TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If the south shore somehow couped the inv trof.. jeezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Very meh. do you have look at 6hr panels or just the 24hr interval crap. I mean I would prob look to Meso's more for that feature anyway. But 6hr panels would give a "look" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 do you have look at 6hr panels or just the 24hr interval crap. I mean I would prob look to Meso's more for that feature anyway. But 6hr panels would give a "look" Looks OK for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks honestly like a 2-4 fluff job to me tomorrow with less 40 or more miles NW of BOS.Yup . We fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 some tricks accompany deep Ulls we know that Meh...I think if one were to go back and analyze the situation the other day it was more bad modeling than a surprise ULL. I'll contend models are having many issues, some of which is due to the fact they're missing most of the key buoy data they once got from the gulf stream and shelf waters. Each year we're losing more that aren't being replaced. any look on Euro's INV trough action Wed They never seem to work out, will have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clinch there was nothing surprising about the ull. One would only be surprised if they hugged modeling too hard and didn't account for the fact the storm would pack surprise and require nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yup . We fluff Speak for yourself. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0245115/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clinch there was nothing surprising about the ull. One would only be surprised if they hugged modeling too hard and didn't account for the fact the storm would pack surprise and require nowcasting. Yup and i think there will be more surprises when we have ull's go under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clinch there was nothing surprising about the ull. One would only be surprised if they hugged modeling too hard and didn't account for the fact the storm would pack surprise and require nowcasting. If my forecast was .4 to .7/.8 with lolli's and banding on top...how did I "hug" the models? Honest question. Most of the time when the upper bound was .7 or .8...all models were under .5 aside of the crazy wrong GFS. Where was your forecast for New Bedford to get 2 feet, or anyone elses? Nobody had that, or close to that...anywhere...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The second storm intrigues we more as it has a better sucker punch with it than the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clinch there was nothing surprising about the ull. One would only be surprised if they hugged modeling too hard and didn't account for the fact the storm would pack surprise and require nowcasting.Anybody who underestimated the power of a closed tight sub 500 vort max passing under us bailed and mehed to the end. Powerfully pedestrian, still getting blowing snow 24 hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks OK for Maine. hope so. ive got some ground to make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 these are so bad i dont know why i even look at them anymore i would be surprised to get more then an inch or two here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150216&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=42.065230569103335&mLON=-72.98365505740082&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anybody who underestimated the power of a closed tight sub 500 vort max passing under us bailed and mehed to the end. Powerfully pedestrian, still getting blowing snow 24 hrs later Yeah but answer the above question honestly. Maine was a bust so can't they argue the ULL failed to deliver? Winds were not what was predicted. We really didn't get close to hurricane gusts on the mainland. Bust. Western areas were low on snow, northern areas busted too. I guess I'm still asking for the widespread busted on W.E.... There were no widespread outages, and we didn't get anywhere near the winds in the previous storm. Not even close, winds really underperformed and probably 2/3 of the people in this forum in terms of region (western and northern) got the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is a nice hit for cape cod. Looks quite a bit better, manages to round the corner a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ML's were the key with regard to crushing areas that go it . I was thrown off not as much by qpf , but SLP position on globals as Saturday modeling wore on. Look where the eye was at 12z sunday . Look where it was modeled to be on GFS , other globals at 12z . Not close. Maybe some meso's got it at 0z as will alluded to further SW MLC deepening on modeling that night Anyway yeay nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM is a nice hit for cape cod. Looks quite a bit better, manages to round the corner a bit. The vort is slower this run compared to 12z, so that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If my forecast was .4 to .7/.8 with lolli's and banding on top...how did I "hug" the models? Honest question. Most of the time when the upper bound was .7 or .8...all models were under .5 aside of the crazy wrong GFS. Where was your forecast for New Bedford to get 2 feet, or anyone elses? Nobody had that, or close to that...anywhere...sorry. I didn't say you hugged the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah but answer the above question honestly. Maine was a bust so can't they argue the ULL failed to deliver? Winds were not what was predicted. We really didn't get close to hurricane gusts on the mainland. Bust. Western areas were low on snow, northern areas busted too. I guess I'm still asking for the widespread busted on W.E.... There were no widespread outages, and we didn't get anywhere near the winds in the previous storm. Not even close, winds really underperformed and probably 2/3 of the people in this forum in terms of region (western and northern) got the shaft. Maine interior busted because the ULL was further south, the East Maine areas had 18-28 inches. Pedestrian storms don't create 10-15 ft drifts,sorry if you didn't gust to 65 only 55. This storm was a beast,just ship me my Davis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ML's were the key with regard to crushing areas that go it . I was thrown off not as much by qpf , but SLP position on globals as Saturday modeling wore on. Look where the eye was at 12z sunday . Look where it was modeled to be on GFS , other globals at 12z . Not close. Maybe some meso's got it at 0z as will alluded to further SW MLC deepening on modeling that night Anyway yeay nam True, but Im specifically referencing Jay's post. There was a post by Will talking about a foot or more Worcester east which I said was reasonable given ratios. Turns out it wasn't just ratio driven, but still. Also turns out it does not appear any stations met the letter of the law blizzard conditions. Although a couple did have near zero visibility for a time, most were AT 1/4 or better, the modern definition is lower than 1/4, not 1/4 or better. In the NWS judgment the sensors or readings were unable to see true conditions even though they were able to register 0 at times, so 5 stations got nudged from almost blizzard to blizzard, based on the judgment that the readings were wrong. Whatever....nice storm and nice topping on the snow cake. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off I'm just trying to better understand the perception vs reality. Where specifically did I call off the storm or disagree with Will or anyone else on the foot plus? My biggest gripe was with the blizzard conditions thing, and the GFS. Based on what I'm reading above...I still think the blizzard thing is tenuous. But who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 People (including me early on) sort of misunderstood clinch or he misunderstood our excitement for the storm. He did meh the storm. But I think he was talking specifically in terms of meeting blizzard criteria and absurd amounts compared to what we have seen in the past few weeks. I guess if you ignore the snowpack and focus on the storm alone it wasn't historic, sure. But we can't do that. He was definitely poking fun at us hyping up the mid levels. But in the end it took the storm over the top into major category after the WAA ended. Without the boost we would have had an undeniably meh event. Instead we had thunder snow to cap it off in eastern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks OK for Maine. Yeah, That worked out great this past weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 People (including me early on) sort of misunderstood clinch or he misunderstood our excitement for the storm. He did meh the storm. But I think he was talking specifically in terms of meeting blizzard criteria and absurd amounts compared to what we have seen in the past few weeks. I guess if you ignore the snowpack and focus on the storm alone it wasn't historic, sure. But we can't do that. He was definitely poking fun at us hyping up the mid levels. But in the end it took the storm over the top into major category after the WAA ended. Without the boost we would have had an undeniably meh event. Instead we had thunder snow to cap it off in eastern mass. I was more poking fun because of the qpf queens stuff. Everybody has their thing, I never try to mock others in that regard. I did have some fun this time and we can debate forever whether this storm met potential. It WAS historic though, there's no doubt about that and I was definitely surprised by the intensity of both bands. They were a little shorter in duration than I thought, but ultra intense. It was a weird storm. I pretty much hate the term QPF queens, probably like some hate mid level monkeys. I think most everyone here understands the perils of each approach. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Jay there were some pretty ridiculous statements being made about the impact of this storm. Heck some outlets were actually telling people to stockpile water like a hurricane was coming. It always appeared to be a shorter duration, high velocity event. The cold is biting and the wind deadly as a combo....but you won't find many people on the coast that'll say this held a candle wind wise to some other beasts because it didn't. IMO it wasn't anywhere near the BOF 2015. I realized today my location stamp ois gone and will re-add that. This will hopefully allow for a better understanding of the areas I'm speaking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Man let's get back on topic. Blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The nam looked worse for PHL /NYC but has a lil weenie .25 at 18z now to clinches weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Rpm beginning to flag the inverted trough a bit better now, just off the E Ma coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Man let's get back on topic. Blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Go into this expecting 2-4 all of SNE. If you get more then even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ML's were the key with regard to crushing areas that go it . I was thrown off not as much by qpf , but SLP position on globals as Saturday modeling wore on. Look where the eye was at 12z sunday . Look where it was modeled to be on GFS , other globals at 12z . Not close. Maybe some meso's got it at 0z as will alluded to further SW MLC deepening on modeling that night Anyway yeay nam I think Tip on Sat. night showed the NAVGEM crushing us and it seemed to have the right placement of the SLP, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was more poking fun because of the qpf queens stuff. Everybody has their thing, I never try to mock others in that regard. I did have some fun this time and we can debate forever whether this storm met potential. It WAS historic though, there's no doubt about that and I was definitely surprised by the intensity of both bands. They were a little shorter in duration than I thought, but ultra intense. It was a weird storm. I pretty much hate the term QPF queens, probably like some hate mid level monkeys. I think most everyone here understands the perils of each approach. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Jay there were some pretty ridiculous statements being made about the impact of this storm. Heck some outlets were actually telling people to stockpile water like a hurricane was coming. It always appeared to be a shorter duration, high velocity event. The cold is biting and the wind deadly as a combo....but you won't find many people on the coast that'll say this held a candle wind wise to some other beasts because it didn't. IMO it wasn't anywhere near the BOF 2015. I realized today my location stamp ois gone and will re-add that. This will hopefully allow for a better understanding of the areas I'm speaking of. After reading page after page of this dissertation, it occurs to me that you are being very defensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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