StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 To be fair, it hasn't budged for three runs now w/ the frontogenic forcing. Hopefully it verifies, but I'm still somewhat skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Am i crazy or was it not much better last winter?. Whenever is disagrees with the euro/gfs/ukie it's always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It seems hung up on giving us more than we should get. My least favorite global.It's been crap this winter. I usually only look at it when bored or when it's mentioned here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 To be fair, it hasn't budged for three runs now w/ the frontogenic forcing. Hopefully it verifies, but I'm still somewhat skeptical.These events are simpler than they seem probably. There's a pretty solid ceiling.. But this is a very anomalous vort/cold coupling to it's going to want to try to max out perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Whenever is disagrees with the euro/gfs/ukie it's always wrong. So basically it is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wisp will be great. Temps barely above zero and crazy blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 So basically it is useless. I give it zero weight when the other globals think otherwise. I give it featherweight when it looks like everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I give it zero weight when the other globals think otherwise. I give it featherweight when it looks like everything else. Lol, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol, thanks. It might be useful. I'm not bashing it. I just don't understand it. I like the new gfs quite a bit. Over time we'll all probably agree that it's pretty good inside of d5. Better than the old one for sure in my eyes. It also seems to have a knack for d8-10 stuff but the jury will be out on that for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 These events are simpler than they seem probably. There's a pretty solid ceiling.. But this is a very anomalous vort/cold coupling to it's going to want to try to max out perhaps. Yeah, I think 1" is the best we can do given the speed of the front..that might still be pushing it? Euro is like 0.09" QPF @ DCA so they're not too far apart.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boston isn't worth the trouble....there's no place to put it any more. My friend from 2nd grade lives near Weatherfella and he stopped texting me last week there's so much of it. It really is a mess/hassle to get around. I wonder if they still want more lol - Whether or not they want it, they are going to get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It might be useful. I'm not bashing it. I just don't understand it. I like the new gfs quite a bit. Over time we'll all probably agree that it's pretty good inside of d5. Better than the old one for sure in my eyes. It also seems to have a knack for d8-10 stuff but the jury will be out on that for quite a while. If it can rival the Euro, it would be a huge improvement in the models if we can have two top notch globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I wonder if they still want more lol - Whether or not they want it, they are going to get it I have been in their thread and asked them if they want more and most have said Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have been in their thread and asked them if they want more and most have said Yes. Talk about terminal heroin addicts. They dont got nowhere to put that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z EURO has DCA at -15c 850s Saturday night at 8pm and -22c 850s for Sunday night at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not impressive with the flizzard. Half inch it is. Chasing up north requires a drive to Maine now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Impressive w/ the pressure gradient though..gonna be some cold wind chills Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro says zwyts stay here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro says zwyts stay here I'm not going to Portland....I'll be going to Tucker/Garrett on Saturday...afternoon looks fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hoping for a coating but I am convinced I'll see a few clouds and a ton of wind and I will freeze. It'll be cold for a few days. Return flow will develop, then I'll enjoy another proper soaking. And so on. Which is why I punted the hell out of this winter. I kicked that football so damned hard that it went into the stands and demolished a block of spectator seating. Good thing no one was there, I'd be facing a ton of lawsuits and sitting in jail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We'll be there too (the whole family), along with about half the population of the DC metro area. Presidents Day is the busiest weekend of the entire ski season. About the only saving grace will be the absurdly cold temperatures - wind chills -20 should help keep at least the kids at bay on the lifts, but I would still expect hour plus delays at the downhill areas to buy lift tickets and maybe 30-40 minute lift lines, based on past experiences. Your best bet would be White Grass or the trails in the park. Oh absolutely. I don't downhill at all anyway, I just XC ski and snowshoe. Even Whitegrass is crazy on Presidents day weekend, but with 50 km of trail there is plenty of room for everyone to spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Today's flizzard has fizzled. Both NAM and RAP not impressive unless you live down in Tidewater VA, but there its probably mostly rain or a mix ending as a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not bad. On the order of 20 degrees in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Today's flizzard has fizzled. Both NAM and RAP not impressive unless you live down in Tidewater VA, but there its probably mostly rain or a mix ending as a flurry. Did you check radar and the observations thread? It's already snowed a bit in most of the area, and the dusting zone is in Northern MD so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Did you check radar and the observations thread? It's already snowed a bit in most of the area, and the dusting zone is in Northern MD so far. No I didnt actually. Thought the flizzard potential was for later this afternoon/eve. But I just did just look and there certainly is some action there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This for Saturday night and Sunday? I am confused because it seems some people are talking about today but it's the 12th, not the 14th and 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No I didnt actually. Thought the flizzard potential was for later this afternoon/eve. But I just did just look and there certainly is some action there. ....Which shows how bad the RAP and NAM can be at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Isn't this for Saturday night and Sunday? I am confused because it seems some people are talking about today but it's the 12th, not the 14th and 15th. I thought it was for both clippers. But at this point its mostly for the weekend one I guess. 12z NAM looks kinda decent for Sat...maybe an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ....Which shows how bad the RAP and NAM can be at times. Yup. And my local forecast, which has been updated to reflect the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like 1" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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