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February 17-18 Event


moneypitmike

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There is an interesting situation unfolding on latest 00z guidance up until the GFS.  There are three stout shortwaves rounding the base and southeast side of the negatively tilted longwave trough over the OH Valley focusing upper level ascent and divergence in associated spots amongst the trough.  However the three shortwaves will spur three different low pressure centers.  The first shortwave is exiting off the east coast tomorrow morning, the second shortwave is offshore WED, and the third more potent shortwave is THU with potential third surface low formation just enough offshore to give CC light precipitation.  However the last two model cycles show this shortwave and surface low on THU moving a bit further west with each successive run.  However its 72 hours out still so we don't know the end result, but what's possible is that its moisture starved due to the previous two surface lows pushing the baroclinic zone out to sea to Bermuda, but upper level dynamics and negatively tilted trough could spark decent cyclogenesis hitting DE ME and CC with some light accumulating snows.  Still a lot of time to watch this shortwave trend in the right or wrong direction.

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That Thursday shortwave has me worried just a bit, a bit more favorable upper level environment and closer to the coastline track could spark another accumulating snow event for the coastline of MA, this is after the inverted trough.

Harv said Thurs has to be watched although prob a miss. But you may be on to something, esp for CC.
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