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Feb 14-15 Flizzard and Wind Event


Bob Chill

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Good luck down there everyone.  I hope I at least come back to some snow on the ground.  Glad I traveled.  Should be a fun afternoon/evening

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS

* HAZARD TYPES...STRONG WIND GUSTS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND BLOWING
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

* WINDS...GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.


* WIND CHILL READINGS...MINUS 20 TO MINUS 30...BUT AS LOW AS
MINUS 45 ON THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS...GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET.

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE ZERO TO MINUS 15 DEGREE RANGE
BY SUNDAY MORNING.


* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE WIND...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THE LOW WIND CHILLS.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD CAUSE DOWNED LIMBS...POWER
OUTAGES...AND DEBRIS ON ROADS. MOTORISTS MAY ENCOUNTER STRONG
CROSS WINDS. SNOW SQUALLS COULD PRODUCE NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES..
.MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING
CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE. THIS COULD CAUSE FROST BITE
AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. PETS THAT LIVE
OUTSIDE SHOULD ALSO BE PROVIDED SHELTER FROM THE WIND AND COLD.

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I think the models that Did Not have DC area getting into the mid 40's today might be the ones to lean on. Some cannot get the next 5 minutes right anymore.

 

This.  The 16z HRRR has at at 46 degrees at 5pm in DC.  It's 32 now per Weatherbug.  Not sure we're even going to break the 40's unless magic happens.

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This.  The 16z HRRR has at at 46 degrees at 5pm in DC.  It's 32 now per Weatherbug.  Not sure we're even going to break the 40's unless magic happens.

Sometimes temps can spike close to 10 degrees just before the front arrives. Don't know if that will be the case today. I would bet against that kind of spike today but who knows. This is not your typical front.

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I think the models that Did Not have DC area getting into the mid 40's today might be the ones to lean on. Some cannot get the next 5 minutes right anymore.

Don't look just to the southwest. Short term were prob a little bullish but it's going to warm more ahead of the front.
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post-397-0-52605700-1423939484_thumb.gif

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1233 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015   AREAS AFFECTED...OH/WV TO WEST/CENTRAL PA   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 141833Z - 142230Z   SUMMARY...AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS   THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SNOW SQUALLS WITH RELATIVELY   SHORT-DURATION BOUTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION   WITH INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED   VISIBILITIES.   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FAST-SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD   FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR WESTERN NY/FAR WESTERN PA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO   SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KY...WITH A RELATED PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET   OF 4 MB/2-HR CHANGES NOTED PRECEDING/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS   FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADILY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET   STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH VERY STRONG   CYCLONIC/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS OVERSPREADING THE OH   VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA AT MIDDAY HAS   SAMPLED AS MUCH AS 75-90 KT W/NW WINDS AROUND 3 KM AGL ACROSS   INDIANA/OH.   AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD...CONSIDERABLE   FORCING FOR ASCENT/SUFFICIENT STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A   STRENGTHENING FIELD WIND WILL YIELD CONVECTIVELY RELATED SNOW   SQUALLS WITH RELATIVELY SHORT-DURATION BOUTS /UP TO AN HOUR OR TWO/   OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW /1+ IN PER HR RATES/ AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED   VISIBILITIES. THE COLD FRONT AND RELATED SNOW SQUALLS SHOULD REACH   PARTS OF CENTRAL PA AND THE WV MOUNTAINS BY AROUND THE 21Z   TIME-FRAME /4 PM LOCAL/.   ..GUYER.. 02/14/2015   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0064.html

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
140 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ027>031-038>040-
050>057-501-502-505>507-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-150100-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-
EASTERN LOUDOUN-NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...
DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...
CUMBERLAND...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...
COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...
FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...
WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...BIG MEADOWS...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY
140 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

...HAZARDOUS WINTER CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.

BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW MAY PROMOTE A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND SLICK. IN ADDITION...WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL BECOME STRONG...GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. THESE LOW VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP
SUDDENLY.

TRAVELERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ADVISED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW
WITH SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATE THIS EVENING...VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE VERY COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW OR
SLUSH ON AREA ROADS TO FREEZE...RESULTING IN ICY CONDITIONS.

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