wkd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nice pbp Iceman. Like the way you just told what was shown and didn't try to guess at an outcome before the run was finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At 60 hrs. 12Z GFS has even a more amped western ridge than the 6Z at 66Hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GFS is mostly a miss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GFS is mostly a miss.. Close though. Only slightly more east than 6Z. At this range I think we are in a good spot. Upper levels still look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Out to sea in 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm out and about today so no 12z pbp, I'll post the details though when I'm back this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Would be the icing on the cake this winter if Raleigh/Norfolk get a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There's still some time for this event, which now also seems to have multiple pieces to it. We need to see what happens with the current storm over the next 24 to 36 hours before we can start to nail down what the next event will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 18Z NAM looks like it will be very close at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Unfortunately latest models are not moving west. Pretty much a whiff as of now. 18 Z GFS has may be an inch or two and the Euro remember the Euro map from a few days ago having us in the 18 inch range. It's like watching Tiger Woods going downhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Unfortunately latest models are not moving west. Pretty much a whiff as of now. 18 Z GFS has may be an inch or two and the Euro remember the Euro map from a few days ago having us in the 18 inch range. It's like watching Tiger Woods going downhill. I don't know. I'm feeling this one. Set up is just too nice to let us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Dgex (nam extended) is a hit. On phone sorry no map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cras is also a hit if u factor in its bias to be over amped, too warm, and too far west :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not giving up on it yet I remember the boxing day storm that looked like a fish storm until 72 hours out, when it came back west. Holding out hope that happens again. set up is completely different than that storm though. If we over perform tonight, I won't mind if it even scrapes us with another 1-3 inches. Some ensembles on the euro still have good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z NAM has a rather weird surface evolution and ends up slightly east of the 18Z but it still has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS ticked back west and scrapes the area with 1-3 inches, 2-4" in south jersey. In this winter, I'll still take that, just would be painful to see a complete OTS solution. Also sped the storm up. way faster than 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z GFS focuses on the first piece of energy whereas the 18Z focused on the second. Overall the outcome seems fairly similar. No major snow. Lots of runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 euro hour 48 slp further north near the Tenn border. also stronger at 1003 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hour 54 low at 1003 at SC border. about 50 miles NW from 12z. precip at the western PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hour 60 low down to 999 off the virginia coast. low 75 miles N from 12z, precip throughout the entire region. moderate precip all of se PA. this is all snow btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Surface temps don't get above 20 on this run except in coastal NJ. Temps don't even get above 10 in the Lehigh Valley. Assuming wind isn't that strong, some very nice ratios are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hour 66 low scoots due NNE precip exits the area.still a good hit for SE PA and NJ. 4-6 for all of SE PA, 2-4 for LV, 6-8" for south jersey. definitely a positive trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hour 66 low scoots due NNE precip exits the area.still a good hit for SE PA and NJ. 4-6 for all of SE PA, 2-4 for LV, 6-8" for south jersey. definitely a positive trend tonight.well said...Thanks IceMan!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hour 66 low scoots due NNE precip exits the area.still a good hit for SE PA and NJ. 4-6 for all of SE PA, 2-4 for LV, 6-8" for south jersey. definitely a positive trend tonight. Sounds good - thanks for the pbp and synopsis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Surface temps don't get above 20 on this run except in coastal NJ. Temps don't even get above 10 in the Lehigh Valley. Assuming wind isn't that strong, some very nice ratios are possible. Now we're talking a wintertime pattern :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 hour 66 low scoots due NNE precip exits the area.still a good hit for SE PA and NJ. 4-6 for all of SE PA, 2-4 for LV, 6-8" for south jersey. definitely a positive trend tonight. Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Now we're talking a wintertime pattern :-) Looks like this could be your storm, height of a squirrel even deep if trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 oh i meant low goes due ENE not NNE...but the precip totals remain the same, it doesn't turn up the coast but it exits off the coast much further north giving us more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Eurowx maps show 8-10" SEPA north to south, 6-8" Lehigh Valley. Must be using high ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Eurowx maps show 8-10" SEPA north to south, 6-8" Lehigh Valley. Must be using high ratios yep, my snowfall maps are based on 10:1. higher ratio's certainly look possible but i don't like talking about them until about 36 hours out when it is much more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.