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Extreme cold February 2015


Rainman

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I was telling my wife that this morning - likely to go below zero Thursday in RFD and I wager we're done with sub zero for winter 2014/15. Stranger things have happened in the last two years but as we burn another week or two even with the current pattern there's a lot working against it at this point in the year.

That and one more. Do we have another sub z in the bag next week? Wicked pattern indeed.
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Few insane facts about the extreme February cold around here:

 

As of 2/26, this month has the coldest average temperature out of any month ever (since records began in 1937) at YYZ. 

 

This Feb has YYZ's greatest monthly temperature anomaly out of any month ever recorded.

 

This Feb has the greatest Std ever recorded at YYZ, surpassing March 2012, July 1992, Feb 1979 and January 1994 by a wide margin.

 

Month Year Anom Std

Feb 2015 8.0 3.5

March 2012 6.6  3.3

Feb 1979 6.3  2.7

Jan 1994 7.9 2.5

July 1992 3.5 2.3

July 2012 3.2 2.1

Jan 1981 4.7 1.5

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Looks like this is going to come down to the wire for ORD. P&C high is 21˚ for today, which puts them at 14.55˚ for February...rounding up to their nearest tenth makes it 14.6˚ and thus tying 1875 for the coldest February on record. If today's high is lower than 21˚, this month will be the title holder. I think my math is correct anyways. :lol:

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For Detroit, it looks like this February will likely be the 2nd coldest on record, and the coldest in 140 years. 

Detroit broke the record low today with a low of -2F. So 6 record lows for the month (all within the last 16 days), really 5 record lows and 1 record low max.

 

For Detroit, 2nd coldest Feb and 5th coldest all-time month a lock. Records to 1874. How cold was this February? The mean temp was 7 DEGREES COLDER than the 20th coldest February on record!

 

Also, this will be the 18th coldest winter on record (last winter was 8th coldest)....and this naturally INCLUDES the mild December. So this is 2 consecutive winters that made the top 20 coldest all-time list, and despite all the record snow we have had since 2002, until last year no winter had made top 20 COLDEST since 1981-82.

 

Once Feb numbers are official I am going to run xmacis to see where this ranks in coldest November-February periods (and I will eventually do Nov-Mar too) because dont forget how cold Nov was and Mar is looking cold too. Really, December was an abberation of a pattern thats been locked in for 2 years now.

 

Based on what was discussed earlier in this thread..this Feb looks to be...

2nd coldest on record at Detroit/Chicago and coldest at Cleveland....all 3 cities #1 is(was) 1875. So basically the coldest Feb this region has seen in 140 years. WOW.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
832 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 /932 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015/

...MORE RECORD BREAKING COLD IN A REMARKABLY COLD FEBRUARY...

CHICAGO
-------
THE TEMPERATURE BOTTOMED OUT AT -10 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT
OHARE...SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 0 FOR FEBRUARY
28TH...SET IN 1884. THIS IS THE SECOND LATEST TEMPERATURE OF -10
OR COLDER IN CHICAGO. THE LATEST OCCURRED ON MARCH 4TH
1873...WHICH HAD A LOW OF -12 DEGREES.

THIS WAS THE 8TH OCCURRENCE OF SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH...WHICH IS TIED FOR THE 5TH MOST SUBZERO LOWS IN FEBRUARY ON
RECORD WITH 5 OTHER FEBRUARIES.

MOST SUBZERO LOWS IN FEBRUARY IN CHICAGO
----------------------------------------
RANK NUMBER OF SUBZERO DAYS
---- ----------------------
1 12 IN 1875 AND 1936
3 9 IN 1885 AND 1905
5 8 IN 1895...1917...1979...2007 AND 2015

ROCKFORD
--------
THE TEMPERATURE PLUMMETED TO -16 DEGREES AT ROCKFORD THIS
MORNING...WHICH ALSO SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR
FEBRUARY 28TH...SET IN 1962. THE READING THIS MORNING IS THE
LATEST TEMPERATURE THIS COLD ON RECORD IN ROCKFORD.


FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27TH SET 2 RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THE LOW OF
-15 TIED 1994 FOR THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE...PREVIOUSLY THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE THIS LATE IN THE SEASON IN ROCKFORD. IN
ADDITION...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 12 DEGREES SET A NEW RECORD
COLD HIGH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 15 DEGREES WAS SET IN 2014.

THIS WAS THE 10TH OCCURRENCE OF SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH...WHICH IS TIED FOR THE 8TH MOST SUBZERO LOWS IN FEBRUARY ON
RECORD WITH 3 OTHER FEBRUARIES.

MOST SUBZERO LOWS IN FEBRUARY IN ROCKFORD
-----------------------------------------
RANK NUMBER OF SUBZERO DAYS
---- ----------------------
1 18 IN 1936
2 13 IN 2014
3 12 IN 1929
4 11 IN 1958...1963...1978 AND 1979
8 10 IN 1980...2007 AND 2015

$

RC

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Tacked on another sub-zero low at LAF this morning (-1˚).

 

Records don't go back very far for the airport here (1944, though missing data in the 50's and 60's), but this February will rank as the 3rd coldest.

 

1) 16.6˚ in 1979

2) 17.0˚ in 1978

3) 17.4˚ in 2015 projected

4) 18.5˚ in 2007

5) 18.6˚ in 2014 

 

WL COOP has data back to 1901 (again has some missing data through the years), but this Feb will join 2007 and 2014 as the 3rd coldest for that site.

 

1) 12.2˚ in 1978

2) 13.6˚ in 1979

3) 16.8˚ in 2015

3) 16.8˚ in 2014

3) 16.8˚ in 2007

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Looks like this is going to come down to the wire for ORD. P&C high is 21˚ for today, which puts them at 14.55˚ for February...rounding up to their nearest tenth makes it 14.6˚ and thus tying 1875 for the coldest February on record. If today's high is lower than 21˚, this month will be the title holder. I think my math is correct anyways. :lol:

Pretty wild....not that i am loving this cold in the least bit, but if we can break a record then bring it on....need the cloud deck to work in here

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Tacked on another sub-zero low at LAF this morning (-1˚).

 

Records don't go back very far for the airport here (1944, though missing data in the 50's and 60's), but this February will rank as the 3rd coldest.

 

1) 16.6˚ in 1979

2) 17.0˚ in 1978

3) 17.4˚ in 2015 projected

4) 18.5˚ in 2007

5) 18.6˚ in 2014 

 

WL COOP has data back to 1901 (again has some missing data through the years), but this Feb will join 2007 and 2014 as the 3rd coldest for that site.

 

1) 12.2˚ in 1978

2) 13.6˚ in 1979

3) 16.8˚ in 2015

3) 16.8˚ in 2014

3) 16.8˚ in 2007

 

 

The -1 at LAF is the latest that a below zero temp has occurred since it hit -3 on March 9, 1984.

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Looks like this is going to come down to the wire for ORD. P&C high is 21˚ for today, which puts them at 14.55˚ for February...rounding up to their nearest tenth makes it 14.6˚ and thus tying 1875 for the coldest February on record. If today's high is lower than 21˚, this month will be the title holder. I think my math is correct anyways. :lol:

17 at ORD currently....3 or 4 more hours to go to keep it under 21

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I wasn't too impressed with the last several cold surges here, but this one was very impressive.  Ended up at -16 for the low here this morning.  MLI set another record at -18, which destroyed the old record from 1962 of -9.  

 

Have made a very impressive recovery back to 20 above.  The soundings this morning showed the cold was extremely shallow, with much warmer temps in the H9-8 range compared to yesterday.  Easily mixed out that cold surface layer and recovered nicely.  

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LOT with a FB post tracking the afternoon high temp at ORD.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSChicago/posts/875702349153467:0

Also something interesting is that they mention the high temp is calculated off a 5min period of temp OBS, and not just one single OBS. That's something I didn't know, and would better explain what goes on during the warmer summer days with large intra-hour bumps and when other things occur.

Would be interesting to check back on ORD data for 2012 and see what days weren't 90+ or 100+ days because of the 5min data set.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...RECORD COLDEST MONTH AT THE MARQUETTE NWS...

THE MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE AT THE MARQUETTE NWS OFFICE WAS 2.4
DEGREES...OVER 13 DEGREES BELOW THE 15.5 DEGREE MONTHLY NORMAL. THE
FEBRUARY 2015 AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD
LOW FEBRUARY MEAN TEMPERATURE OF 5.6 DEGREES THAT WAS ESTABLISHED
JUST LAST YEAR IN FEBRUARY 2014.

LAST MONTH WAS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD AT THE NWS
OFFICE BUT ALSO THE COLDEST MONTH OVERALL. THE PREVIOUS COLDEST
MONTH AT THIS LOCATION WAS IN JANUARY 1994...WHEN THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 2.8 DEGREES.

WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP DATE BACK TO 1961.

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Records set for most of NYS. I'm ready for spring.

 

#‎February‬ 2015 will go down in the ‪#‎record‬ books as the coldest month in our climate station history! Records for both ‪#‎buffalo‬ and ‪#‎Rochester‬ date back to 1871 and 1950 for ‪#‎Watertown‬. The new monthly average record for Buffalo is 10.9F, Rochester 12.2F and 6.1F for Watertown. In the snowfall department, Buffalo recorded 46.2 inches and Rochester 45.2 inches both impressive snowfall totals for the month.

 

Syracuse, NY actually beat it's coldest month of all time by 3 degrees. Pretty ridiculous stuff.

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