snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm thinking the prime location for the squall will be the Bay Bridge around 6-7pm. Should be a bit nuts for a brief period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good call Ian. Waa side of a very strong vort passing north is not a cold pattern. Dca pushing 40 seems almost likely GFS MOS is 46 for DCA tomorrow. I may actually be a little low though I did go with 35-42 to be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You get used to being wrong the more you forecast. I'm also very good (self back pat) within 24-48 hours so I rarely bust there and people are more forgiving with bad thoughts outside that window. You totally just jinxed yourself for tomorrow's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You totally just jinxed yourself for tomorrow's forecast. lol, probably. RAP has temps in the upper 40s around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 VAZ053-140900-FAIRFAX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFAX1230 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAYMORNING....OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. SOUTH WINDSAROUND 5 MPH..SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THEAFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 40.SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THEEVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WINDY AND COLDWITH LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO45 MPH...INCREASING TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 13 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY...SUNNY AND VERY WINDY. COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 18.NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...DECREASING TO50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 17 BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not sure how likely 60mph wind gusts will be. Maybe out over open water or in the higher terrain, but not around 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not sure how likely 60mph wind gusts will be. Maybe out over open water or in the higher terrain, but not around 95. Why not? It happened back in March 2014, under a weaker gradient/CAA regimen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've lost power sooooo many times over the past 7 years or so....I hate wind and the thought of losing power at 0 is not a good one I lost power for 1.5 days the day after the 2/07 ice storm when it stayed around 20 all day; talk about misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro goes from 30 to 12 at DCA 0Z and 6Z Sunday with .8" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro goes from 30 to 12 at DCA 0Z and 6Z Sunday with .8" snow. how does BWI look snow-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 .6" Euro has been on the lighter side with this wrt snow or so it seems. That said, I'm not really expecting anything more than a quick ground covering that gets blown around. I'm sure someone might see an inch. how does BWI look snow-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 .6" Euro has been on the lighter side with this wrt snow or so it seems. That said, I'm not really expecting anything more than a quick ground covering that gets blown around. I'm sure someone might see an inch. thx....for nuffin'!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 VAZ053-140900- FAIRFAX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFAX 1230 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... .OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 14. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WINDY AND COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...INCREASING TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 13 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY...SUNNY AND VERY WINDY. COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...DECREASING TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 17 BELOW. With all that wind for so long, trees are gonna get blown down. I have been trying for so long, with a lot of patience and understanding, to try and persuade my neighbor in back to please get that 60 foot behemoth of a tree trimmed down some. It will probably come down - right on top of my porch roof, with resultant structural damage to my kitchen and rec room. I wonder what the chance are of us getting a High wind warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 06z NAM has 2mT around 0 tonight for BWI/IAD... 5ish at DCA (rough estimate for DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 HWW hoisted High Wind WarningURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC317 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506-WVZ051>053-141630-/O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0001.150214T2300Z-150215T1700Z//O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.150214T2300Z-150215T1900Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN317 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THISEVENING TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 06z RGEM has ~5mm (0.2") of QPF for tonight http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=06&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 344 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 MDZ501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-141645- /O.UPG.KLWX.WC.A.0001.150215T0500Z-150215T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WC.W.0001.150215T0000Z-150215T2300Z/ /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.150214T1500Z-150215T0500Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...BAYARD... MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE 344 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 8 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. * WIND CHILL...25 TO 30 BELOW. * TEMPERATURES...TEENS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO. * WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. BLOWING SNOW WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THAT COULD QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 344 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 MDZ006-507-141645- /O.UPG.KLWX.WC.A.0001.150215T0500Z-150215T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WC.W.0001.150215T0500Z-150215T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.150214T1500Z-150215T0500Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... JARRETTSVILLE 344 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. * WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW. * TEMPERATURES...LOW 30S DROPPING TO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 344 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 MDZ011-014-506-508-141645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WC.Y.0007.150215T0500Z-150215T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.150214T1500Z-150215T0500Z/ SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE... ANNAPOLIS...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...ABERDEEN 344 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. * TIMING...A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. * WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW. * TEMPERATURES...TEENS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. * WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wonder where the squall is on the HRRR. It drops us from 50 at 5pm to upper 20s (and falling) by 8 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's hard to believe we're going to torch to 50 today with all these clouds and snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's hard to believe we're going to torch to 50 today with all these clouds and snow showers. Yea I think it's overdone on temps but I'll probably get to the low to mid 40s if I had to guess. It's going to be fun later for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wonder where the squall is on the HRRR. It drops us from 50 at 5pm to upper 20s (and falling) by 8 pm. Those are going to be some of the mildest snow showers I have ever experienced at 50 degrees, before the temp falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yea I think it's overdone on temps but I'll probably get to the low to mid 40s if I had to guess. It's going to be fun later for sure.I'm definitely pumped for this one. Just wish it wasn't going to get so warm today. I don't want to waste a flake later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Those WINDS are gonna be a literal BLAST. Man 60 mph gusts are a fresh gale, or something like that on the Beaufort Scale. Trees are gonna be falling all over the place, especially the older ones - this might NOT be the best time for a jebwalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm definitely pumped for this one. Just wish it wasn't going to get so warm today. I don't want to waste a flake later. I really wouldn't worry too much about that. The band will quickly pull the cold air down and temps will fall quickly. I'm not looking at this from an accumulation standpoint but rather a cool line of heavy snow that will get whipped around by the gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can't wait to see the posts when this starts as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It may start as some light rain but those temps will CRASH - this is the MOTHER of northern stream systems I never expected much in the way of accums with this, i expect a light dusting at most, I'm pumped for some good wind gusts keepin' me up all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow has commenced in Jon Jon, Zwyts, and Tracker land. Hopefully they post pics and videos later with the frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is way more interesting than Tuesday. I think we all may have power out if those winds come through as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yea, the radar looks pretty nice out west. It will definitely be fun watching unfold, at least its something different for a change other then 33 and rain. Sucks it wont be plowable but may need to plow downed trees instead lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 1-2" WWA seems aggressive, but bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.