The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro 2M temps are in the teens when the height of the storm rolls through. ratio's likely to be much better than 10:1 but again I don't like to talk ratio's until about 36 hours from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Per eurowx it looks like the 12Z has slightly less precip but it is essentially the same as the 0Z run. less precip for our northern section but from central bucks on south, it's essentially the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would be happy with that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro 2M temps are in the teens when the height of the storm rolls through. ratio's likely to be much better than 10:1 but again I don't like to talk ratio's until about 36 hours from the event. I think it's safe to say ratio's will be higher than 10:1...12:1 is what I would go by for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm in the middle. I have to see it to believe it but if this winter has taught us anything it is to not lock up any solution unless inside of 24 hours. IF the trends continue I do like where we sit. There are plenty of mets in NYC who were counting on the Norlun last night who would contend your inside 24 hour rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think it's safe to say ratio's will be higher than 10:1...12:1 is what I would go by for now. not necessarily, it could actually be too cold in the snow growth region giving us the "sand" snow that is usually 10:1 even though it is powder. cold temps do not necessarily mean good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I've seen tremendous ratios in zero degree weather with lake effect. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I've seen tremendous ratios in zero degree weather with lake effect. Sent from my iPhone completely different situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 not necessarily, it could actually be too cold in the snow growth region giving us the "sand" snow that is usually 10:1 even though it is powder. cold temps do not necessarily mean good ratios. Oh yes, I get that. Just a wait and see approach which is probably wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There are plenty of mets in NYC who were counting on the Norlun last night who would contend your inside 24 hour rule.Very true, which even further backs up the idea that this could trend better or worse tonight and into tomorrow. But generally 24 hours is lock it up timeframe. This storm SHOULD be much easier on the models than the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 so i'm a bit confused, i thought it was against board rules to post the wx bell euro maps because they are a pay site, but i've seen them posted in the nyc thread multiple times...does anyone know for sure? because if the board doesn't care, then i'll just post the euro as it comes out instead of doing a pbp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 so i'm a bit confused, i thought it was against board rules to post the wx bell euro maps because they are a pay site, but i've seen them posted in the nyc thread multiple times...does anyone know for sure? because if the board doesn't care, then i'll just post the euro as it comes out instead of doing a pbp.. Just contact the "higher up folks" and get a concrete answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 so i'm a bit confused, i thought it was against board rules to post the wx bell euro maps because they are a pay site, but i've seen them posted in the nyc thread multiple times...does anyone know for sure? because if the board doesn't care, then i'll just post the euro as it comes out instead of doing a pbp.. If you are referring to the snow map above that looks to be from Euro WX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you are referring to the snow map above that looks to be from Euro WX. no i'm talking about the euro snow map posted in the nyc thread that's from wx bell. and i've seen others from wx bell in that thread. i don't care either way but i feel it'd be easier to just post the maps in here than do a pbp, just thought it was a big no-no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 no i'm talking about the euro snow map posted in the nyc thread that's from wx bell. and i've seen others from wx bell in that thread. i don't care either way but i feel it'd be easier to just post the maps in here than do a pbp, just thought it was a big no-no. maps are great but I enjoy hearing how the event unfolds via a pbp!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 maps are great but I enjoy hearing how the event unfolds via a pbp!!! Ditto! (although I know it's time-consuming.. but reading the "color analysis" can be more satisfying and helps verify personal interpretations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15z SREFs also ticked up for the area, I would not be surprised to see the north trend continue. As it stands now, I think either 3-6 or 4-8 is a good call for Philly metro, probably more like 5-10 in S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My first guess would be 4-8 philly up to trenton 2-5 upper bucks to lv, 6-10 south jersey. But not a very confident forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thru hour 28 the NAM is a bit north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 euro ensemble mean has a little less precip that the OP... but just glancing over it looks like 11/56 that I think weigh down the mean. majority still show a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM is a good 75 miles SSE with the low than the Euro at hr 36... huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thru hour 28 the NAM is a bit north of 12z Yeah...just keep the slow but sure N trend and we'll be fine. Not the jackpot but a nice winter storm....I won't complain w/cold air to follow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM roughly the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 nam's a decent front-end dump. 0.30 to 0.50 for SNJ. all snow. but considering it's the nam... 0.20 to 0.35 is more the 'real' value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM actually ends up being almost identical to 12z, about .25-.3" QPF for PHL and the immediate burbs, which translates to 3-5" with ratios. Not bad considering its one of the most southern models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM roughly the same as 12z Looks like it moved N 25+ miles N but I'm not great at reading maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like it moved N 25+ miles N but I'm not great at reading maps... Initially it looked like it would head north, but it ended up coming back to its 12z solution for this area. It's the 18z NAM though, so it's going to do weird stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 maps are great but I enjoy hearing how the event unfolds via a pbp!!! I do too, but I wish you guys would use actual cities instead of airport codes. I don't know half of them and it's hard to figure out where you're indicationg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 so i'm a bit confused, i thought it was against board rules to post the wx bell euro maps because they are a pay site, but i've seen them posted in the nyc thread multiple times...does anyone know for sure? because if the board doesn't care, then i'll just post the euro as it comes out instead of doing a pbp.. From what I understand, from reading through the threads, is that if it's posted on social media first it's ok. Otherwise, it's a no no. Hope that helps, although you may want to confirm anyway just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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