yhbrooklyn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Rather than dirty up the model discussion threads... There have been 184 storms of 6" or more since 1870, or 1.27 per year. There have been 37 storms of 12" or more since 1870 or 0.26 per year (1 every 4 years). Let's calm down about what NYC normally sees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 10" snowfalls have been on the rise,,, snowfalls 10" or greater......Year....date....amount"...1872...12/26.......18.0"1875...4/13.........10.0"1876...2/3-4........11.0"1877...1/1-2........13.0"1879...1/15-16....13.0"1888...3/12-14....21.0"1896...3/2...........10.0"1896...3/15-16....12.0"1897...1/27-28....10.0"1898...11/26-27..10.0"1899...2/12-14....16.0"1902...2/17..........10.0"1905...1/24-25.....11.0"1907...2/4-5.........11.0"1908...1/23-24.....10.0"1910...1/14-15.....10.0"1912...12/24........11.4"1914...3/1-2.........14.5"1915...4/3-4.........10.2"1916...12/15........12.7"1920...2/4-7.........17.5"1921...2/20..........12.5"1925...1/2............11.5"1926...2/3-4.........10.4"1926...2/9-10.......12.0"1933...2/11..........10.0"1933...12/26........11.2"1935...1/23-24.....13.0"1941...3/7-8.........18.1"1947...2/20-21.....10.7"1947...12/26-27...26.4"1948...12/19-20...16.0"1956...3/18-19.....11.6"1958...3/19-20.....11.8"1959...12/21-22...13.7"1960...3/3-4.........14.5"1960...12/11-12...15.2"1961...2/3-4.........17.4"1964...1/12-13.....12.5"1967...2/7............12.5"1969...2/9-10.......15.3"1978...1/19-20.....13.6"1978...2/6-7.........17.7"1979...2/19..........12.7"1983...2/11-12.....17.6"1993...3/13-14.....10.6"1994...2/11..........12.8"1995...2/4............10.8"1996...1/7-8.........20.2"1996...2/16-17.....10.7"2000...12/30........12.0"2003...2/16-17.....19.8"2003...12/5-6.......14.0"2004...1/28..........10.4"2005...1/22-23.....13.8"2006...2/11-12.....26.9"2009...12/19-20...10.9"2010...2/9-10.......10.0"2010...2/25-26.....20.9"2010...12/26-27...20.0"2011...1/25-26.....19.0"2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" .................................... 1870's...51880's...11890's...51900's...41910's...51920's...51930's...31940's...41950's...31960's...61970's...31980's...11990's...52000's...72010's...6 since 2000 KNYC got 13 snowstorms 10" or more...Not counting the 9.8" this year and the 9.5"+3.0" event last February...the most by far for that amount of years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 10" snowfalls have been on the rise,,, snowfalls 10" or greater...... Year....date....amount"... 1872...12/26.......18.0" 1875...4/13.........10.0" 1876...2/3-4........11.0" 1877...1/1-2........13.0" 1879...1/15-16....13.0" 1888...3/12-14....21.0" 1896...3/2...........10.0" 1896...3/15-16....12.0" 1897...1/27-28....10.0" 1898...11/26-27..10.0" 1899...2/12-14....16.0" 1902...2/17..........10.0" 1905...1/24-25.....11.0" 1907...2/4-5.........11.0" 1908...1/23-24.....10.0" 1910...1/14-15.....10.0" 1912...12/24........11.4" 1914...3/1-2.........14.5" 1915...4/3-4.........10.2" 1916...12/15........12.7" 1920...2/4-7.........17.5" 1921...2/20..........12.5" 1925...1/2............11.5" 1926...2/3-4.........10.4" 1926...2/9-10.......12.0" 1933...2/11..........10.0" 1933...12/26........11.2" 1935...1/23-24.....13.0" 1941...3/7-8.........18.1" 1947...2/20-21.....10.7" 1947...12/26-27...26.4" 1948...12/19-20...16.0" 1956...3/18-19.....11.6" 1958...3/19-20.....11.8" 1959...12/21-22...13.7" 1960...3/3-4.........14.5" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 1961...2/3-4.........17.4" 1964...1/12-13.....12.5" 1967...2/7............12.5" 1969...2/9-10.......15.3" 1978...1/19-20.....13.6" 1978...2/6-7.........17.7" 1979...2/19..........12.7" 1983...2/11-12.....17.6" 1993...3/13-14.....10.6" 1994...2/11..........12.8" 1995...2/4............10.8" 1996...1/7-8.........20.2" 1996...2/16-17.....10.7" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...2/16-17.....19.8" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2004...1/28..........10.4" 2005...1/22-23.....13.8" 2006...2/11-12.....26.9" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...2/9-10.......10.0" 2010...2/25-26.....20.9" 2010...12/26-27...20.0" 2011...1/25-26.....19.0" 2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" .................................... 1870's...5 1880's...1 1890's...5 1900's...4 1910's...5 1920's...5 1930's...3 1940's...4 1950's...3 1960's...6 1970's...3 1980's...1 1990's...5 2000's...7 2010's...6 since 2000 KNYC got 13 snowstorms 10" or more...Not counting the 9.8" this year and the 9.5"+3.0" event last February...the most by far for that amount of years... I thought that 9.5 + 3.0 was one single event. I didn't realize they didn't count it. I have to change my charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I thought that 9.5 + 3.0 was one single event. I didn't realize they didn't count it. I have to change my charts. This site doesn't even have the 9.5: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Great post.....really makes us realize why we're all pretty spoiled. Last 20 years or so we've had a foot or more about every 2 years, while the average for the past 140 years is once every 4 years.....so pretty much double the number of 12" storms, more 6" storms, and I'm sure more 15"+ and 20"+ storms as well. Obviously many old timers now talk about snow as if they experienced numerous 2 to 3 foot storms with drifts up to the roof, etc etc.....and of course a 6" storm when you're a child seems like much more and 20" means that the world is covered in snow and time has stood still, so it's understandable (plus, as we can see on those charts, clearly some older folks have seen huge storms) .....but, it makes me wonder how we'll speak of the 2000s and 2010s when it comes to snow and how it was for us, considering an average snow year is such a disappointment for many. I think our actual definition of what a "major snowstorm" is, is changing.....more so for us who actually track the storms and always want to be the jackpot. A 12" snowstorm is a big, big deal for many people.....however, for us, as we might get 12" and watch another large area get way over that (24-36"+), it becomes more of a "what could have been", and might be remembered for that. As I've posted a couple days ago, and despite poking fun at our obvious lack of snow compared to Boston, I believe that most of our areas will receive another 15-30" to add on to what we've gotten so far. This will of course put us all above average for the season (though obviously it hasn't happened yet and cannot be proven right or wrong). I wonder then, if we do get all of that additional snow, if everyone will consider this year great, good, or bad. Depends on how you see things and also how you like to accumulate your snow. Personally, though it's been frustrating to this point, pretty persistent cold with several smaller storms wish a very strong finish is a great snow year. Jackpotted with every opportunity? Obviously not. But way above average? Yeah, it would be. Really makes you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Rather than dirty up the model discussion threads... 2015-02-11_17-26-31.jpg 2015-02-11_17-21-10.jpg There have been 184 storms of 6" or more since 1870, or 1.27 per year. There have been 37 storms of 12" or more since 1870 or 0.26 per year (1 every 4 years). Let's calm down about what NYC normally sees. Looks like where are getting back towards normal in the 6+, although more of those have been in the 12+ cat recently. I think what a lot of us are wondering is if this could be some sort of new normal, perhaps related to climate change. That beats when I was wondering if this is the new normal back in the 80s. I am going to have a 20 year average near 40". That was not normal in the previous 40 years of reasonably accurate climo available for LI. Prior to about 65 years ago, there isn't really a good enough set of local records to make any definitive assessments of what average snowfall actually was. Since December of 1995, we've had the following in my corner of the island: 39 snowfalls of 6" or more 21 snowfalls of 10" or more 20 snowfalls of 11" or more 17 snowfalls of 12" or more 7 snowfalls of 15" or more 3 snowfalls of 18" or more 2 snowfalls of 20" or more 1 snowfall of 25" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This site doesn't even have the 9.5: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html they had it as one 12.5" event...I'm counting it as two...Another 6" storm not listed is 6.2" on 12/23-24/1961...2.8" on 12/23 and 3.4" on 12/24...It was mixed with sleet and rain for a time in the middle of the event...I e mailed them but it was never fixed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What's crazy is according to the charts above, 5 years into this decade and NYC has already seen 11 6"+ snowfalls. This give NYC another 5 years to at least be as good as the 60's and possible give the 1890's/1900's a run for it's money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This also gives NYC another 5 years to break the highest 12+ inch snow in a single decade record, which belongs to the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 last year had six snowfalls 4" or more...these are the years with at least four snowfalls 4" or more...so far in 2014-15 KNYC has one storm 4" or more.. season............snowfalls4"+...................................Snowfall...Total 4+1892-93.........4.0, 6.0, 5.0, 9.1, 6.0.............................49.7........5......1893-94.........6.5, 7.0, 4.0, 8.0...................................36.1........4......1895-96.........10.0, 5.0, 12.0, 4.5................................46.3........4......1896-97.........5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 10.0, 8.5............................43.6........5......1898-99.........10.0, 6.0, 4.0, 6.5, 16.0..........................55.9........5......1902-03.........6.3, 6.5, 4.0, 9.5...................................28.7........4......1904-05.........4.0, 6.0, 7.0, 11.0..................................48.1........4......1906-07.........6.0, 5.0, 11.0, 6.0, 4.0, 6.0, 5.0................53.2........7......1915-16.........6.0, 6.0, 5.3, 7.6, 4.0, 5.0.......................50.7........6......1916-17.........12.7, 4.3, 6.7, 6.5.................................50.7........4......1922-23.........4.0, 9.0, 7.8, 6.3, 7.3.............................60.4........5......1933-34.........11.2, 9.8, 7.6, 9.3, 5.6...........................52.0........5......1938-39.........8.8, 4.0, 8.8, 4.5...................................37.3........4......1948-49.........5.3, 16.0, 4.5, 4.6, 9.4............................46.6........5......1957-58.........8.0, 4.5, 4.5, 7.9, 4.1, 11.8......................44.7........6......1963-64.........6.6, 12.5, 6.8, 4.9..................................44.7........4......1977-78.........13.6, 17.7, 4.2, 5.0................................50.7........4......1984-85.........4.8, 4.1, 4.3, 5.7...................................24.1........4.....1993-94.........4.0, 4.5, 9.0, 12.8, 5.0............................53.4........5......1995-96.........7.7, 20.2, 7.5, 10.7, 4.5, 4.5, 4.1...............75.6........7......2002-03.........6.0, 5.0, 5.3, 19.8, 4.0............................49.8........5......2003-04.........14.0, 5.8, 5.7, 10.3.................................42.6........4......2004-05.........13.8, 5.0, 6.0, 7.7..................................41.0........4......2009-10.........10.9, 10.0, 5.0, 20.9...............................51.4........4......2010-11.........20.0, 9.1, 4.2, 19.0.................................60.9........4...... 2013-14.........5.0, 6.4, 11.5, 8.0, 4.0, 9.5.......................57.4........6.........seasons that had four storms of 4+".1890's...51900's...31910's...21920's...11930's...21940's...11950's...11960's...11970's...11980's...11990's...22000's...32010's...3some other years1947-48........26.4, 5.4, 5.7..........................................63.2........3......1960-61........15.2, 9.9, 17.4........................................54.7........3......2008-09..........4.5, 4.4, 8.3..........................................27.6........3......2000-01........12.0, 6.0, 5.7..........................................35.0........3......1990-91..........7.2, 5.7, 8.9..........................................24.9........3......1966-67..........7.1, 12.5, 9.8........................................51.5........3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This also gives NYC another 5 years to break the highest 12+ inch snow in a single decade record, which belongs to the 60's. We have one problem. The zoo keeper.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 What's crazy is according to the charts above, 5 years into this decade and NYC has already seen 11 6"+ snowfalls. This give NYC another 5 years to at least be as good as the 60's and possible give the 1890's/1900's a run for it's money. Yeah, it's great. I hope we shatter it all, but we have to be prepared for a snow drought. they had it as one 12.5" event...I'm counting it as two...Another 6" storm not listed is 6.2" on 12/23-24/1961...2.8" on 12/23 and 3.4" on 12/24...It was mixed with sleet and rain for a time in the middle of the event...I e mailed them but it was never fixed... They don't have it there anymore though. You should email them again, we need to make sure we keep them honest. You've been my most valuable resource in building my spreadsheet. Looks like where are getting back towards normal in the 6+, although more of those have been in the 12+ cat recently. I think what a lot of us are wondering is if this could be some sort of new normal, perhaps related to climate change. That beats when I was wondering if this is the new normal back in the 80s. I am going to have a 20 year average near 40". That was not normal in the previous 40 years of reasonably accurate climo available for LI. Prior to about 65 years ago, there isn't really a good enough set of local records to make any definitive assessments of what average snowfall actually was. Since December of 1995, we've had the following in my corner of the island: 39 snowfalls of 6" or more 21 snowfalls of 10" or more 20 snowfalls of 11" or more 17 snowfalls of 12" or more 7 snowfalls of 15" or more 3 snowfalls of 18" or more 2 snowfalls of 20" or more 1 snowfall of 25" or more It's been a remarkable run. I hope it's the new normal. Great post.....really makes us realize why we're all pretty spoiled. Last 20 years or so we've had a foot or more about every 2 years, while the average for the past 140 years is once every 4 years.....so pretty much double the number of 12" storms, more 6" storms, and I'm sure more 15"+ and 20"+ storms as well. Obviously many old timers now talk about snow as if they experienced numerous 2 to 3 foot storms with drifts up to the roof, etc etc.....and of course a 6" storm when you're a child seems like much more and 20" means that the world is covered in snow and time has stood still, so it's understandable (plus, as we can see on those charts, clearly some older folks have seen huge storms) .....but, it makes me wonder how we'll speak of the 2000s and 2010s when it comes to snow and how it was for us, considering an average snow year is such a disappointment for many. I think our actual definition of what a "major snowstorm" is, is changing.....more so for us who actually track the storms and always want to be the jackpot. A 12" snowstorm is a big, big deal for many people.....however, for us, as we might get 12" and watch another large area get way over that (24-36"+), it becomes more of a "what could have been", and might be remembered for that. As I've posted a couple days ago, and despite poking fun at our obvious lack of snow compared to Boston, I believe that most of our areas will receive another 15-30" to add on to what we've gotten so far. This will of course put us all above average for the season (though obviously it hasn't happened yet and cannot be proven right or wrong). I wonder then, if we do get all of that additional snow, if everyone will consider this year great, good, or bad. Depends on how you see things and also how you like to accumulate your snow. Personally, though it's been frustrating to this point, pretty persistent cold with several smaller storms wish a very strong finish is a great snow year. Jackpotted with every opportunity? Obviously not. But way above average? Yeah, it would be. Really makes you think Great post, man. Really makes you wonder about the "when I was your age" crowd, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We have one problem. The zoo keeper.... Lol. Not sure how long that zoo keeper has been keeping tabs on Central Park. As long as we keep the storms rolling thru over the next 5 years, then I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah, it's great. I hope we shatter it all, but we have to be prepared for a snow drought Yeah I agree. I'm sure tho with the bit of warming of the oceans, that is helping enhance bigger storms on our coastline. Then again, the same could be said for hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Global warming will increase the intensity and snowfall amounts of as we go onto the future. I expect this decade will surpass the 60's and may even break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well then I hope global warming is real Global warming will increase the intensity and snowfall amounts of as we go onto the future. I expect this decade will surpass the 60's and may even break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well then I hope global warming is real http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/science/2015/02/04/global-warming-won-prevent-massive-snowstorms-study-suggests/tJIpBkbD56rb7XjTBkZdrJ/story.html Interesting article and sheds some light on why certain areas could receive more snow due to global warming, while other areas less. It seems that the areas that are cold, but not frigid, and snowy but not usually the snowiest, could definitely get bumped up to the "next level" of snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/science/2015/02/04/global-warming-won-prevent-massive-snowstorms-study-suggests/tJIpBkbD56rb7XjTBkZdrJ/story.html Interesting article and sheds some light on why certain areas could receive more snow due to global warming, while other areas less. It seems that the areas that are cold, but not frigid, and snowy but not usually the snowiest, could definitely get bumped up to the "next level" of snow totals IMO, his point that "heavy precipitation events have been increasing in frequency in the Northeast at an unusually fast rate when compared to other parts of the US" is important. Since the 1970s, for example, NYC has a notable rise in average annual precipitation relative to its prior historic averages. That shorter period has had more years with 50" or more precipitation than the 1869-1969 timeframe. If one looks more closely, the number of precipitation events per year (0.01" or above) is essentially the same as it was for the earlier period. Instead, the frequency of 1", 2", and 3" precipitation events has grown markedly. At this time, it is not really possible to determine how much of that change is due to natural recurring cycles and how much is due to climate change, even as the climate models suggest that the Northeast should grow wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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