Powerball Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 you make me laugh. . Yesterday. .. everyone north of southern Tenn. Was done! ! He makes everyone laugh. But to be fair, he has plenty of company on this forum who shared his previous thoughts and now share his current thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My favorite 24hr backup RUC is north of the GFS/NAM lol It gets precip up to the IA/MO/IL border by 2z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My favorite 24hr backup RUC is north of the GFS/NAM lol It gets precip up to the IA/MO/IL border by 2z tomorrow night I-80 corridor reeling this one in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Now it maybe the RAP and it's usual stronger and north bias....but it was the first to really show it with the blizzard two weeks ago latching onto the further north sfc low track.. So here is the 3z RAP and 0z NAM/GFS valid 21z tomorrow. It's digging the wave a good deal further SW and is stronger/north with the sfc low across northern NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z UKie is north. Pretty close to trying to pull this one off for Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z Ukie total QPF. Keep inching north, pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So Uncle Ukie is north of the NAM/GFS but south of the RAP earlier on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If this one doesn't end up being suppressed as many thought it would, it will just be more proof of how god awful these models are. I think the UKMET is about the only one that hasn't had any upgrades lately, which may explain why it's been running laps around the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Pulling for the I-70 crowd...hope it keeps trending north...although my gut feeling is this is where the noticeable north trend stops with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Seems like we've seen this sort of theme several times this winter. A storm is modeled a certain way for a day or two, and then gets trended in another direction for a day or two only to revert back to a similar solution previously shown several days before. It's like there's a blind spot in the modeling, probably based on a series of data holes I'm guessing. Like Baro used to say, garbage in garbage out. Some bad data is getting input into these models in the 60-90hr range apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Have to also give the EURO credit for this one as it called the northern trend with the UKIE last night. I had very little hope before tonight, now I'm very optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z Euro is north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Oh my, the EURO brings close to an inch of precipation to Louisville, and it's all snow. This has the potential to be the biggest snow that I have seen in over 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Seems like we've seen this sort of theme several times this winter. A storm is modeled a certain way for a day or two, and then gets trended in another direction for a day or two only to revert back to a similar solution previously shown several days before. It's like there's a blind spot in the modeling, probably based on a series of data holes I'm guessing. Like Baro used to say, garbage in garbage out. Some bad data is getting input into these models in the 60-90hr range apparently. My guess is the data void is with the energy being out over the ocean plus vort pieces coming from near the Arctic Circle where there are very few RAOB sites. One would have to imagine investing more money into more RAOB sites would be a net plus but we know how that discussion goes unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 06Z NAM slams a lot of Kentucky with over a foot of snow. The SREF members are averaging 14 inches of for both Lexington and Louisville. Hoping the 06Z GFS keeps the trend going. It has been a long time since the entire state of Kentucky got hit by a big snow all at once. Usually somebody gets screwed. Grocery stores here are going to be crazy tomorrow considering most forecasters were predicting light accumulations earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6z NAM a tick north of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The NAM is showing unreal snowfall totals for all of Kentucky. Looks like Indianapolis and Columbus could get in on the fun too. Only concern would be dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 AFD snips: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY337 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2015.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...Issued at 322 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2015...Significant Winter Storm to Impact the Region Tonight intoMonday...Model Preferences and Trends============================The dprog/dt of every available model is quite impressive, showing amarked shift in this system to the north over just a period of 24hours. Therefore, confidence is high that a substantial winterstorm will affect Kentucky and southern Indiana. The only realchallenge is pinning down exact amounts and predicting if thisnorthward trend will continue, which may place far southern KY in ahigher chance for a wintry mix.For this forecast, have leaned largely on the NAM/GFS/GFS Ensemblemean for QPF. .Given the cold, arctic airmass in place, snow ratios for this eventwill be quite high, especially across the north. Generally wentwith a 15/16:1 ratio over northern KY and southern IN, tapering to a10/11:1 ratio across southern KY, where the warm nose will likelycut into the better ratios.Sensible Weather and Impacts============================Needless to say, amounts were adjusted quite a bit upwards with thisforecast. Given the QPF and snow ratio forecasts, came up with8-12+ inches of snow south of the Parkways over central KY. 6-10+inches will be possible near and along the I-64 corridor, with 4-7inches across southern Indiana. Obviously these amounts will causesubstantial impacts to the region, so begin preparations ASAP. Willbe upgrading the entire region to a Winter Storm Warning with thispackage.A Few Final Thoughts====================The trend with this system cannot be ignored. It has rapidlytrended stronger and further north. Have gone toward the moreconservative solutions for QPF and resultant snow amounts, but theseamounts may not be high enough given trends (see 06Z NAM) and thepotential for banding with this system. If it does continue totrend stronger, then southern KY will likely see reduced amounts dueto the potential for more of a wintry mix, with the northern CWAlikely needing much higher amounts. The forecast will be fine-tunedtoday, but either way, a significant and highly impactful stormlooks likely for the entire region so begin preparations now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The NAM is showing unreal snowfall totals for all of Kentucky. Looks like Indianapolis and Columbus could get in on the fun too. Only concern would be dry air. Good luck man. I'm shocked at the move north. Wonder if that trend ended at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Tick north on the 12z 4km NAM. Better run (versus 0z) for parts of southern IL, southern IN, and southern OH. And of course Kentucky, which looks to be the bullseye for this one. Impressive looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z RGEM coming in a bit south of its 0z run. Any more "big" north moves are probably done. Looks like a pretty good SGF-STL-EVV-PAH-SDF storm. Good luck to you all down there...hope it rips snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z RGEM coming in a bit south of its 0z run. Any more "big" north moves are probably done. Looks like a pretty good SGF-STL-EVV-PAH-SDF storm. Good luck to you all down there...hope it rips snow. I remember the RGEM was our last hope down here in CMH for the superbowl storm as it was the farthest south and made a south jump the day before. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM old school Kuchera clown map. Some 12" amounts into parts of far southern Indiana. Eastern half of KY clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A little ex post facto, but here was the 0z Euro snowfall map (10:1 ratios). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like a good 6-10" hit for the southern crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Ukie moved a bit south and east from its 0z run. Noise level changes now. This one looks pretty locked and loaded. Good luck to all involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I should be in for a couple of inches... I'm hoping for more of a nudge north so I can get in on some of the bigger totals but obviously the >6" stuff is out of reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Ukie moved a bit south and east from its 0z run. Noise level changes now. This one looks pretty locked and loaded. Good luck to all involved. you mean like the SB storm was locked and loaded for you guys 30 hours out? Actually no matter what happens.....congrats KY is inevitable...I'm just doing my best to pull this damn thing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 you mean like the SB storm was locked and loaded for you guys 30 hours out? Actually no matter what happens.....congrats KY is inevitable...I'm just doing my best to pull this damn thing north. lol, red flags were a wavin' 48 hours out for LAF with that one. Remember Hoosier bailed north around that time. Remarkable we salvaged almost 5" in that disaster. But point taken. Though I'm not sure this will make any more "bigger" jumps north, but even a smaller move may help some of you guys. Hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I see that Ryan pinned this thread, the one that some were calling to be locked the other day. Either he is doing it for the benefit of our southern posters or he is thinking a more northward shift is in store. lol Early in the thread I mentioned that my gut was saying an I 70 special and I am not changing my mind. However, dry air is going to cause a very sharp cutoff of precip, which means that it may be another near miss for MBY. That's okay, it's been fun watching this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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