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Feb 15-16th Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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Yea no doubt.. Any further south it will be in the gulf lol.

 I know set ups are not the same, by any means, but I did want to offer this:  The GHD storm, at about 5 days out looked like it was going to go through LA, MS, AL, and then out to sea, and IIRC, it was supposed to go up the coast, and nail New England.   So, let the models flip flop and stumble around, for now, I think things will settle on a somewhat firmer solution in the next 48 hours or so.... But, then, this is me talking, so take it for what it's worth.

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KIND Thurs. afternoon discussion going with recent southern trends of the storm on the current modeling and lowering precip amounts. 

 

it cracks me up.  ILN the same.  Yesterday at this time we were looking at a potential snowstorm for the area, then there's a sudden south shift in less than 12 hours of model runs and suddenly the models are correct.   No discussion as to whether it could come north or even why it's plausible to not come north.   That's fine I guess, except these are the same offices that had temper tantrums over how bad the models did with the last storm in the short range.   Now apparently a sudden shift at 120 hours out is gospel? :rolleyes:

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Starting to question this storm now. The Nor'Easter later this week could have implications on this storm unless it moves out fast.  The initial energy in the S/W is injecting out to early and this may not allow the final energy to move further north to allow for any phasing. The ridge out West is in an ideal position, but if the S/W kicks out to early, no ridging out ahead and no phasing. The positive WB NAO and slightly negative EB NAO could help us out if we can slow down the southern streamer. 

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Starting to question this storm now. The Nor'Easter later this week could have implications on this storm unless it moves out fast. The initial energy in the S/W is injecting out to early and this may not allow the final energy to move further north to allow for any phasing. The ridge out West is in an ideal position, but if the S/W kicks out to early, no ridging out ahead and no phasing. The positive WB NAO and slightly negative EB NAO could help us out if we can slow down the southern streamer.

Can people stop mentioning the east coast storm screwing this storm up. That's isn't the case. As Stebo mentioned the northern stream is what's going to not make this storm form most likely not happening.
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Doesn't matter in this case, the northern stream is screwing it up.

 

and the northern stream is probably the most likely aspect of this to be mishandled by the models.   The other thing is the confluence.  Models are sniffing strong confluence and that's also one of the reasons this has been trending south.   But confluence is almost always overdone at this range.   That's what was originally saving my butt from rain with the early Feb storm.  Once the models figured the confluence wasn't all that....there was nothing to keep it from moving north.  

 

throw in a positive nao, and a positive ao, and no blocking, and it's easy to see a legit argument for a north track.   Throw in a little phasing and then you have an 'oh ****' north track :lol:

 

OTOH, if that PV keeps coming south and the confluence does build, (which even though there is no blocking, could be aided by the blown up clipper low)....game over except for the fish. :deadhorse:

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Can people stop mentioning the east coast storm screwing this storm up. That's isn't the case. As Stebo mentioned the northern stream is what's going to not make this storm form most likely not happening.

 

 All the pieces are there for a potential snowstorm for somebody but the question is all about timing. The EC storm has some effect to some degree, but your right, its not the determining factor. The Jet Streak is impressive with this system. With the amount of moisture available, this has the potential of being a "Big dog" if the puzzle fits together at the right time. 

 

Models have been atrocious this season, so I'm not caught up in any solution yet especially for a storm 100 hours out. 

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I don't agree with the idea that the preceding east coast storm is influencing this in any big way.  If the east coast low were to drastically slow down or pull some other kind of trick, then different story perhaps.  The bigger problem is the phasing issue, and theoretically, I believe it would be possible to get a nice storm with the east coast low in this position... IF we can get a better/quicker phase with our northern and southern stream waves.

 

 

post-14-0-12779200-1423798583_thumb.png

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The energy coming in is being sampled weaker. Even before the Maine killer blew up on the models like it has now, none of them were blowing up impressive systems 500mb wise despite having a stronger vort. It may be the energy is to weak to igntiate a good cyclone. Not many gulf lows this season.

 

Good point. We haven't seen a true Gulf Low this Winter and a true Apps runner since March 08. Models IMO are mishandling the northern and southern energies, but I can only say so much. Alot of STJ influence with this system. If we can get the perfect timing and phasing, this could be sig worthy. Even during the GHD blizzard in 2011, which bares a bit of resemblance with this system, had looked like a dud 100-120 hours out. 

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Fish food on the GFS. What's next? Looks like a clipper coming down the pike thereafter.  :lol:  :arrowhead:

 

The sad part is that clippers for the most part this Winter have been duds too. Nothing to marvel over. What a waste of potential. 

 

Edit: The GFS takes a clipper south of STL through the SE states later next week.  :axe:

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Phasing is screwed up but there was a decided westward shift with the northern stream wave(s) on the 00z GFS.  Grasping, admittedly, but that leaves the door cracked open for a more favorable outcome if it holds/continues. 

 

Good catch. I noticed it shoved the -10˚ and -20˚C 850 lines farther west on this run. Still a crusher obviously, but a different evolution. Maybe we can go full circle and have this become northern stream dominant and salvage something. ;)

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Tell you what, the UKMET has been all-star lately. It was pretty good at sniffing out the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm evolution. And was never interested in doing much for any of us with this system. Though I guess it's still too early to declare its victory...  

 

 

 

The 00z run tries to do something by the looks of it

 

 

post-14-0-64987400-1423802719_thumb.png

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The 00z run tries to do something by the looks of it

 

lol, of course it does after I gave it some accolades. You see how this works now? :lol:

 

FWIW, the 12z run was down in the southeast 1/4 of AL at 108 hours. WxBell has the Ukie in 6 hour increments through 144 hours, which is nice.

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