KamuSnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'll take it. euro2-19.png If that verifies (which would be great for us), do you think HEPennypacker will be able to find Boston when he goes back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'll take it. euro2-19.png That has Saturday/Sunday's "event" in it as well so knock off an inch or two for our area and a lot of the snow showing from the NYC are NE. This is almost like a 2010 type scenario on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The Euro snowfall map must have some incredible snowfall rates as fast as this storm moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'll take it. euro2-19.png This map combines the next two events, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This map combines the next two events, I think. It does. Chop a couple inches off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol... We could cut in in half and we'd still be in our glory!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like this threat overall. The slower trend of the low coming out of the plains has allowed the confluence to set up farther southeast. Thus the more eastern track today. 12Z GEFS has only one warm dud and a few really big hits. Also think the idea of a second wave more wed into Thu is on the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like this threat overall. The slower trend of the low coming out of the plains has allowed the confluence to set up farther southeast. Thus the more eastern track today. 12Z GEFS has only one warm dud and a few really big hits. Also think the idea of a second wave more wed into Thu is on the table as well. Glad to see you on board with this one after the super yawn comment a few days ago. But you did preface it with no snow till Brownsville to Tampa track, fairly close. Hope to see your analysis as this threat evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This threat has the potential to be the biggest snowmaker of the season for most places in our region (particularly those south and east of the Lehigh Valley). Still there's a lot of time for this to shift in almost any direction. I'd love to see it look this on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One of these has got to hit, right?! Right?!?!? Even a blind storm finds us nuts sometimes, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18Z GFS continues the east trend - no surprise. Eventually this may be a whiff to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18Z GFS continues the east trend - no surprise. Eventually this may be a whiff to right.Oh, no doubt it will be a sheared out mess based on seasonal trends. Southern stream = sheared messes, northern stream = congrats Boston. Now we need the two streams to merge at the right time and place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Oh, no doubt it will be a sheared out mess based on seasonal trends. Southern stream = sheared messes, northern stream = congrats Boston. Now we need the two streams to merge at the right time and place. The NAO has teased us for months. But may be as you said looking at forecasts late February to early March may provide enough Atlantic blocking. Shame we wasted a record positive PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18Z GFS continues the east trend - no surprise. Eventually this may be a whiff to right. The GFS, at least before the upgrade, is almost always too far SE with Miller A's in this time frame and tends to shear storms out only to go back to it's original solution around the 96 hour mark. It's well documented, and unless the rest of the models follow suit with the east trend, I wouldn't be too concerned at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not about to live and die by a few model runs 5 days out... GFS has a historically SE bias with these. Plus, as doorman pointed out in the NY thread, the two highs in the atlantic should keep this close enough to the coast for significant snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hope the two arctic highs negate a positive NAO and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS, at least before the upgrade, is almost always too far SE with Miller A's in this time frame and tends to shear storms out only to go back to it's original solution around the 96 hour mark. It's well documented, and unless the rest of the models follow suit with the east trend, I wouldn't be too concerned at this time. Not about to live and die by a few model runs 5 days out... GFS has a historically SE bias with these. Plus, as doorman pointed out in the NY thread, the two highs in the atlantic should keep this close enough to the coast for significant snowfall This will be the first opportunity to evaluate the upgraded GFS. We dont know for certain if that bias has been corrected or not. (my opinion? I bet its still there to some degree) It will be interesting to see if the upgrade makes any difference in regards to the SE bias present on Miller A's from the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAO has teased us for months. But may be as you said looking at forecasts late February to early March may provide enough Atlantic blocking. Shame we wasted a record positive PDO. It's one run. It will trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hope the two arctic highs negate a positive NAO and AO. ...that won't matter if it keeps trending east like you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We should have a much better idea in the next 2 days or so how this will go, but not tonight, obviously... The CMC has been decent lately (as far as verification). The UKMET has been showing an OTS solution for a couple of days. The GFS seems to have the general idea within 5 or 6 days, wanders off for 2 or 3 days, then comes back closer to what it showed 5 or 6 days out. As to whether it's a SE bias at play or not, if the rest of the models follow suit over the next 2 days, then I'd start to worry. If they don't, then I'd expect the GFS to come back. I don't think any model at this point has a lock on how things will evolve. I have no idea either. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed and rooting for snow :-). Meanwhile Saturday should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS and GGEM look really weak and awful. Wow. I'll be renting a party bus for anyone who wants to join me, destination is the Walt Whitman Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 This system is still 120 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This system is still 120 hours away. I know... I know... but I am nearing the breaking point with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro suppressed. Waffles waffles everywhere (hmm, now I'm hungry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is a sheared mess that misses the phase at 6z. CMC is a miss. Euro is a sheared mess. Game over? Still a lot of time but this is playing out like the other Southern stream systems this year so far to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS and GGEM look really weak and awful. Wow. I'll be renting a party bus for anyone who wants to join me, destination is the Walt Whitman Bridge. Confucious say...One should not get their expectation up too high this year more than 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 big surprises, model waffles. since we have a bizzlion runs no worries yet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 this one's coming back. you just gotta believe hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 this one's coming back. you just gotta believe hard enough. 12Z GFS looks much better than 6Z . Trended back west. If we can't get anything out of this outstanding 500mb pattern I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12Z GFS looks much better than 6Z . Trended back west. If we can't get anything out of this outstanding 500mb pattern I give up. Yep GFS trended back west/not sheared out big time at 12z. storm cancel, cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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