WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thanks man...If I go I will have a 4wd.....Saturday is looking good. SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF SHARPLY INTO THE -10 TO -15C RANGE. GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE REALIZED IN SNOW SQUALLS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM WFO BURLINGTON RUN OFF OF THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH PUT A BULLSEYE OF VALUES GREATER THAN 5...WITH ANYTHING OVER 1 CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT. A front wheel drive is enough in my experience. They keep those roads pretty clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Fortunately, it's just a short stretch of road between davis and the down slope and big drop off in snow. They usually do a decent job keeping things open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM has the vort swinging out a bit west of where it had it on the 18Z run so maybe it might come in a little better this run....baby steps (maybe?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 radar sim looks better this run too vs. 18z, though it is west of the mts. so one must be cautious until it looks better east of them 18Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_066_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 0Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've never seen it that crowded in Canaan Valley, if that's what you're talking about. You haven't been there the last three weeks then But this is OT so .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM is a crush job for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM is a crush job for the ski areas. my wife and I finally have a free weekend w/no plans I'm thinking a quick shot to Garrett Co. might be in order it only takes 2hr. to get to the eastern boarder when traffic is clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 impressive squall line again on the NAM, probably better than 18z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model actually, some qpf falls between 66 and 72 hrs (the map above) too based on this 66 hrs. sim/rad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NCEP site sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 officially, NAM drops .11" at IAD, .10" at BWI and .09" at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You haven't been there the last three weeks then But this is OT so .... Yes I have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NCEP site sucks here's Winchester http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kokv.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ~1" is prob top end from weekend event. Always looked like that really. We don't get that many windex events but basically what it is. There was a good one right after I moved here maybe 2007. ~30 minutes of blinding snow. Uber vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nam drops .12 at jyo and is below zero at hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 here's Winchester http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kokv.txt Thanks Mitch, but I had already seen my 0.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 officially, NAM drops .11" at IAD, .10" at BWI and .09" at DCA BWI total is .11" the 6 hour increments were .03 + .07, but apparently they don't show anything after 2 decimal points on the 6 hr. totals but include the extra on the totals for the run http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ~1" is prob top end from weekend event. Always looked like that really. We don't get that many windex events but basically what it is. There was a good one right after I moved here maybe 2007. ~30 minutes of blinding snow. Uber vort. I remember that one, February 2007 after the V-day sleetstorm. Lasted like 15min but to this day I think that's the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 No matter what, I'm measuring on the lee side of the house after the winds start howling. Could be the biggest event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I remember that one, February 2007 after the V-day sleetstorm. To this day that's the heaviest snow I've ever seen.Yeah sounds about right couldn't remeber the exact date but thought it was feb. It was pretty awesome when it came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah sounds about right couldn't remeber the exact date but thought it was feb. It was pretty awesome when it came through. there was a pretty good one that came through late FEB or early MAR, 2014 up this way snowed real hard for 20 minutes and then was gone leaving >1/2", but I assume the results weren't the same down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No matter what, I'm measuring on the lee side of the house after the winds start howling. Could be the biggest event of the year.1-1.5" with 40 mph winds is as good as a 5" with no wind imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Maybe the front will stall for an hour, right over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12Z Sunday off NAM DCA: -.7F IAD: -2.4F BWI: -1.7F OKV: -6.2F <--------and we have a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 1-1.5" with 40 mph winds is as good as a 5" with no wind imo.Crazy talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I remember that one, February 2007 after the V-day sleetstorm. Lasted like 15min but to this day I think that's the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Yeah sounds about right couldn't remeber the exact date but thought it was feb. It was pretty awesome when it came through. It was 2/18/07. Dropped a quick 0.75" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Crazy talk loledlol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 my wife and I finally have a free weekend w/no plans I'm thinking a quick shot to Garrett Co. might be in order it only takes 2hr. to get to the eastern boarder when traffic is clear guidance is looking better and better....I'm definitely going if I don't go to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I68 is going to have whiteout conditions from keysers on west. Traffic cams should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Crazy talk Yeah, I don't see 1.5" no matter how hard I try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 guidance is looking better and better....I'm definitely going if I don't go to Boston. Boston isn't worth the trouble....there's no place to put it any more. My friend from 2nd grade lives near Weatherfella and he stopped texting me last week there's so much of it. It really is a mess/hassle to get around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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