40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah I just saw the later panels. That nails Essex county. I'm resigned to the first lame work week in about a month. I can recall once in my life receiving significant snowfall from an inverted trough (Dec 19, 2007), so it's on to the weekend. I look forward to maybe some cement with the one, and a cf inland from Hyannis, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Concensus is starting to move twds a big hit 1-3" of snow is the new "big hit"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think there's going to be a band that models don't show producing more. 2-4 seems good to me Yeah but that band is likely to be SE of most of us...probably like S RI over to SE MA...the vortmax is pretty strung out, so the band would probably be focused more on the lower level gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GGEM is a whiff pretty much. Whiff for all of us. Even DC is on the edge now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Kev, let it go...this one is slip sliding away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This system really looked far and away more southern QPF entangled with cold air from the N TV/OV-NE regions when it was in the middle range. Not that it means much but I even saw one DGEX run that had a 954 mb low stem-wound 60 mi E of PWM, with over 2" liq equiv avalanched on top of what we have right now. The implication there was what ... a 5 or 6 foot snow pack outside of drifting/wind confusion... But, here we are, and it's interesting that unilaterally the models are flat and flattening... This all begin (I noticed) as trends when the identifiable S/W material first relayed off the NE Pacific over land, since ~ two days ago. I am not sure over-assimilated strength is really the culprit here, though. Could be part of it, but there has also been a subtle but noticeable tendency in the various runs to evolve and simultaneously drop a James Bay SPV farther S in time. It may actually be the presence in the flow of the southern stream S/W helping to entice that activity... Either way, too much gradient has returned... The dreaded MIA rule states: Thou shalt not maintain geopotential height above 580 dm, whilst balanced winds are above 35 kts, or thou shalt risk pulling pants down to shat upon own fool's herring. The flow certainly smacks of a meat grinder... In fact, probably should reserve the following for the pattern thread, but I do see outright problem with the pattern producing storms for us through this week ... In short, it hasn't verified yet, no, but the ridge in the west is trying to retrograde back to that 130W-120W longitude (perhaps keyed into MJO?). That position sets up a deconstructive wave interference scheme E of the Rockies. It's an annoying type, too, because it's really kind of hidden in a way. At first glance, one may see these impressive cold Canadian heights/thicknesses ... promising to deliver cold to whatever wayward system finds its self near 37N/85W, but that steep gradient thing causes winds to remain too strong and what results is deconstructed wave damping. But that MIA rule is not absolute. It doesn't mean no system. It means a detrimental factor for cyclogenesis and/or system strength. That obviously provides a spectrum of possibilities, albeit less than stronger. There are actually two system in the mid week period. This thread does say 17-18, but the 2nd is perhaps more 18-19. Obviously we know what I am referring to so no sense laboring that out .. .but the inverted trough/Norlun-like structure is associated with a partial phase of additional southern S/W orbiting said sinking SPV after Tuesday near miss/Cape clip... The 06z was more robust with conserving southern stream intensity as it road N, such that it brought over .5" liq to the Cape and threatened eastern zones. 12z, backed off again.. perhaps just the NAM being the NAM. We don't trust this the Dr. Jekyll/Mr Hyde model for a reason, but still, the fact that it did do that for one cycle means that the physics are plausibly there. That's all on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Love the "MIA" rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well whatever happens..it seems like models are giving us hints that there might be some snow around in the Tues-Thurs timeframe this week. probably best to at least keep it in the mix of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ukie hits DC hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Congrats and enjoy it in NYC Of course WXHYPE would have that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let's all step back from the need for a fix for a few moments. This is a classic fast mover which DC typically feasts on. Hoping they can get 6-12. It would not surprise me to smoke cirrus tomorrow nor would I be surprised with a fluffy 2-3 inches. Bone chilling ball shriveling cold is upon us. Through yesterday BOS is -11.6 for February. BOS has a monthly high of 38 so far, only 2 of the first 15 days had temps going above freezing and we will likely have a full 2 weeks subfreezing with embedded subzero days. This winter is trumping Leon, 1960-61, and probably 1995-96 when all is said and done. We live in interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 easterners get a break and any hopes of epicosity are finally crushed in western zones.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So the Norlun is dead too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So the Norlun is dead too? No. Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No. Who said that? I was just reading the last page and it sounded like it was OTS. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was just reading the last page and it sounded like it was OTS. My bad. Think it is still for ME, although it shifted SW a bit as it starts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I was just reading the last page and it sounded like it was OTS. My bad. Norlun looks pretty robust Box AFD was pretty bullish for the event ,thou climo favors you know (GYX zones) unless there is something different about this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This one seems like it's for the snow starved MA. Jebman's ground is still bare .... that's awful. much of NC looks to get a major ice storm from this one. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro actually has a little hang back into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks honestly like a 2-4 fluff job to me tomorrow with less 40 or more miles NW of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro actually has a little hang back into SE MA. Looks like 0.10" to you and 0.25" to James' fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let's all step back from the need for a fix for a few moments. This is a classic fast mover which DC typically feasts on. Hoping they can get 6-12. It would not surprise me to smoke cirrus tomorrow nor would I be surprised with a fluffy 2-3 inches. Bone chilling ball shriveling cold is upon us. Through yesterday BOS is -11.6 for February. BOS has a monthly high of 38 so far, only 2 of the first 15 days had temps going above freezing and we will likely have a full 2 weeks subfreezing with embedded subzero days. This winter is trumping Leon, 1960-61, and probably 1995-96 when all is said and done. We live in interesting times. Leon is 1994 no? Yeah, we're looking good for as far as the eye can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like 0.10" to you and 0.25" to James' fanny. Yeah it's more for GHG on SE. I'm probably barely what is considered SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Leon is 1994 no? Yeah, we're looking good for as far as the eye can see. Yes. Leon Lett in the thanksgiving game of 1993 kicked off a historic winter..which didn't get rolling until the last few days of December. BOS is within an inch of that bad self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So EURO is inverted trough, or coastal storm scrapes the region with .25" of QPF equaling 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 CMC is close with the second surface low which deepens down to below 994mb. I think what's wrong with this shortwave is that its misplaced to the east a bit considering a negatively tilted trough over the Carolinas lifting the storm northward, but its initially too far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Close enough to keep it interesting. .25 ish is probably solid 4-8 or 3-6 down here. Enough to be a real pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Close enough to keep it interesting. .25 ish is probably solid 4-8 or 3-6 down here. Enough to be a real pain.some tricks accompany deep Ulls we know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Close enough to keep it interesting. .25 ish is probably solid 4-8 or 3-6 down here. Enough to be a real pain. any look on Euro's INV trough action Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 any look on Euro's INV trough action Wed Very meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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