yankeex777 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2-4 for TTN is fair. I don't think we get more than what we got on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I tossed out 2-5 for Ewing yesterday morning, and so far I see no strong reason to change that. NAM probably is too wet but ratios could prop up some of the more lackluster QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I tossed out 2-5 for Ewing yesterday morning, and so far I see no strong reason to change that. NAM probably is too wet but ratios could prop up some of the more lackluster QPF amounts. I agree with this. Stunning that TTN hasn't topped a 5 inch storm all year. We have been too far West, too far south and now too far north. Interesting winter to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I agree with this. Stunning that TTN hasn't topped a 5 inch storm all year. We have been too far West, too far south and now too far north. Interesting winter to say the least. Well, PHL hasn't topped 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't like this event for Reading at all. I'm going to say c-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 UKMET actually got slightly wetter, but I think you have to toss it at this point. It's about .45-.5" QPF at PHL which just isn't going to happen. I think the ceiling in PA is about 3" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Srefs really jumped north and wetter fwiw. Brings 8" line across Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Srefs really jumped north and wetter fwiw. Brings 8" line across Philly. Well, 9Z was. I would suspect 15Z will cut it back based on its tendency to follow the NAM. BTW, that's highly based off of ratios (QPF is about a half inch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is the obs thread comin' out soon? Eh, I think SREF is gonna bust high. 8 inches in Philly seems pretty unlikely, though, it would be a pleasant surprise. I liked the UKMET, gave me around 6 inches which I would appreciate since the highest I've seen this winter is probably 3 inches. Eh, UKMET was probably a little too wet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think if we've learned anything this winter, it's that without complete model consensus you have to go with the most conservative guidance. I would ignore the SREFs anyways, and the UKIE just seems like it's out to lunch. Unless the Euro shows a major change, this is probably a 1-3" deal around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Agreed....im not budging on my c-2" in my area because of the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looking at the radar the snow is struggling to push north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z Euro ticked south a little also, maybe 0.05 to 0.10" less qpf. Nothing radical, just in line with most of the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 By the time we get to this 'event', we'll get more from the snow squalls with the next front. Of course anything from that will get blown away. Kind of like living in Barrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The snow on the eurowx map I posted resulted from 0.16" total precip in my area. That's about a 16:1 ratio. Edit: The data shows 4" snow for Philly from 0.25" precip. Also 16:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ECM gives me near exactly what i need for climo normal winter snow 2.8" giddyup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ECM gives me near exactly what i need for climo normal winter snow 2.8" giddyup really most of the models are pretty close for the PHL area anyway, when you see a tick from .36 to .31 that is just noise IMO. I think 2-4 is a nice forecast for PHL, maybe closer to 4 in the southern parts. like ray said, not hard to be the biggest snowfall for the season in PHL. (although as usual the airport readings are a little deceiving, one year they were pretty much higher than everywhere else, and you dont have to stray very far this year from the airport to have had more than 1.5 inch in any event (for instance i was 10 miles north of the city this weekend and had about 3 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i see NWS has 3-5 for PHL, no argument with that either, it is all within the realm of realism. one thing i know is that whatever falls is going nowhere for 4 or 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Taking everything into account, I'll say 1" to 2" of snow LV and Poconos, 2" to 3" in northern half of Chester, Bucks and Montgomery counties, and 3" to 4" in southern halves of those counties as well as Delaware and Philadelphia counties. 4" to 7" in southern NJ and Delaware. For Ray, Trenton is in the 3" to 4" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 not loving the HRRR, which is getting close to in range. definitely some subtle southern signs today, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.