84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I've noticed it struggles with southern stream systems, but it's always done well w/ clippers/NS vorts. Duh, clippers come from its homeland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 he's not marriedLmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro still on board for a gusty inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 .13 per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 06z NAM even stronger w/ the squalls & convective potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is our event. Hold on. Should be fun. I hope we squeeze everything we can out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam pretty impressive for JYO all things considered.... .13 with tssn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam pretty impressive for JYO all things considered.... .13 with tssn http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kjyo.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What are temps looking like for this? I see a high of 40 tomorrow. Hopefully this comes in behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What are temps looking like for this? I see a high of 40 tomorrow. Hopefully this comes in behind the front. It's going to be along the front. We'll start upper 30s to lower 40s probaby, but that heavy-hitting squall should drop us to near/below freezing pretty quick between pulling down the cooler air and the wind shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6Z RGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm almost afraid to hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6Z RGEM total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We'll get thumped out here with a decent snowfall, but the thing that will really make this an interesting event is the wind and temps. Low of -8 degrees with wind gusts up to 41 mph will make it feel like we are on the planet Hoth from the Empire Strikes Back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We'll get thumped out here with a decent snowfall, but the thing that will really make this an interesting event is the wind and temps. Low of -8 degrees with wind gusts up to 41 mph will make it feel like we are on the planet Hoth from the Empire Strikes Back. Yeah Saturday night should be absurd. Just going by the NAM/GFS and how they did with yesterday's upslope they both look a little more bullish for tomorrow, with wider coverage and more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We'll get thumped out here with a decent snowfall, but the thing that will really make this an interesting event is the wind and temps. Low of -8 degrees with wind gusts up to 41 mph will make it feel like we are on the planet Hoth from the Empire Strikes Back. The cold, wind and snow will make it feel to you as though you are serving life on the Klingon-controlled frozen planet Rura Penthe, which had deep snowdrifts and extreme cold. Captain James T. Kirk and Dr. McCoy were imprisoned there after their sentencing for the murder of Klingon Chancellor Gorkon, in the Star Trek movie, Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The squall is going to be fast and hopefully furious. Check out how thin the line is on the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Seems like a lot for something like this. The line would really have to mean business to drop that much over such a large area. Frontal type squall line could easily drop .1-.2. Not evenly distributed though. Pretty intense temp difference along with decent lift and instability considering it's Feb. Surface temps above freezing in advance is a negative but a hard hitting line followed by high winds and temps falling rapidly is going to he fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Frontal type squall line could easily drop .1-.2. Not evenly distributed though. Pretty intense temp difference along with decent lift and instability considering it's Feb. Surface temps above freezing in advance is a negative but a hard hitting line followed by high winds and temps falling rapidly is going to he fun. I haven't been interested or paying attention; what time is the line? If it's daylight, then forget about it; it'll be just like yesterday...snow TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Frontal type squall line could easily drop .1-.2. Not evenly distributed though. Pretty intense temp difference along with decent lift and instability considering it's Feb. Surface temps above freezing in advance is a negative but a hard hitting line followed by high winds and temps falling rapidly is going to he fun. When exactly is it going to cross our region Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I haven't been interested or paying attention; what time is the line? If it's daylight, then forget about it; it'll be just like yesterday...snow TV. When exactly is it going to cross our region Saturday night? This is 7pm Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And precip type should be self-explanatory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks, MN Transplant. I appreciate the Mets on this board regardless of whether I receive snow in my backyard or not. And I appreciate the hobbyists, and folks such as H2O as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is 7pm Saturday rad42.gif Thanks. So it looks like maybe 6 PM out here. Pretty iffy for me to see anything that accumulates then with an afternoon high of 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 325 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>054-505-506- WVZ051>053-131630- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0001.150214T2300Z-150215T1700Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN- MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE... DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY... GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA... ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN 325 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * WINDS...POSSIBLE 60 MPH NORTHWEST GUSTS. * IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES...POWERLINES...AND MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE CONDITIONS IS DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM Radar Reflectivity P-TYPE looks fun around 00z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks. So it looks like maybe 6 PM out here. Pretty iffy for me to see anything that accumulates then with an afternoon high of 40F. I honestly wouldn't be that worried about the temps. Even if it pops to 40, the ground is good and frozen today and we aren't going to spend much time above freezing. This will be practically convective in that it will drag down cold air. The temp drop will be noticeable when it starts snowing. The bigger problem out west might be the downslope, but I'll be honest, I'm not sure how you do climatologically in situations like this. 12z NAM 1 hour snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM drops DCA ~15 degrees from 00z SUN (low 30s) to 03z SUN (mid teens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM drops DCA ~15 degrees from 00z SUN (low 30s) to 03z SUN (mid teens) Might even be more than that. If we aren't going to get a good snowstorm, this is the next best thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I honestly wouldn't be that worried about the temps. Even if it pops to 40, the ground is good and frozen today and we aren't going to spend much time above freezing. This will be practically convective in that it will drag down cold air. The temp drop will be noticeable when it starts snowing. The bigger problem out west might be the downslope, but I'll be honest, I'm not sure how you do climatologically in situations like this. 12z NAM 1 hour snowfall USA_ASNOWI1_sfc_036.gif Poorly. Very poorly. Appreciate your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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