The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS showing 35 kt winds on Sunday for the entire area. 50-55 kt in S Jersey. Blowing snow is going to be an issue for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS showing 35 kt winds on Sunday for the entire area. 50-55 kt in S Jersey. Blowing snow is going to be an issue for sure. Not to mention the wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not to mention the wind chills. showing -15 to -25 region wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like the Euro has trended north wit this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like the Euro has trended north wit this event. I thought it looked about the same in our CWA...? Unless you meant the Tuesday-Wednesday thread - it does look like the euro came north a bit :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like the Euro has trended north wit this event. no real change, actually the euro setup almost looks like it should be better for our region and then putters out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 From the precip. map I saw, .10-20 " west of the Garden State. With great ratios may squeeze out 2-3". However, the real story will be the wind and low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So are any mets (or anyone else) aware of any past events similar to this one upcoming tomorrow? It seems relatively rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You've heard of Alberta Clippers, Manitoba Maulers, and Saskatchewan Screamers (maybe), but I for one had never heard of an "Ontario Scary-o", which may be the appropriate clipper name variation for this one. I'm not making this up, lol. From Wikipedia: ETA: Actually I'm not sure if it can be technically called a clipper, but it seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You've heard of Alberta Clippers, Manitoba Maulers, and Saskatchewan Screamers (maybe), but I for one had never heard of an "Ontario Scary-o", which may be the appropriate clipper name variation for this one. I'm not making this up, lol. From Wikipedia: clipper-variations-from-wikipedia-2-13-15.jpg ETA: Actually I'm not sure if it can be technically called a clipper, but it seems possible. Would love to see a GOMEX Growler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Would love to see a GOMEX Growler I like it. And so would I and a bunch of other people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Kinda anxious for this storm. We had a much smaller version of this last week I believe, early in the week. I don't think we even got an inch of snow, but the winds we got brought some white out conditions and snow covered main roads. Tomorrow is looking like the big boy version of the first. A few inches of snow it's going to get very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hmmm advisory just beep for Allaire. 3-5 inches with winds 50-60. 4-6 for cabin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mount holly updated their snow map: pretty much agreed all around, though i would of made the upper range 2-4 because I think we'll see some lolli's in there of 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So are any mets (or anyone else) aware of any past events similar to this one upcoming tomorrow? It seems relatively rare. I remember back in the early 80s a cold front clipper that produced heavy grapple (auto correct spelling) and sleet to brief heavy snow instant 1-2" lightning thunder and 45 mph winds I want to say this was 1983 then 2 days later 22" of snow I think I was 8 so could be off now 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So...these winds...are they really going to be as bad as predicted? Maybe that is a bigger deal than the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So...these winds...are they really going to be as bad as predicted? Maybe that is a bigger deal than the snow? If you believe the 12Z Euro maps, we're over tropical storm force wind at times. From MT Holly AFD ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES TOTAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, A HIGH IMPACT EVENT COULD OCCUR STARTING LATE AFTERNOON AS SNOW IS COUPLED WITH WIND AND COLD. May be we're looking at -20 to -25 wind chills? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015021312&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am surprised Mt Holly is going 2-5 for my area...how is western central jersey getting 5 inches out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am surprised Mt Holly is going 2-5 for my area...how is western central jersey getting 5 inches out of this If the Norlun hits you guys, then 5 is in the picture. 2 is more likely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If you believe the 12Z Euro maps, we're over tropical storm force wind at times. From MT Holly AFD ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES TOTAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, A HIGH IMPACT EVENT COULD OCCUR STARTING LATE AFTERNOON AS SNOW IS COUPLED WITH WIND AND COLD. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2015021312&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=255 18z GFS has gusts in the 50-60 MPH range at 10m south jersey. 40-50 MPH gusts region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GFS has gusts in the 50-60 MPH range at 10m south jersey. 40-50 MPH gusts region wide Thanks for the info. May buy gas for the generator tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 101.5 is saying just 1-2 south of I 78.....channel 7 also just 1-3 for the same area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still don't think this is a track/setup that lays down more than 1-2" for almost all of us outside the BENNY region. Even if you get good snow growth, flakes are going to get destroyed on the way down by these winds! I think 12:1 is the best we see outside of those in the Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still don't think this is a track/setup that lays down more than 1-2" for almost all of us outside the BENNY region. Even if you get good snow growth, flakes are going to get destroyed on the way down by these winds! I think 12:1 is the best we see outside of those in the Norlun. If I get to see a clap of thunder and lightning, it will be all good for me. I couldn't get my generator to crank tonight though, so I hope the winds stay on the low side of what is foretasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Found it odd that Mt. Holly has WW Advisories, which show 3-5" for Monmouth, Middlesex, Somerset, Morris and Sussex, but only 1-3" for Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer and the rest of South Jersey (NYC-NWS has 3-7" for Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen and Passaic). The snowfall map, however, shows a general 2-4" south of 78/north of 195 and 4-6" north of 78, both east and west. I get having the advisories up even if the 3" criterion isn't met in many places, due to the high impact, but I think they need to update one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wind will not be that big of a factor during the heaviest snow band for most areas to west....wind kicks in after the convective band for the most part....if modeling is correct Still don't think this is a track/setup that lays down more than 1-2" for almost all of us outside the BENNY region. Even if you get good snow growth, flakes are going to get destroyed on the way down by these winds! I think 12:1 is the best we see outside of those in the Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Should we be worried about these winds? 7 degrees outside and no heat source is not something I'd want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Latest Wxsim for the NW Philly burbs (15:1 ratio for Sat/Sun and 12:1 for Tues/Wed) Saturday 1pm Light snow temp 20.9 4pm Mod snow temp 20.5 (1.1") 7pm Mod Snow temp 18.7 (1.5") 10pm Light Snow temp 17.2 (2.3") 2am snow ending temp 14.0 (2.7") Tuesday 7pm Mod Snow temp 23.1 (0.8") 10pm Heavy Snow temp 21.4 (2.8") 1am Heavy Snow temp 21.2 (5.2") 7am snow ending temp 21.2 (6.5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here is my write-up on this. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LAV GUIDANCE ANDSOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH BY DAYSEND. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FRONT, THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A QUICKTEMPERATURE INCREASE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850 AND 925 MBTEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THIS GO AROUND. HOWEVER, DID GO A FEWDEGREES WARMER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.GENERAL MODEL TIMING HAS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ZONESBY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. THEHIGHEST QPF DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO BE AROUND .1 ACROSS THE WESTERNPARTS OF THE CWA WHICH MAY YIELD 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH AMOUNTSLOWERING WITH LATER TIMING FURTHER EAST.IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW WITH THEEXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA WHICH MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER40`S. DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK ENOUGH TEMPERATUREREDUCTIONS TO SUPPORT SNOW AFTER A BRIEF MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THEDELMARVA. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS HINTS OF A CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLLINE FORMING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TT ARE VERY HIGH COUPLED WITH STEEPMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BOTH OF THESE PROMOTE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVESNOW SQUALLS WITHIN THE AREA OF SNOW. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARENOT OUT OF QUESTION EITHER IN THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW, COUPLEDWITH THE INCREASING WINDS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE ATTIMES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 18Z SATURDAYINTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY FOR THIS SNOW EVENT EXCEPT FOR THESOUTHERN DELMARVA. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AFEW INCHES TOTAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, A HIGH IMPACT EVENT COULDOCCUR STARTING LATE AFTERNOON AS SNOW IS COUPLED WITH WIND ANDCOLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Should we be worried about these winds? 7 degrees outside and no heat source is not something I'd want. Yup, pretty good shot for 50 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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