Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hires nam has the se corner of dc in the .2 contour. Further east looks pretty good. Line grows and intensifies as it moves east of 95. Tomorrow afternoon is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heh, hires jackpots Wes with 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heh, hires jackpots Wes with 2" I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z RGEM has very tiny jackpot over DCA once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LWX upped the sustained winds in the watch: ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE CONDITIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 30-40 seems about right. 40 may be tough sustained in the low lands. 60 for gusts will be tough too probably.. but gotta have a little pad just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still kind of freaking out about flying back but at least the main DCA runway points NW I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z RGEM has very tiny jackpot over DCA once again Which will move to northern Frederick co tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM has the front running precip like the NAM now except it looks like Bob is under the hole....sorry Bob, thanks for playin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'd stop looking at models for qpf details. It's gonna haul and likely be a thin band. Fairly straight forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wind and super cold is a sure thing Saturday night. High confidence there. As for snow, well, I am a bit south of the forcing, so my expectations are for a few flurries, SnowTV on up to perhaps a 30 percent chance of a very light dusting. Strong winds will destroy any ratios. For me the "squall" will be super quick. This winter, northern stream events have focused the forcing closer to DC and Maryland, and I am going with persistence. Then back to super cold and very very windy, I have already secured all my lawn furniture. Some of those gusts may be close to 60 mph tomorrow night, fairly good windex event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'd stop looking at models for qpf details. It's gonna haul and likely be a thin band. Fairly straight forward. You're new here, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM total snowfall consistent with everything else at 1"-2" max in very few spots, if you could even measure it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You're new here, right? Lol true. I'm more interested in timing since I'm finishing up the forecast. Plus I'm in FL so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 that blob of extra qpf over DCA shows up on this qpf total map too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol true. I'm more interested in timing since I'm finishing up the forecast. Plus I'm in FL so whatever. When I'm in Florida, writing pieces becomes tougher, my attention span shortens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When I'm in Florida, writing pieces becomes tougher, my attention span shortens. I managed to not even take out my laptop till this afternoon. Jason asked if I'd be interested in writing about Boston for tomorrow which I'd usually do if I was home but I have not been paying enough attention to details so I passed. Not to mention I guess I should hang out with my dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm still kind of freaking out about flying back but at least the main DCA runway points NW I guess. descent will be bump. Areas of mod to severe turbulence forecast over the apps and smokies late tomorrow. Good thing you're coming in Sunday and not from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 that blob of extra qpf over DCA shows up on this qpf total map too I'm taking my Arlington jackpot and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 descent will be bump. Areas of mod to severe turbulence forecast over the apps and smokies late tomorrow. Good thing you're coming in Sunday and not from the west. I'm sure it will be fine.. I am not the hugest fan of flying to begin with so any additional bump is bad bump. If it's bad enough they will delay or divert anyway. Land at 11, so winds are probably starting to wane a bit by then anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm the same way, Ian. Hope it's not that bad. I play a mind game where I force all thoughts of the impending flight out of my head until I'm actually sitting on the plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0Z GFS: BWI-.11" DCA-.08" IAD-.05" oh yeah, and it gets windy and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 MOS is actually kinda mild tomorrow.. 40+ most spots. A little cooler up near BWI on GFS. Probably a bit high and with clouds maybe not a factor anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 MOS is actually kinda mild tomorrow.. 40+ most spots. A little cooler up near BWI on GFS. Probably a bit high and with clouds maybe not a factor anyway. yeah, 18Z had it going up to 40 at BWI at 4PM but 31/32 at 7PM, so that probably makes sense NAM, on the other hand, gets BWI only to 32 at 4pm as a max http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA NAM is 37 at 4PM http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yeah, 18Z had it going up to 40 at BWI at 4PM but 31/32 at 7PM, so that probably makes sense NAM, on the other hand, gets BWI only to 32 at 4pm as a max http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA NAM is 37 at 4PM http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt I went mid-30s to near 40. Could be a bit of a spike ahead of the front but also could stay cool if we do see that midday precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I went mid-30s to near 40. Could be a bit of a spike ahead of the front but also could stay cool if we do see that midday precip. Sounds reasonable. I like that you own your forecasts in the end, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sounds reasonable. I like that you own your forecasts in the end, good or bad. You get used to being wrong the more you forecast. I'm also very good (self back pat) within 24-48 hours so I rarely bust there and people are more forgiving with bad thoughts outside that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good call Ian. Waa side of a very strong vort passing north is not a cold pattern. Dca pushing 40 seems almost likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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