CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM looks a bit wetter. Almost NAMed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z HI-RES NAM P-TYPE Radar looks a lil like a bow echo coming through at hr 35 Hrs 35-37 will be nice and fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 QPF is 0.10-0.15 for DCA it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z HI-RES NAM P-TYPE Radar looks a lil like a bow echo coming through at hr 35 Hrs 35-37 will be nice and fun Many of us are going to be able to forget about this crap winter for like 15 minutes on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Poorly. Very poorly. Appreciate your thoughts. Everybody always wants to say how well we do out here, but the fact is we only do well out here in two situations. 1) Marginal temps which is almost totally elevation driven 2) wet systems that are west of us sending in large amounts of precip over cold surface air. The rest of the time.......not so much. Anything from the NW is a risk of a total screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 QPF is 0.10-0.15 for DCA it would appear Nobody cares about DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z 4km NAM says everyone west of the BR goes below zero Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Everybody always wants to say how well we do out here, but the fact is we only do well out here in two situations. 1) Marginal temps which is almost totally elevation driven 2) wet systems that are west of us sending in large amounts of precip over cold surface air. The rest of the time.......not so much. Anything from the NW is a risk of a total screw job. Very true. As you always say, precip is the biggest issue for us. Seems like we are always on the edge out here unless it is one of those western track storms. Saturday looks exactly like the summer scenario cold front where convection dies coming over the mountains and refires at the BR and east. I'm in even a worse spot as for some reason any convection usually dries up just south of Winchester to about Middletown. Yesterday I left Middletown with whitened ground and wet roads and by the time i got to the Drive-in Theatre in Stephens City the ground was completely dry. Appeared as though almost nothing fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Out here these systems normally suck wind. Oh, yeah, guess we'll score the wind. Precip wise I don't expect anything to overperform. Half inch and we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 :shiver: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC954 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015MDZ003>005-VAZ025>031-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-132300-/O.CAN.KLWX.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150213T1500Z//O.CON.KLWX.WC.A.0001.150215T0500Z-150215T1700Z/WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...BIG MEADOWS...WINTERGREEN...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD954 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY MORNING......WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASCANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY.* WIND CHILL...WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH AND POSSIBLE GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 954 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 MDZ006-503-505-507-VAZ505-132300- /O.CAN.KLWX.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150213T1500Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WC.A.0001.150215T0500Z-150215T1700Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD- NORTHWEST HARFORD-WESTERN LOUDOUN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...LISBON...JARRETTSVILLE...PURCELLVILLE 954 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. * WIND CHILL...WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. * WINDS... NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z RGEM meteogram for DCA suggests ~5mm of snow... or 0.2 QPF approx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z RGEM meteogram for DCA suggests ~5mm of snow... or 0.2 QPF approx 2" would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have a hard time seeing more than inch outside of the far northern burbs. This thing will race through and be fairly thin. Actually wish it weren't coming in close to dark. A timelapse of the passage would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 IAD is going to smash some of their record temps (low Sunday, high Sunday, low Monday). BWI has at least a chance at those three records also. DCA's best chance is Sunday's high (18). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Those going to the hills saturdsy better get out early or have a place to stay. Almost assured of having whiteout conditions at this point and for a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z RGEM meteogram for DCA suggests ~5mm of snow... or 0.2 QPF approx RGEM has backside enhancement from a 994 low at the mouth of Delaware Bay. Euro showed something like this some days ago. Not sure I buy it but would add to the fun if it goes down like that. Snow would be falling after temps are dropping like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes please rgem.JPG wouldn't dat be sumpin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes please rgem.JPG That's got to be one of the driest 994 mb lows I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has the squall line too look at the 700mb RH map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_036_700_rh_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes please rgem.JPG gfs says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 These small events get hyperanalyzed too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 These small events get hyperanalyzed too much. Dude, this is a huge event. Like top 3 of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to focus on this since our next week threat is on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's got to be one of the driest 994 mb lows I've ever seen. 3hr precip panel. Still dry but not like a 6hr panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM likes 36 and 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z hires NAM BUFKIT has 66 knot winds at around 4kft around 7am Sunday morning. That's darn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to focus on this since our next week threat is on life support.The Dr is here with the paddles after the Gfs and Dr yes is about to shock us back to life in 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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