moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not pin-worthy yet, but the event next week could certainly be interesting, How much snow comes in before the taint? Looks delicious for the hinterlands. I never saw the words "might be heavy at times" in a forecast this far out in time. Probably a typo. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Much colder with lows around 10 below. Wind chill values as low as 30 below.Washingtons Birthday: Sunny. Cold with highs zero to 5 above zero. Wind chill values as low as 30 below.Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around zero. Wind chill values as low as 15 below.Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Not as cold with highs around 20.Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Not as cool with lows around 15.Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My guess is snow to ice inland. Snow to some rain on coast. Doesn't seem like a "warm" system at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Is there chance at damaging ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edsmedia1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What are the current possibilities on timing? I'm scheduled to fly out of Logan with my family for vacation on Wed morning at 7 AM and I'm wondering if I should change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS has a snow event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I locked this until we are closer. We really don't want to start storm threads until we are inside of D4 since they will just be long range model play by play...and we already have a thread for that http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45553-model-discussion-for-february-2015/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I unlocked this...have at it. Weird turn of solutions last night...they are making this more of a Tuesday event rather than Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah this ones coming quick..Already in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 probably quicker arriving cause of faster departure of the current storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 probably quicker arriving cause of faster departure of the current storm Not really, it's now models choosing to amplify the first wave of two instead of the second. Don't think the timing of this storm had much to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yesterday I thought this was ots. Not sure now Harv likes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 still looks like central and northern NH least likely for much at all. Man, what a winter for toll land south. my mom lives in middleton mass and has now 45inches on ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This has a lot of promise, but I want to see one more bump north today at 12z to start thinking about more than a 1-3" kind of deal considering that the trend will likely reverse a bit back the other way as they usually do after making huge leaps. Last nights UKMET and to an extent Euro did that, if the others can trend to that depiction or better, we're looking good for a SNE wide advisory event I think. Nice thing about this is there will be a lot fewer screwzones, not really a storm where you're reliant on good banding to get into big totals and if you don't, you're screwed. Should be a fairly even distribution region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 As of now this seems like a 6-12 inch kind of deal. Pretty fast moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We are screwed if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We are screwed if this happens. Can Tip call anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can Tip call anyone? I am serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Curious as to why some are calling this a sure hit when most of the modeling I've seen and heard about has it staying mostly south. GFS certainly looks like a graze at best. Is it just the belief among many posters that these things inevitabley trend north? What did the Euro show last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Curious as to why some are calling this a sure hit when most of the modeling I've seen and heard about has it staying mostly south. GFS certainly looks like a graze at best. Is it just the belief among many posters that these things inevitabley trend north? What did the Euro show last night? The only one calling it a sure hit is Kevin(And no guidance supports a regionwide 6-12 right now except maybe the Ukie), but folks are optimistic because of the north trend on guidance and that the Euro/Ukie are now nice hits. 0z Euro .1" from the NY/MA/VT tripoint to MHT to extreme SW ME and south. .25" from DXR-HFD-BOS and south .35" from HPN-BDR-HVN-PYM and south .4-.5" Cape and Islands All at elevated ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Curious as to why some are calling this a sure hit when most of the modeling I've seen and heard about has it staying mostly south. GFS certainly looks like a graze at best. Is it just the belief among many posters that these things inevitabley trend north? What did the Euro show last night? it may end up being more of a CNE and SNE storm..but ensembles all are solid hits. Noone should be looking at qpf amounts now..just that the setup supports a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The only one calling it a sure hit is Kevin(And no guidance supports a regionwide 6-12 right now except maybe the Ukie), but folks are optimistic because of the north trend on guidance and that the Euro/Ukie are now nice hits. 0z Euro .1" from the NY/MA/VT tripoint to MHT to extreme SW ME and south. .25" from DXR-HFD-BOS and south .35" from HPN-BDR-HVN-PYM and south .4-.5" Cape and Islands All at elevated ratios. Thanks for the Euro numbers. From what I've seen there is no north trend in the modeling; it's actually trended further south/east since a couple days ago. But I know there's a perception that these almost always come north, and with the season SNE has had I guess I can understand why some would expect every storm to be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z today we should see a track narrowing. I'm hedging on an advisory level snow for all of SNE. We see these southern stream systems generally nudge N in the last couple days. That added to it being a southern stream it will have moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for the Euro numbers. From what I've seen there is no north trend in the modeling; it's actually trended further south/east since a couple days ago. But I know there's a perception that these almost always come north, and with the season SNE has had I guess I can understand why some would expect every storm to be a hit. It's trended north dramatically over the past day or so when it was a miss for a day or two before that, but you're right, this was originally a NNE storm with p-type issues in SNE before it trended way south through a SNE hit into a fish storm. SREFS are a bit south of the 3z run, but are still 0.25"+ for all of SNE and 0.10"+ regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We are screwed if this happens. You need to get a depth, dude. Must be near 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for the Euro numbers. From what I've seen there is no north trend in the modeling; it's actually trended further south/east since a couple days ago. But I know there's a perception that these almost always come north, and with the season SNE has had I guess I can understand why some would expect every storm to be a hit. Yesterday the op models had it OTS for everyone. It's come hundreds of miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 in stowe now..hoping this gets big enough to cancel tuesday evening flight out of BOS allowing me to stay a day or too extra even if in BOS..vacation extended is the goal..over achiever needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure how much we can amplify this. It's only a couple of days away we've got the big gyre ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure how much we can amplify this. It's only a couple of days away we've got the big gyre ahead of it. The hope is for the system to emerge further north and west so the room to go ots is reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The hope is for the system to emerge further north and west so the room to go ots is reduced.Yeah. Either way it looks like a quick hitter. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Keep in mind..a few mets thinking that a mix more likely than OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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