not much blocking, so this thing is in and out quick. Probably a widespread 3-6"/4-8" event in the Mid-Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like the 6z GFS now. It had been way east and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 nice inv through on the nam.. if that is what it would be called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like $ht compared to the previous evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Did anyone know the RGEM ran ensembles? i sure as hell didn't. RGEM ensembles PNMPR_panel_066.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Did anyone know the RGEM ran ensembles? i sure as hell didn't. A lot of decent hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RGEM still looks like a scraper at the end of it's range...probably like a 1-3 type deal, though perhaps more in far SE zones like Cape and SE RI. We'll know more though once the rest of the 12z suite comes out and the RGEM will become more useful tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Extrapolated RGEM looks like it would be a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS still a scrapper 1-3" more SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS moved NW again from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS still a scrapper 1-3" more SE areas Yeah, but there's a tiny bit more proximity compared with the prior run. I'm not expecting huge leaps this close in, but hey, whatever. My opinion is that the GFS can do whatever it wants right now, kind of like how David Ortiz could've stabbed his own mother in November of 2004 and we would've been like "That is a good man." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RPM LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Have global ensembles showed any indication of this coming much west of the ops? I'm ready to write this one off for me--I don't see that this will amplify to come close enough. 5.7/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm intrigued by that mesolow spinup that's showing up. NAM kind of blows that up. Now I see the GFS has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm intrigued by that mesolow spinup that's showing up. NAM kind of blows that up. Now I see the GFS has it too. Bob--how'd things finish up out there for you today? That was an impressive band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RPM - the "KO" punch? Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here is the 72h panel of the GFS. Lower left box you can see the spin up just off Cap Ann. Here is the 12km NAM, you can see the same spin up a little further S and hugging the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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