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Feb 15-16th Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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Now it maybe the RAP and it's usual stronger and north bias....but it was the first to really show it with the blizzard two weeks ago latching onto the further north sfc low track..

 

So here is the 3z RAP and 0z NAM/GFS valid 21z tomorrow. It's digging the wave a good deal further SW and is stronger/north with the sfc low across northern NM

 

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If this one doesn't end up being suppressed as many thought it would, it will just be more proof of how god awful these models are.

 

I think the UKMET is about the only one that hasn't had any upgrades lately, which may explain why it's been running laps around the other guidance.

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Seems like we've seen this sort of theme several times this winter.  A storm is modeled a certain way for a day or two, and then gets trended in another direction for a day or two only to revert back to a similar solution previously shown several days before.  It's like there's a blind spot in the modeling, probably based on a series of data holes I'm guessing.

 

Like Baro used to say, garbage in garbage out.  Some bad data is getting input into these models in the 60-90hr range apparently.

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Seems like we've seen this sort of theme several times this winter.  A storm is modeled a certain way for a day or two, and then gets trended in another direction for a day or two only to revert back to a similar solution previously shown several days before.  It's like there's a blind spot in the modeling, probably based on a series of data holes I'm guessing.

 

Like Baro used to say, garbage in garbage out.  Some bad data is getting input into these models in the 60-90hr range apparently.

 

My guess is the data void is with the energy being out over the ocean plus vort pieces coming from near the Arctic Circle where there are very few RAOB sites. One would have to imagine investing more money into more RAOB sites would be a net plus but we know how that discussion goes unfortunately.

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The 06Z NAM slams a lot of Kentucky with over a foot of snow. The SREF members are averaging 14 inches of for both Lexington and Louisville. Hoping the 06Z GFS keeps the trend going.

 

It has been a long time since the entire state of Kentucky got hit by a big snow all at once. Usually somebody gets screwed. Grocery stores here are going to be crazy tomorrow considering most forecasters were predicting light accumulations earlier today.

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AFD snips:
 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
337 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 322 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2015

...Significant Winter Storm to Impact the Region Tonight into
Monday...

Model Preferences and Trends
============================
The dprog/dt of every available model is quite impressive, showing a
marked shift in this system to the north over just a period of 24
hours.  Therefore, confidence is high that a substantial winter
storm will affect Kentucky and southern Indiana.  The only real
challenge is pinning down exact amounts and predicting if this
northward trend will continue, which may place far southern KY in a
higher chance for a wintry mix.

For this forecast, have leaned largely on the NAM/GFS/GFS Ensemble
mean for QPF. .

Given the cold, arctic airmass in place, snow ratios for this event
will be quite high, especially across the north.  Generally went
with a 15/16:1 ratio over northern KY and southern IN, tapering to a
10/11:1 ratio across southern KY, where the warm nose will likely
cut into the better ratios.

Sensible Weather and Impacts
============================

Needless to say, amounts were adjusted quite a bit upwards with this
forecast.  Given the QPF and snow ratio forecasts, came up with
8-12+ inches of snow south of the Parkways over central KY.  6-10+
inches will be possible near and along the I-64 corridor, with 4-7
inches across southern Indiana.  Obviously these amounts will cause
substantial impacts to the region, so begin preparations ASAP.  Will
be upgrading the entire region to a Winter Storm Warning with this
package.

A Few Final Thoughts
====================
The trend with this system cannot be ignored.  It has rapidly
trended stronger and further north.  Have gone toward the more
conservative solutions for QPF and resultant snow amounts, but these
amounts may not be high enough given trends (see 06Z NAM) and the
potential for banding with this system.  If it does continue to
trend stronger, then southern KY will likely see reduced amounts due
to the potential for more of a wintry mix, with the northern CWA
likely needing much higher amounts.  The forecast will be fine-tuned
today, but either way, a significant and highly impactful storm
looks likely for the entire region so begin preparations now!


 

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12z RGEM coming in a bit south of its 0z run. Any more "big" north moves are probably done. Looks like a pretty good SGF-STL-EVV-PAH-SDF storm. Good luck to you all down there...hope it rips snow.  :snowing:

I remember the RGEM was our last hope down here in CMH for the superbowl storm as it was the farthest south and made a south jump the day before. Interesting...

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12z Ukie moved a bit south and east from its 0z run. Noise level changes now. This one looks pretty locked and loaded. Good luck to all involved. :)

 

you mean like the SB storm was locked and loaded for you guys 30 hours out? 

 

:P

Actually no matter what happens.....congrats KY is inevitable...I'm just doing my best to pull this damn thing north.

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you mean like the SB storm was locked and loaded for you guys 30 hours out?

:P

Actually no matter what happens.....congrats KY is inevitable...I'm just doing my best to pull this damn thing north.

lol, red flags were a wavin' 48 hours out for LAF with that one. Remember Hoosier bailed north around that time. Remarkable we salvaged almost 5" in that disaster.

But point taken. Though I'm not sure this will make any more "bigger" jumps north, but even a smaller move may help some of you guys. Hope it happens. :)

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I see that Ryan pinned this thread, the one that some were calling to be locked the other day.  Either he is doing it for the benefit of our southern posters or he is thinking a more northward shift is in store. lol

 

Early in the thread I mentioned that my gut was saying an I 70 special and I am not changing my mind. However, dry air is going to cause a very sharp cutoff of precip, which means that it may be another near miss for MBY. That's okay, it's been fun watching this play out.

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