buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see that Ryan pinned this thread, the one that some were calling to be locked the other day. Either he is doing it for the benefit of our southern posters or he is thinking a more northward shift is in store. lol Early in the thread I mentioned that my gut was saying an I 70 special and I am not changing my mind. However, dry air is going to cause a very sharp cutoff of precip, which means that it may be another near miss for MBY. That's okay, it's been fun watching this play out. I think he's just being a nice, charitable guy. But I love your gut call. Any meteorology behind it or more of a gas bubble situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The least amount of snow a model is showing for Louisville is 8-10 inches. A lot are showing around a foot or more. It's like a dream. Tomorrow should be a fun day for me. Hope you folks up north can cash in a little bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LMK doing a conference call right now and is saying that this is going to the biggest snowstorm in over 10 years for all of Kentucky. Going 10-15 inches for the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkway down south to the Cumberland Parkway and 8 to 12 inches for KY parkways northward to river including Louisville. Now, they're saying we could drop down to inbetween -10 and -15 Thursday morning. All time February record low is -19, doubt we get that low. Thursday morning's record low is 0, looks like we will hit that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The least amount of snow a model is showing for Louisville is 8-10 inches. A lot are showing around a foot or more. It's like a dream. Tomorrow should be a fun day for me. Hope you folks up north can cash in a little bit too. glad to see our most southern subforum member with a legit reason for posting in the storm thread. Refreshing change from all these annoying Chicago and Detroit posters that always hog up all the oxygen around here, (not to mention the snow). kidding aside, you're in the golden zone for this one uk! Per usual if us CMH'ers aren't beating back a warm tongue, we're playing tug of war with a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LMK doing a conference call right now and is saying that this is going to the biggest snowstorm in over 10 years for all of Kentucky. Going 10-15 inches for the Bluegrass/Western Kentucky Parkway down south to the Cumberland Parkway and 8 to 12 inches for KY parkways northward to river including Louisville. Now, they're saying we could drop down to inbetween -10 and -15 Thursday morning. All time February record low is -19, doubt we get that low. Thursday morning's record low is 0, looks like we will hit that for sure. Enjoy the storm! This has to be a big deal down there. I bet the excitement is everywhere. That's the best part for me. reports and pics please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think he's just being a nice, charitable guy. But I love your gut call. Any meteorology behind it or more of a gas bubble situation? Definitely gastrointestinal. I couldn't forecast my way out of a paper bag. I made the call the other day when several runs (especially the Crazy Uncle) was showing a nice OV hit. I was thinking that a little northward shift would take place which would result in the snow-starved I 70 area inching (pun intended) closer to climo. Then the models all became snowbirds for a few runs but have come back home to roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Latest from WPC: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD142 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~POWERFUL UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DEPARTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMESTHROUGH EARLY MON MORNING~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE MODELS NOW SHOW SIMILARLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY/MONBAJA ENERGY SHEARING OUT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TUE A.M.SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONSURFACE LOW TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGEAFTER SEVERAL ENSEMBLE CYCLES OF A WEAKENING TREND TOWARD THEFLATTER ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...A MARKED SHIFT IN THE 00Z/15 ENSEMBLEPACKAGE HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLESPREAD REGARDING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THECURRENT ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW SIMILAR SPREAD TOYESTERDAY...BUT THEY ARE JUST DISPLACED TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIEDSIDE OF THE CURRENT MODEL SPREAD.LOOKING AT THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE TRACK FROM THE FOURCORNERS TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE ABIT FLATTER THAN EVEN SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 12ZNMM/ARW...15Z HRRR...15Z RAP. HOWEVER...THESE SHORT TERM MODELSSUPPORT A 12Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1PERIOD. **ALL** OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SHARPERWITH THIS FEATURE SINCE YESTERDAY...AND MAY STILL BE TRYING TOCATCH UP TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.DUE TO THE CHANGES SEEN AND TRENDS...WE WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THEMORE AMPLIFIED CAMP...BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 12ZECMWF/UKMET...WHICH ONLY MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES FROM THEIR 00ZRUNS...AND AGREE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWGIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS AND SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUNCHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 glad to see our most southern subforum member with a legit reason for posting in the storm thread. Refreshing change from all these annoying Chicago and Detroit posters that always hog up all the oxygen around here, (not to mention the snow). kidding aside, you're in the golden zone for this one uk! Per usual if us CMH'ers aren't beating back a warm tongue, we're playing tug of war with a low. Haha, for once the north trend worked in my favor. Usually always goes against me. I was quite depressed a few days ago when i was reading the Southeastern and Tennessee Valley subforums. Enjoy the storm! This has to be a big deal down there. I bet the excitement is everywhere. That's the best part for me. reports and pics please! It's a huge deal. LMK has recommended every school system to go ahead and cancel school for tomorrow. They're 75 percent confident we're going to get slammed. The Grocery Stores are a zoo I'm sure. Louisville will be back in business Wednesday or Thursday although school may be canceled due to the brutal cold. The rural areas won't get back to normal until next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 glad to see our most southern subforum member with a legit reason for posting in the storm thread. Refreshing change from all these annoying Chicago and Detroit posters that always hog up all the oxygen around here, (not to mention the snow). kidding aside, you're in the golden zone for this one uk! Per usual if us CMH'ers aren't beating back a warm tongue, we're playing tug of war with a low. As one of those people I actually agree, glad to see these guys getting some excitement. Now for the hard part, the storm actually happening and just who gets the big amounts. Fun times as always... Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WEll first off, I'm going to toot my own horn for not giving up on this storm and thinking it would be a non-event for our subforum. Second, the deeper the snowpack to the south we can build, the better if we ever do get a cutter storm (to help dam some of the low-level cold air). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Quote from Mike Ryan at IND on Chat: All...we've updated our weather story and added a video talking about our forecast decisions with our headlines today. Going the conservative route as there is some concern how well some of the model data is capturing the drier air to our north. Several models (NAM/RAP/HRRR) all not handling current dewpoints well at all. Transition point from <1" to 3-4" only about 20-30 miles, likely near/just south of I-70. Tricky forecast on the northern fringe. In nowcast mode...be interesting to see 00Z guidance this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even though IND continues to forecast an inch for Indy proper, the 15z SREF Jacques mean is 3.5" with an lol run of 11". Even taking that out, it is spitting out over 3". When you're sitting at 8.9" for the season and 6.2" since Dec. 1, every inch counts. Tough forecast for them with a quick cutoff near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 National Weather Service goin 8-12 inches of snow for Northern Louisville with 10-15 inches for the southern part of town. I live about seven miles north of the 10-15 inch line. It's going to be hard to sleep tonight, can't wait for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 National Weather Service goin 8-12 inches of snow for Northern Louisville with 10-15 inches for the southern part of town. I live about seven miles north of the 10-15 inch line. It's going to be hard to sleep tonight, can't wait for tomorrow. Good luck and take pics. I've got friends in Corydon, I'll have to give them a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Enjoy the storm Kentucky folks! That sucker is juiced up. Gotta friend that lives off Bardstown Rd in Louisville, said 8-12" is like 4' for there lol. Hoping next winter treats us a little better! Nothing like wave after wave of arctic air with snow on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Good luck and take pics. I've got friends in Corydon, I'll have to give them a call. Trust me, I'll be taking pictures. Work has already told me to work from home. Enjoy the storm Kentucky folks! That sucker is juiced up. Gotta friend that lives off Bardstown Rd in Louisville, said 8-12" is like 4' for there lol. Hoping next winter treats us a little better! Nothing like wave after wave of arctic air with snow on the ground! Chamba, I live off Bardstown Road as well. If we get 10 inches, we'll be in top-10 storm category. I'll post the graphic later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gonna be a very close cut off line here just ne of Indpls to be sure if NWS forecast verifies. I do hope for some northward progression however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We need 10 inches of snow to make this a top-10 snowstorm. We haven't had a 10+ inch storm since March of 2008. I was a freshman at Murray State and only received five inches of snow from that storm in Murray. I, personally, haven't seen 10+ inches in one storm since Feburary of 1998 which was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A bit south of our region but Memphis and a good chunk of TN expecting one half to three quarters inch of ice. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WWA extended slightly further northward by ILX to include SPI: Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL1000 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015ILZ049>051-161000-/O.EXA.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD1000 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CSTMONDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON MONDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A WINCHESTER TO JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD LINE...AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE SOUTH.* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We need 10 inches of snow to make this a top-10 snowstorm. We haven't had a 10+ inch storm since March of 2008. I was a freshman at Murray State and only received five inches of snow from that storm in Murray. I, personally, haven't seen 10+ inches in one storm since Feburary of 1998 which was amazing. I remember that '98 storm well even though it didn't affect me. We were leaving for a family trip to Disney World. I was sitting on the runway at port Columbus, looking out the window and it was just starting to snow. I remember thinking I was going to miss the only winter storm that whole season. It was that infamous super el nino year. That night I'm eating dinner at a restaurant in Orlando and I over heard people talking at another table saying Cincy was having a huge snowstorm. What a crazy storm. It was a cut off low so places to the north got rain or ice, while places like cincy and Louisville got tons of snow. I think Columbus had mostly ice from what I was told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow is already starting to fall. My car is covered. This is just the onset. There's a lull coming before the good stuff arrives after daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I remember that '98 storm well even though it didn't affect me. We were leaving for a family trip to Disney World. I was sitting on the runway at port Columbus, looking out the window and it was just starting to snow. I remember thinking I was going to miss the only winter storm that whole season. It was that infamous super el nino year. That night I'm eating dinner at a restaurant in Orlando and I over heard people talking at another table saying Cincy was having a huge snowstorm. What a crazy storm. It was a cut off low so places to the north got rain or ice, while places like cincy and Louisville got tons of snow. I think Columbus had mostly ice from what I was told. That was probably a once in 100 year storm. Our moisture came from the Atlantic and temperatures were right around freezing for the three day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Mention of 20:1 ratios in some areas. Could be interesting to see what this does to final totals ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A decent light snow has already started to fall. This is bonus snow as the main show doesn't begin till after daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A decent light snow has already started to fall. This is bonus snow as the main show doesn't begin till after daybreak. Nice. Good to see you southern peeps getting in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 TUL reporting +TSPL. Slightly jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice. Good to see you southern peeps getting in on the action. Ditto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Contrats our friends in the south part of this forum ... :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 short range models, RAP and HRRR are showing more of a turn northeast with the track later on. Would favor places east and along I-71. This would be good news for Dilly if that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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