Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does that stand for south west flow event?Yes, it will tap moisture from the gulf so sometimes a system like this gets confused with a Miller A.Edit: Great post here and a great read. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes, it will tap moisture from the gulf so sometimes a system like this gets confused with a Miller A. Edit: Great post here and a great read. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/ very interesting, always learning something new. thanks for sharing, i suggest everyone take a minute to read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Basically, this system's track is oriented too "west-to-east" to be considered a Miller anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you think in this type of setup there is much chance of banding? That always makes it difficult to forcast amounts for more specific areas. There's usually some sort of banding. I don't think we'll see the type of banding we saw last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 GGEM way south still...would be 1-2 inches tops for everywhere besides s jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UKIE looks pretty much the same, perhaps a tad north. Very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UKIE looks pretty much the same, perhaps a tad north. Very good sign. UKMET hasn't been great but good to see another model with a Euro like solution. Gives me some hope that the Euro will stand its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hard to tell with individual panels but it looks like UKIE is .35-.4" QPF for PHL. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hard to tell with individual panels but it looks like UKIE is .35-.4" QPF for PHL. I'll take it. Yes, UKMET is like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes, UKMET is like the NAM. PA_000-072_0000.gif NAM_000-072_0000.gif That's pretty sweet, where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UKMET hasn't been great but good to see another model with a Euro like solution. Gives me some hope that the Euro will stand its ground. No model has been good that's what makes this winter so damn tough I would say as a whole the European the RGEM and UKMET have probably been the best 3 but they have traded off from system to system so it's really been hard to know which one is going to get any particular one right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone see the CRAS? SEPA bullseye ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Anyone see the CRAS? nope, but I gotta take a cra* currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 nope, but I gotta take a cra* currently. You can take one all over the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 euro at 24 hours is a hair SE with the SLP, not a big difference though. Precip shield actually a hair north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 hour 30 low is about 25 miles south of 12z in central SC, moderate precip shifted south a bit but light precip range has remained the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 heaviest precip remains south, much less than 12z, bad trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Reports of heavier pedestrian traffic at the Walt Whitman Bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro QPF MPO 0.10 ABE 0.15 RDG 0.18 TTN 0.24 PHL 0.31 ILG 0.35 ACY 0.47 GED 0.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What the heck is wrong with the Euro this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro still would be 2-4 inches depending on ratio's. Beggars can't be choosers. For me personally, I only want 3 inches to get to normal snowfall on the year. Anything else is gravy. With the Euro now in I'm putting out my final call. 1-3" from Upper bucks/mont into the LV, 3-6" for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs up to Trenton, 4 to 8" for S Jersey. Hopefully we can manage 12:1 ratios but from what I've learned tonight on ratios, I don't think we'll see higher than that. Ray do you agree with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro still would be 2-4 inches depending on ratio's. Beggars can't be choosers. For me personally, I only want 3 inches to get to normal snowfall on the year. Anything else is gravy. With the Euro now in I'm putting out my final call. 1-3" from Upper bucks/mont into the LV, 3-6" for Philadelphia and immediate suburbs up to Trenton, 4 to 8" for S Jersey. Hopefully we can manage 12:1 ratios but from what I've learned tonight on ratios, I don't think we'll see higher than that. Ray do you agree with that? Yeah I'm not a big fan of super-high ratios with this one. But, I'm in Nevada, what do I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What the heck is wrong with the Euro this winter? It's broken bad. It's false snow signals have mared an otherwise enjoyable 30 days of winter. It should be taken out behind the woodshed and shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's broken bad. It's false snow signals have mared an otherwise enjoyable 30 days of winter. It should be taken out behind the woodshed and shot.I think it is just struggling with the progressive pattern this winter as all the models have this year. But I can't remember any time since I started following the models as an 11 year old kid, that the euro has folded so often 72 hours out from an event. Even when wrong it usually never has these jumps so close to an event as we've seen time and time again this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's broken bad. It's false snow signals have mared an otherwise enjoyable 30 days of winter. It should be taken out behind the woodshed and shot. What I don't get is how is can nail events 4-5 days out, like the Jan 26-27 blizzard, then progressively get worse as we get closer in. It's almost not worth staying up for any more. This not a very difficult setup, it's pretty inexcusable to crap the bed on a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's broken bad. It's false snow signals have mared an otherwise enjoyable 30 days of winter. It should be taken out behind the woodshed and shot. eh this is more of just a tick south, after a tick north, the differences arent as dramatic as people are making them out to be. for e.g. PHL could be back at .50 qpf at 12z and it wouldn't be a huge change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 eh this is more of just a tick south, after a tick north, the differences arent as dramatic as people are making them out to be. for e.g. PHL could be back at .50 qpf at 12z and it wouldn't be a huge change. correct, even a 25 mile tick north would make a big change with the gradient of this storm. hopefully the north trend that has been so prevalent all year long can help us out tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah I'm not a big fan of super-high ratios with this one. But, I'm in Nevada, what do I know... Would like to hear about how wind interacts w/snow ratios. From what I gather this will be a flat snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would like to hear about how wind interacts w/snow ratios. From what I gather this will be a flat snow. My 2 cents is that wind breaks up the flakes and tends to lead to a more dense and lower ratio snowfall. I know it also has to do with the environment in the snow growth zone and temps on the way down. This upcoming event should not be too windy so I'm thinking ratios may not be too bad, at least as far as wind impact goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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