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Feb 14-15 Flizzard and Wind Event


Bob Chill

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To be fair, it hasn't budged for three runs now w/ the frontogenic forcing. Hopefully it verifies, but I'm still somewhat skeptical.

These events are simpler than they seem probably. There's a pretty solid ceiling.. But this is a very anomalous vort/cold coupling to it's going to want to try to max out perhaps.
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Lol, thanks.

It might be useful. I'm not bashing it. I just don't understand it.

I like the new gfs quite a bit. Over time we'll all probably agree that it's pretty good inside of d5. Better than the old one for sure in my eyes. It also seems to have a knack for d8-10 stuff but the jury will be out on that for quite a while.

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These events are simpler than they seem probably. There's a pretty solid ceiling.. But this is a very anomalous vort/cold coupling to it's going to want to try to max out perhaps.

Yeah, I think 1" is the best we can do given the speed of the front..that might still be pushing it? Euro is like 0.09" QPF @ DCA so they're not too far apart..

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Boston isn't worth the trouble....there's no place to put it any more.

My friend from 2nd grade lives near Weatherfella and he stopped texting me last week there's so much of it. It really is a mess/hassle to get around.

I wonder if they still want more lol - Whether or not they want it, they are going to get it

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It might be useful. I'm not bashing it. I just don't understand it.

I like the new gfs quite a bit. Over time we'll all probably agree that it's pretty good inside of d5. Better than the old one for sure in my eyes. It also seems to have a knack for d8-10 stuff but the jury will be out on that for quite a while.

If it can rival the Euro, it would be a huge improvement in the models if we can have two top notch globals.

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Hoping for a coating but I am convinced I'll see a few clouds and a ton of wind and I will freeze. It'll be cold for a few days. Return flow will develop, then I'll enjoy another proper soaking.

 

And so on. Which is why I punted the hell out of this winter. I kicked that football so damned hard that it went into the stands and demolished a block of spectator seating. Good thing no one was there, I'd be facing a ton of lawsuits and sitting in jail.

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We'll be there too (the whole family), along with about half the population of the DC metro area.  Presidents Day is the busiest weekend of the entire ski season.  About the only saving grace will be the absurdly cold temperatures - wind chills -20 should help keep at least the kids at bay on the lifts, but I would still expect hour plus delays at the downhill areas to buy lift tickets and maybe 30-40 minute lift lines, based on past experiences.  Your best bet would be White Grass or the trails in the park.

Oh absolutely.  I don't downhill at all anyway, I just XC ski and snowshoe.  Even Whitegrass is crazy on Presidents day weekend, but with 50 km of trail there is plenty of room for everyone to spread out.

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Did you check radar and the observations thread? It's already snowed a bit in most of the area, and the dusting zone is in Northern MD so far. 

No I didnt actually. Thought the flizzard potential was for later this afternoon/eve. But I just did just look and there certainly is some action there.

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Isn't this for Saturday night and Sunday? I am confused because it seems some people are talking about today but it's the 12th, not the 14th and 15th.

I thought it was for both clippers. But at this point its mostly for the weekend one I guess. 12z NAM looks kinda decent for Sat...maybe an inch or 2.

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