bugalou Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Should we be worried about these winds? 7 degrees outside and no heat source is not something I'd want. Mt. Holly has said in their AFDs to expect power outages. Granted 50-60 MPH max gusts shouldn't cause widespread problems, I would still err on the side of caution and be prepared. I know I am going to take tomorrow morning and work on my generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Mt. Holly has said in their AFDs to expect power outages. Granted 50-60 MPH max gusts shouldn't cause widespread problems, I would still err on the side of caution and be prepared. I know I am going to take tomorrow morning and work on my generator. I'm no expert, but outside of Allentown, weren't most places in the 50-70 mph range during Sandy. There were a ton of power outages with that storm. I would think, too, that with the almost extreme cold, tree limbs and wires would be more brittle than they normally would in "milder" temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm no expert, but outside of Allentown, weren't most places in the 50-70 mph range during Sandy. There were a ton of power outages with that storm. I would think, too, that with the almost extreme cold, tree limbs and wires would be more brittle than they normally would in "milder" temperatures. I agree. I don't want to hype nor dismiss the threat. I would just suggest everyone on the board be prepared. Between the winds and the single digit cold, a house or apartment is not going to hold much heat without power very long unless you have a fireplace. This cold can kill people, so protect yourselves and your family folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm VERY concerned about power outages. Although we fared well during Sandy (my town was one of the few spared any significant outages) that may not be the case on Sunday. Unlike more normal conditions, it won't take long at all for a house to chill to unsafe tempertures. Especially the older, less insulated, and drafty ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm VERY concerned about power outages. Although we fared well during Sandy (my town was one of the few spared any significant outages) that may not be the case on Sunday. Unlike more normal conditions, it won't take long at all for a house to chill to unsafe tempertures. Especially the older, less insulated, and drafty ones. I got screwed during Sandy...out 2-3 days but a couple houses down till the end of the block were just fine. Tomorrow may suck w/the winds but meh, I like adversity. Makes you think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I got screwed during Sandy...out 2-3 days but a couple houses down till the end of the block were just fine. Tomorrow may suck w/the winds but meh, I like adversity. Makes you think.... I did fine during Sandy despite widespread outages in my county. I give this threat a little more weight though because the winds will be coming from the NW. The trees are hardened to take east/north east winds from years of noreasters, but threats from the west tend to cause more damage. My house lost power for a week from a derecho in the summer of 2012 from brief western winds of 60-70mph, but there was no major damage in my neighborhood from Sandy with the wind field mainly coming from east/north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0Z NAM surface low came south some. Seems to me there is some increase in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not dismissing the wind threat -- there will be power outages. But one difference between this and Sandy is there were still leaves on the trees when Sandy hit. Let's hope it's enough of a difference that the outages won't be as widespread or long lasting. (I was w/o power for 5 days after Sandy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not dismissing the wind threat -- there will be power outages. But one difference between this and Sandy is there were still leaves on the trees when Sandy hit. Let's hope it's enough of a difference that the outages won't be as widespread or long lasting. (I was w/o power for 5 days after Sandy.) I don't think it will be any where near as bad. That said, those on the coastal plain and in the pine barrens should be prepared for a stray tree or two falling on a power line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0Z GFS slightly north of 18Z. Precip looks to be a tad less. I'm not even sure if the globals are the models to use at this close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 One thing I have really enjoyed about the lead-up to this event is the relatively stable nature of it. This feels like the first time this season that we might not get Lucied one way or another. I know the snow hasn't happened yet, I'm talking about the tendency of models/forecasts to trend in an unfavorable direction before an event which we've experienced so much of. Whatever the outcome, there hasn't been a lot of angst over that. Since an inch at a time is how we've gotten most of our snow down south here this winter, this event is being very much looked forward to. The added elements of wind and cold should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 One thing I have really enjoyed about the lead-up to this event is the relatively stable nature of it. This feels like the first time this season that we might not get Lucied one way or another. I know the snow hasn't happened yet, I'm talking about the tendency of models/forecasts to trend in an unfavorable direction before an event which we've experienced so much of. Whatever the outcome, there hasn't been a lot of angst over that. Since an inch at a time is how we've gotten most of our snow down south here this winter, this event is being very much looked forward to. The added elements of wind and cold should be interesting. I agree. Could surprise folks with brief whiteout conditions and a sneaky few inches tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I agree. Could surprise folks with brief whiteout conditions and a sneaky few inches tomorrow night.Welcome "home" I hope you brought the snow with you...but I empathize that you're missing THIS big one in "B"-town!! With my daughter at UNH I'm really feeling each and every flake that they've gotten after we droppped her off on the "eve" of their first blizzard... God did my timing suck or what!!!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Welcome "home" I hope you brought the snow with you... but I empathize that you're missing THIS big one in "B"-town!! With my daughter at UNH I'm really feeling each and every flake that they've gotten after we droppped her off on the "eve" of their first blizzard... God did my timing suck or what!!!??? Well, I can't complain, I've seen over 80 inches in the past 3 weeks so what's another 15 lol. I'll be around till Tuesday, so the snow magnet will be in full effect for the midweek storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, I can't complain, I've seen over 80 inches in the past 3 weeks so what's another 15 lol. I'll be around till Tuesday, so the snow magnet will be in full effect for the midweek storm! So coool.... So here's a question for you... we have read countless stories and seen incredible photos (from mostly Boston) but I know darn well that other towns up there have recieved much more snow than Boston in the last three weeks... can you name a few towns that have seen more (seems like Hull MA may be one)!! AND....if these monster storms continue up in NE I'll just have to take a roadtrip up to SE NH!! Be sure that's when we'll get ours down here as I feel pretty certain that by the time we reach mid-March we'll have had our share!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 model breakdown nam shows 2-3 inches region wide gfs shows 1-2 inches gem shows 2-3 from bucks county on north and 1-2 south high res WRF showing 2-3 inches for SE PA and central jersey 1-2 for S Jersey 2-4 seems like a good bet from bucks county on north, maybe higher in extreme NW regions, 1-3 from that line and south. 00z GFS really upped the ante with wind...10M gusts 50-60 mph region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 model breakdown nam shows 2-3 inches region wide gfs shows 1-2 inches gem shows 2-3 from bucks county on north and 1-2 south high res WRF showing 2-3 inches for SE PA and central jersey 1-2 for S Jersey 2-4 seems like a good bet from bucks county on north, maybe higher in extreme NW regions, 1-3 from that line and south. 00z GFS really upped the ante with wind...10M gusts 50-60 mph region wide. excellent summary iceman..Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro comes in with 2-3" Central jersey on north, 1-2 "SE PA on south,. Surface low exits off the delaware bay, good news for NY but I don't think it'll make much of a difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So coool.... So here's a question for you... we have read countless stories and seen incredible photos (from mostly Boston) but I know darn well that other towns up there have recieved much more snow than Boston in the last three weeks... can you name a few towns that have seen more (seems like Hull MA may be one)!! AND....if these monster storms continue up in NE I'll just have to take a roadtrip up to SE NH!! Be sure that's when we'll get ours down here as I feel pretty certain that by the time we reach mid-March we'll have had our share!! Actually, Boston has been close to the jackpot for the three storms combined. You don't have to travel far from the city to see the best spots in terms of snow depth. Towns like Quincy, Weymouth and Hull on the South Shore really got pounded with 30"+ from the last storm, so that would probably be the best area if you wanted to see really impressive drifts and the freshest snow pack. Looking at snow depth maps, it looks like just south of Boston is your best bet. I've never been, but the Blue Hills Observatory is a great place due to its elevation, and it's been pounded with over 103" this winter. Here's a link if you'd like to read more: http://bluehill.org/observatory/2015/02/epic-winter-of-2014-2015-sets-more-snowfall-records/. I would recommend a trip to the Blue Hills as well the Hull Peninsula for both the deepest snow and the craziest drifts, but you really can't go wrong anywhere in Mass east of Worcester. NE MA and coastal NH look like the best spots for the upcoming storm, so the town of Gloucester out on Cape Ann might also be worth the trip. If you have lots of time and really want to see the craziest stuff, Eastport, Maine has seen close to 100 inches in the past few weeks, with about 2 feet on the way, and depths may approach 60". It's really epic stuff up in Boston, and I would highly recommend storm chasing to anyone who has the time. Riding Amtrak home yesterday was just crazy, I felt like I was riding through Siberia. I honestly can't even describe what the last few weeks have been like, and I won't ever see anything like it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Actually, Boston has been close to the jackpot for the three storms combined. You don't have to travel far from the city to see the best spots in terms of snow depth. Towns like Quincy, Weymouth and Hull on the South Shore really got pounded with 30"+ from the last storm, so that would probably be the best area if you wanted to see really impressive drifts and the freshest snow pack. Looking at snow depth maps, it looks like just south of Boston is your best bet. I've never been, but the Blue Hills Observatory is a great place due to its elevation, and it's been pounded with over 103" this winter. Here's a link if you'd like to read more: http://bluehill.org/observatory/2015/02/epic-winter-of-2014-2015-sets-more-snowfall-records/. I would recommend a trip to the Blue Hills as well the Hull Peninsula for both the deepest snow and the craziest drifts, but you really can't go wrong anywhere in Mass east of Worcester. NE MA and coastal NH look like the best spots for the upcoming storm, so the town of Gloucester out on Cape Ann might also be worth the trip. If you have lots of time and really want to see the craziest stuff, Eastport, Maine has seen close to 100 inches in the past few weeks, with about 2 feet on the way, and depths may approach 60". It's really epic stuff up in Boston, and I would highly recommend storm chasing to anyone who has the time. Riding Amtrak home yesterday was just crazy, I felt like I was riding through Siberia. I honestly can't even describe what the last few weeks have been like, and I won't ever see anything like it again. JUST what I was looking for... Absolutely fantastic summary H.E.P aka "Kramer"..Thank you! Thinking New Castle/Portsmouth NH would be a fun spot to settle in... Beautiful historic homes right on the seacoast (even without snow in the air)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Actually, Boston has been close to the jackpot for the three storms combined. You don't have to travel far from the city to see the best spots in terms of snow depth. Towns like Quincy, Weymouth and Hull on the South Shore really got pounded with 30"+ from the last storm, so that would probably be the best area if you wanted to see really impressive drifts and the freshest snow pack. Looking at snow depth maps, it looks like just south of Boston is your best bet. I've never been, but the Blue Hills Observatory is a great place due to its elevation, and it's been pounded with over 103" this winter. Here's a link if you'd like to read more: http://bluehill.org/observatory/2015/02/epic-winter-of-2014-2015-sets-more-snowfall-records/. I would recommend a trip to the Blue Hills as well the Hull Peninsula for both the deepest snow and the craziest drifts, but you really can't go wrong anywhere in Mass east of Worcester. NE MA and coastal NH look like the best spots for the upcoming storm, so the town of Gloucester out on Cape Ann might also be worth the trip. If you have lots of time and really want to see the craziest stuff, Eastport, Maine has seen close to 100 inches in the past few weeks, with about 2 feet on the way, and depths may approach 60". It's really epic stuff up in Boston, and I would highly recommend storm chasing to anyone who has the time. Riding Amtrak home yesterday was just crazy, I felt like I was riding through Siberia. I honestly can't even describe what the last few weeks have been like, and I won't ever see anything like it again. Thanks for the useful information and your perspective. Sounds awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Kamu love your new squirrel!.. sure to bring us the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 JUST what I was looking for... Absolutely fantastic summary H.E.P aka "Kramer"..Thank you! Thinking New Castle/Portsmouth NH would be a fun spot to settle in... Beautiful historic homes right on the seacoast (even without snow in the air)!! You're very welcome my good sir. I really like Portsmouth for this storm. Heck, anywhere on the seacoast from Boston to New Brunswick is a good spot. I was recently up in Kennebunkport, Maine, just south of Portland, and its just incredible seeing 3 feet of snow literally right up to the water. Definitely worth the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You're very welcome my good sir. I really like Portsmouth for this storm. Heck, anywhere on the seacoast from Boston to New Brunswick is a good spot. I was recently up in Kennebunkport, Maine, just south of Portland, and its just incredible seeing 3 feet of snow literally right up to the water. Definitely worth the trip. lol...was in KPT three weeks ago today, just days before the first big one, nothing but some scattered remnants of a prior storm... very different picture now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Kamu love your new squirrel!.. sure to bring us the snow!! Thanks, lol. He's admiring the 0z gfs for next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Found it odd that Mt. Holly has WW Advisories, which show 3-5" for Monmouth, Middlesex, Somerset, Morris and Sussex, but only 1-3" for Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer and the rest of South Jersey (NYC-NWS has 3-7" for Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen and Passaic). The snowfall map, however, shows a general 2-4" south of 78/north of 195 and 4-6" north of 78, both east and west. I get having the advisories up even if the 3" criterion isn't met in many places, due to the high impact, but I think they need to update one or the other. NWS really needs to correct ongoing inconsistencies in their products. WWAdvisory for the western part of the CWA (Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer, as well as Philly/South Jersey says "accumulations up to one inch," whereas snowfall map and AFD range from 1-2" in the south to 3-4" north of 276/195. See below. The WWAdvisory for NE PA (Lehigh Valley/Poconos) lists 2-4" accumulations and the WWAdvisory for Morris/Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth lists 3-5" accumulations. While I'm guessing it's simply a typo, some readers may only go to the WWAdvisory and get very wrong information. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 340 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ007-009-015>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106- 141645- /O.NEW.KPHI.WC.Y.0008.150215T2100Z-150216T1600Z/ /O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.150214T1500Z-150215T1200Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-WARREN-HUNTERDON-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE... NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 340 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... AND THERE MAY TIMES OF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL MAKE ROADWAYS SLIPPERY AND BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. * WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO...AND NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS...METRO PHILADELPHIA...DELAWARE COUNTY PA...THE SUBURBS NORTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NWS really needs to correct ongoing inconsistencies in their products. WWAdvisory for the western part of the CWA (Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer, as well as Philly/South Jersey says "accumulations up to one inch," whereas snowfall map and AFD range from 1-2" in the south to 3-4" north of 276/195. See below. The WWAdvisory for NE PA (Lehigh Valley/Poconos) lists 2-4" accumulations and the WWAdvisory for Morris/Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth lists 3-5" accumulations. While I'm guessing it's simply a typo, some readers may only go to the WWAdvisory and get very wrong information. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 340 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ007-009-015>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106- 141645- /O.NEW.KPHI.WC.Y.0008.150215T2100Z-150216T1600Z/ /O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.150214T1500Z-150215T1200Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-WARREN-HUNTERDON-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE... NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 340 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... AND THERE MAY TIMES OF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL MAKE ROADWAYS SLIPPERY AND BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. * WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO...AND NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS...METRO PHILADELPHIA...DELAWARE COUNTY PA...THE SUBURBS NORTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. I noticed that as well. Even the forecast discussion doesn't match the advisory. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WSW SNOW HEADLINES AS THEY ARE WITH ACCUMS OF MOSTLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AND 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH. A FEW SPOT 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Fwiw the CRAS is super juicy this afternoon. 2-4" much of eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 model breakdown nam shows 2-3 inches region wide gfs shows 1-2 inches gem shows 2-3 from bucks county on north and 1-2 south high res WRF showing 2-3 inches for SE PA and central jersey 1-2 for S Jersey 2-4 seems like a good bet from bucks county on north, maybe higher in extreme NW regions, 1-3 from that line and south. 00z GFS really upped the ante with wind...10M gusts 50-60 mph region wide. What's the eta on the wind, I take it's after the snow has fallen correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the high res NAM has the norlun coming through central jersey tonight. giving a bit more to the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.