KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Seems there have been some minor southward adjustments with some models for the 0z runs...hopefully it's just that as opposed to a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wind shouldn't have much impact on ratios in this one but the snow growth zone temps are not ideal. 12:1 seems doable. 15:1 probably a struggle. I wouldn't go tossing around 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not feeling great about this now, really thought we'd see better trends with tonight's models. I'm thinking 2-3 for the city and immediate burbs, 3-5 SNJ and 1-3 north of the city. We don't need much for things to get better, but it's getting to be too late now. Hopefully we catch a deform band and I'm wrong, but this doesn't sit well with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro QPF MPO 0.10 ABE 0.15 RDG 0.18 TTN 0.24 PHL 0.31 ILG 0.35 ACY 0.47 GED 0.69 Here are the other biggies besides the EC... 2.5=0.1", 5.0=0.2", 7.5=0.3", 10=0.4", 15=0.6", 20=0.8", 25=1.0", etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 What the heck is wrong with the Euro this winter? It's broken bad. It's false snow signals have mared an otherwise enjoyable 30 days of winter. It should be taken out behind the woodshed and shot. They need to do a system restore on it....preferably back to like 10/1/2013 or so. (remove all updates since) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 6Z NAM is a smidge wetter north, a smidge drier south... basically, less of a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm starting to see positive trends on the short term models - less confluence, stronger low, more expansive precip - these positive changes will show onto the surface on the models throughout the day - cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm starting to see positive trends on the short term models - less confluence, stronger low, more expansive precip - these positive changes will show onto the surface on the models throughout the day - cheers! Would like to know which ones you mean... SREF dried a bit, RGEM is pretty dry, NAM is wetter than those two but really very little change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6Z NAM is a smidge wetter north, a smidge drier south... basically, less of a gradient. Looks like the slp might be a tad north in spots as well, for both the 12km and 4km. Overall, a somewhat reassuring run for the NAM at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Would like to know which ones you mean... SREF dried a bit, RGEM is pretty dry, NAM is wetter than those two but really very little change. Right now, I've started analyzing RAP and HRRR hourlies at the 5h/7h level and continue to see signs that this is coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Right now, I've started analyzing RAP and HRRR hourlies at the 5h/7h level and continue to see signs that this is coming north Those models are virtually worthless at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Those models are virtually worthless at this range. They are usually good at picking up on changes first - wouldn't consider any model worthless. You just have to play it for its strength and account for its weaknesses/tendencies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6Z GFS coming in 25-50 mile north with a stronger low, a bit wetter as well - 0.25-.50 snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 6Z GFS coming in 25-50 mile north with a stronger low, a bit wetter as well - 0.25-.50 snj Difference from 0Z: MPO +0.01 ABE +0.04 RDG +0.03 TTN +0.03 PHL +0.03 ILG +0.04 ACY +0.04 GED +0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Difference from 0Z: MPO +0.01 ABE +0.04 RDG +0.03 TTN +0.03 PHL +0.03 ILG +0.04 ACY +0.04 GED +0.05 Pretty much stayed the same which is fine at this point. I would go with 2-4" for my area (local burbs)...3-5" for Philly...1-3" further N/W burbs and 4-7" heading into NJ. (S/E) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 At this point I will gladly take any positive trend no matter how small.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 At this point I will gladly take any positive trend no matter how small.. At this point no south trend is a positive trend, imo. Anything northward is a bonus. So far so good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Unfortunately we are getting to the end of the road for this winter for locked in all snow events. Maybe one more this weekend and even that could be a slop mix. Then we'll be battling rising normal temperatures, a week 3 and 4 pattern showing normal temperatures which by then is mid-upper 40s, so you're stuck with trying to get snow at night. Also a pattern that will favor cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Unfortunately we are getting to the end of the road for this winter for locked in all snow events. Maybe one more this weekend and even that could be a slop mix. Then we'll be battling rising normal temperatures, a week 3 and 4 pattern showing normal temperatures which by then is mid-upper 40s, so you're stuck with trying to get snow at night. Also a pattern that will favor cutters. While u may be right, we still have at least 6 weeks of legit threats to track for our area. Wasn't the best winter ever but we've had an 'ok' run. I will take tracking slop over tracking 100 degree weather any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No significant changes on the 12Z nam. Perhaps a hair less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 No significant changes on the 12Z nam. Perhaps a hair less precip. Seems to be the MO this winter. Bring on Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 0Z NAM QPF MPO 0.11 ABE 0.17 RDG 0.22 TTN 0.31 PHL 0.41 ILG 0.43 ACY 0.63 GED 0.84 12Z NAM QPF and diff from 0Z: MPO 0.07 -0.04 ABE 0.14 -0.03 RDG 0.19 -0.03 TTN 0.33 +0.02 PHL 0.36 -0.05 ILG 0.33 -0.10 ACY 0.58 -0.05 GED 0.78 -0.06 Odd that TTN went up and everyone else went down... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Im thinking this is generally a C-2" system up my way in Warminster with 2" being the exception and the coating being the general rule. Not impressed with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ttn=jp you doubled my amount last event and I am what, maybe 15-20 mi. north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Im thinking this is generally a C-2" system up my way in Warminster with 2" being the exception and the coating being the general rule. Not impressed with guidance. Probably a good guess but there is always the chance of last minute surprises. Even with 2" they will cancel schools around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm thinking this is one of those situations where the arctic air eats away at the precip shield to the NW. After battle virga for a few hours, I expect 1"-2" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 0Z GFS QPF MPO 0.11 ABE 0.16 RDG 0.13 TTN 0.21 PHL 0.24 ILG 0.23 ACY 0.36 GED 0.56 12Z GFS QPF and difference from 0Z MPO 0.08 -0.03 ABE 0.12 -0.05 RDG 0.10 -0.03 TTN 0.18 -0.03 PHL 0.21 -0.03 ILG 0.20 -0.03 ACY 0.36 0.00 GED 0.63 +0.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm thinking this is one of those situations where the arctic air eats away at the precip shield to the NW. After battle virga for a few hours, I expect 1"-2" imby. I've been thinking the same thing, lots of virga the first (few?) hours. I wonder if that's why the qpf totals (on the northwest side of the precip. shield) are edging down a bit even with the slp track not changing that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've been thinking the same thing, lots of virga the first (few?) hours. I wonder if that's why the qpf totals (on the northwest side of the precip. shield) are edging down a bit even with the slp track not changing that much. That's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've been thinking the same thing, lots of virga the first (few?) hours. I wonder if that's why the qpf totals (on the northwest side of the precip. shield) are edging down a bit even with the slp track not changing that much. Interesting discussion took place over in the MA forum about if models forecasted QPF correctly, if it took in account only accumulated snow or if any has been lost due to dry air...Pretty heated discussion where both disagree. Even boundary layers that weren't sampled properly will throw off QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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