The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What's the eta on the wind, I take it's after the snow has fallen correct? tomorrow morning 12z, looks to be the peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yes, best wind should be after most snow has fallen, but some light snow may linger overnight when the wind starts to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NWS really needs to correct ongoing inconsistencies in their products. WWAdvisory for the western part of the CWA (Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer, as well as Philly/South Jersey says "accumulations up to one inch," whereas snowfall map and AFD range from 1-2" in the south to 3-4" north of 276/195. See below. The WWAdvisory for NE PA (Lehigh Valley/Poconos) lists 2-4" accumulations and the WWAdvisory for Morris/Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth lists 3-5" accumulations. While I'm guessing it's simply a typo, some readers may only go to the WWAdvisory and get very wrong information. They fixed the WWAdvisory. The locations that had 1" now are listed as expecting 1-3". Still a little odd that western NJ (Warren/Hunterdon, especially) would get less than the Lehigh Valley (2-4" predicted) to the west and counties to the east, like Morris/Somerset (3-5" predicted). Maybe they're assuming NE PA gets more from the clipper and areas to the east get more from the coastal/Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 8pm tonight...from HRRR. decent convective signature...considering how cold it'll be...and lack of other dynamics. most of the action to remain over SNJ? hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 looking slightly more sexier at 16z for same time frame. (8pm tonight) squall line for ACY ? alright...i'll shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 bacon i dont think you are that far offf, i think parts of jersey are really going to overperform here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is it just me or does the 16z picture Bacon Strips upload show the possibility of some thundersnow embedded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is it just me or does the 16z picture Bacon Strips upload show the possibility of some thundersnow embedded? Thunder snow potential has been modeled for days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thunder snow potential has been modeled for days now Yeah, I know, but it's nice to still have it as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM's still holding strong with the -20C line through the top half of NJ for Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looking forward to the squall line potential for this evening...just hoping that the winds later tonight and tomorrow don't cause long-lasting power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18Z Nam still has the little extra stripe of precipation running through central NJ. I never thought that would hold up a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18Z Nam still has the little extra stripe of precipation running through central NJ. I never thought that would hold up a few days ago. Quite heavy too for a period of time between 7pm-10pm in extreme SEPA and CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Quite heavy too for a period of time between 7pm-10pm in extreme SEPA and CNJ Any map, I'm in as SE PA as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Any map, I'm in as SE PA as you can get. I can't post my maps but both the NAM and hi res NAM show you getting 3-4 inches later with some 5 lolli's embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 May be this will help from Earl's place. http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=DIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The norlun tonight is going to be interesting. Someone in C NJ/ SE PA isgoing to see 5" IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The norlun tonight is going to be interesting. Someone in C NJ/ SE PA isgoing to see 5" IMO I think the top reported is going to 6 or 7 inches.. would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime May be this will help from Earl's place. http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=18Z&STATIONID=DIX Not showing up on my phone, but Thanks....this is gonna be a fun one.Found this over in the MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nice sunset here through the broken clouds. Reminds me of the calm before a summertime line of storms hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 wonder if Mt Holly will hoist a warning if short range models continue to show 4-6 for Monmouth Northern Ocean and parts of Middlesex and Burlington counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is still blowtorchin for Monday morning temps. Widespread record breaking lows if NAM verifies....not so much if GFS verifies. wonder what mount holly thinks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is still blowtorchin for Monday morning temps. Widespread record breaking lows if NAM verifies....not so much if GFS verifies. wonder what mount holly thinks.. every shot of record breaking cold has verified warmer than progged this year. i think the gfs is most likely going to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 every shot of record breaking cold has verified warmer than progged this year. i think the gfs is most likely going to be correct.If we get a fresh snowpack tonight of say 4-5" this would be huge in achieving those colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Surface low taking shape over Delaware and extreme Southern NJ. We could be in for a surprise in snowfall amounts. Definitely something to watch the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Surface low taking shape over Delaware and extreme Southern NJ. We could be in for a surprise in snowfall amounts. Definitely something to watch the next few hours. And enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Surface low taking shape over Delaware and extreme Southern NJ. We could be in for a surprise in snowfall amounts. Definitely something to watch the next few hours. Thanks for chiming in. HRRR has been on the money with the snows in SNJ so far. Pretty accurate with the broken line just to the west as well, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The banding on radar is really taking off right now. Yep, definitely sit back and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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