Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes, but what the HiRes NAM shows in this run is pretty spectacular in terms of winter-weather for people leaving their Valentine's dinners.True. I like little events like the NAM is advertising.. Assuming it reaches potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 3:30 40* 6:30 29* 10:30 20* Barely missed mega front qualification of 20 degrees in 6 hours. Saturday will probably make it. Criteria: 20 degrees in 6 hours or 30 degrees in 9 hours or 40 degrees in 12 hours or 50 degrees in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 these events are usually 0.5 - 1.0" for DC...I think the last one we had was February 2012.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think this is appropo for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rgem hour by hour frames look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM at 48 - it'll be a fun event around here. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015021300&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi rez nam sim radar looks like a line squall of tstorms. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow @ the pressure gradient Sunday AM on the GFS..that's Sandy-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just outside, stood face into the wind for 63 seconds and then had to turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM has a few hundred j/kg ahead of that line feature Saturday evening, and the "thunder parameter" which assesses several indicators of the potential for charge separation is a YES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM has a few hundred j/kg ahead of that line feature Saturday evening, and the "thunder parameter" which assesses several indicators of the potential for charge separation is a YES. What does charge separation mean?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Saturday evening looks like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What does charge separation mean?.It mean lightning, which would be stupid awesome. This little event might just be my sweet. I may have a date with a squall line on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It mean lightning, which would be stupid awesome. This little event might just be awesome. I may have a date with a squall line. Thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The memorable ts I have had, 1983 the greatest were imbedded in big snowstorms. 2006 was really good(I think). Had some windy, towering cumulus events that can do 1" in 20-30 minutes but thunder in the front line very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Charge separation means that the positively-charged and negatively-charged particles within the cloud separate - positive move up, and negative move down. The attempt to balance the charge is basically what creates lightning. There are certain environments that favor this process occurring. You can read about the algorithm here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/bright/ltgparam.pdf What does charge separation mean?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Charge separation means that the positively-charged and negatively-charged particles within the cloud separate - positive move up, and negative move down. The attempt to balance the charge is basically what creates lightning. There are certain environments that favor this process occurring. You can read about the algorithm here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/bright/ltgparam.pdf I will read it, thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Charge separation means that the positively-charged and negatively-charged particles within the cloud separate - positive move up, and negative move down. The attempt to balance the charge is basically what creates lightning. There are certain environments that favor this process occurring. You can read about the algorithm here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/bright/ltgparam.pdf This is what makes weather boards great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ggem goes a little hog wild and drops 1-2". I'm looking forward to this event. Nasty front, brief heavy snow, and high winds is recipe for a fun winter weather day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Even without a lot of snow this is a pretty cool looking event. Kinda bummed I'll miss the meat of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My goal is to see hr 45 on the GFS in May or June someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Even without a lot of snow this is a pretty cool looking event. Kinda bummed I'll miss the meat of it.I'm definitely going to chase the best cells/heaviest convective. I hope it comes to me and I don't have to go to it. I would cancel my plans if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 My goal is to see hr 45 on the GFS in May or June someday. In my limited severe knowledge I totally get it. It would be a nasty day of cells moving fast and punishing those in the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Even without a lot of snow this is a pretty cool looking event. Kinda bummed I'll miss the meat of it. Don't forgot your barf bag. Happy travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Don't forgot your barf bag. Happy travels. he's not married Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 In my limited severe knowledge I totally get it. It would be a nasty day of cells moving fast and punishing those in the wayOrientation may not be perfect but that flat speed max rounding the base at peak heating.. Wedgefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This will be a good timed snow as well. 3/4 of the board will be sloshed by 8pm Saturday. Good posts to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So..GGEM with the coup? Hopefully we can hold/improve over the next 24hrs, this time tomorrow we'll have a lock on the evolution of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 So..GGEM with the coup? Considering it had a foot of ice 12 hours earlier I'd say it scored another reason not to look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I've noticed it struggles with southern stream systems, but it's always done well w/ clippers/NS vorts. My analysis might be off, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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