MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 that's the max potential map he linked, not their forecast I know, I was referring to the morning RGEM and a generous viewing of the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have a hard time believing that we are going to see a consistent 1-2" swath of snow. I'm thinking most will be <1" with spotty locations doing better. LOL...me too. I also have a hard time believing there will be no measurable precip here tomorrow. Wait....I can believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know, I was referring to the morning RGEM and a generous viewing of the 18z NAM. I think a dusting to an inch but still think driving could be bad as the temps crash and the snow us going to fall heavily for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have a hard time believing that we are going to see a consistent 1-2" swath of snow. I'm thinking most will be <1" with spotty locations doing better. And even then, who will be able to measure accurately with all the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi res nam has 2 bands. One between 11am-1pm that drops a .5 - .75" of snow through the cities and close burbs and then a nasty line rolls through between 4-7pm. Temps go above freezing after the first line so anything that falls won't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have a hard time believing that we are going to see a consistent 1-2" swath of snow. I'm thinking most will be <1" with spotty locations doing better.Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi res nam has 2 bands. One between 11am-1pm that drops a .5 - .75" of snow through the cities and close burbs and then a nasty line rolls through between 4-7pm. Temps go above freezing after the first line so anything that falls won't last long. That is the one I am watching for... anything before then is just SnowTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 14 degree drop in an hour near DCA from 7 to 8pm on the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For a time, the SNSQ parameter looks decent around here tomorrow between 4-7pm. Values approaching 4 in localized spots. Mountains are absolutely demolished with a very large area with values of 5. Would expect blizzard conditions in the higher terrain of Garrett, western allegheny, tucker, Preston and western pendelton county. 4pm: 7pm: And the 4pm composite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For a time, the SNSQ parameter looks decent around here tomorrow between 4-7pm. Values approaching 4 in localized spots. Mountains are absolutely demolished with a very large area with values of 5. Would expect blizzard conditions in the higher terrain of Garrett, western allegheny, tucker, Preston and western pendelton county. Never heard of that before... do you have a link to it? ETA: Never mind, saw your edit above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DC jackpot on 18z RGEM Looks like 5mm again exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DC jackpot on 18z RGEM Looks like 5mm again exactly NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 1.33 km NAM fire wx nest will be placed over DC Metro for the 18z and 00z cycles today for a nice view of this event. The output will be available at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NYC? ~8mm, so about .3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CMC-RDPS (RGEM?) has intense snow rate of 3mm/hour which is equivalent to just over an inch per hour rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS finally bumped BWI qpf above .10 to .11" DCA is .08" and IAD & JYO .06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow, GFS is bullish on the winds/mixing potential early Sunday AM. Would easily reach HWW criteria.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Fire wx nest has the metro areas within the .10 range and holds the idea of the squall moving through and at an intense rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow, GFS is bullish on the winds/mixing potential early Sunday AM. Would easily reach HWW criteria.. What do said winds look like? On phone and can't look at BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What do said winds look like? On phone and can't look at BUFKIT If I'm reading it right, looks like at least 50-55kts reaching the surface..so, roughly 58-64mph. I've noticed that models can sometimes underestimate mixing in situations involving compressional heating/downsloping, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If I'm reading it right, looks like at least 50-55kts reaching the surface..so, roughly 58-64mph. I've noticed that models can sometimes underestimate mixing in situations involving compressional heating/downsloping, as well. Very rare numbers for around here though. I bet we max in the mid 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Very rare numbers for around here though. I bet we max in the mid 50s Yeah, climo would argue that. As depicted it looks dynamically similar to the event we had last March. I think IAD hit 61mph in that one, so it wouldn't surprise me if we met HWW criteria in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 What do said winds look like? On phone and can't look at BUFKIT Bad boating weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bad boating weather gfswind.JPG lol I'm working on a new trot line for the summer. I'll test it early Sunday in Crab Alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 headed to Davis soon with Randy...will post some pics..hopefully the event does well here...They're under an advisory for 3-5" tomorrow, but I think where we will be will do high end of that range or even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 lol I'm working on a new trot line for the summer. I'll test it early Sunday in Crab Alley. That's my spot. I got my 1200' and 30 traps ready to roll lol. Spring mumbos soon! I have a 27 foot Grady White if you want to hop on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 headed to Davis soon with Randy...will post some pics..hopefully the event does well here...They're under an advisory for 3-5" tomorrow, but I think where we will be will do high end of that range or even more. double that in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's my spot. I got my 1200' and 30 traps ready to roll lol. Spring mumbos soon! I have a 27 foot Grady White if you want to hop on. Hey, I'd love to! I've got a 14 ft flat bottom skiff that I built from 1/8" plywood. It's a little rough around the edges but has a 15hp Yamaha and runs like a mosquito. On topic, I'm thinking tomorrow afternoon is shat-show on the roads when the squall line goes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 headed to Davis soon with Randy...will post some pics..hopefully the event does well here...They're under an advisory for 3-5" tomorrow, but I think where we will be will do high end of that range or even more. Be there tomorrow. Going skiing at Canaan. Tan Dodge...lol....might see you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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