Whitelakeroy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Didn't the models have the December 23, 2004 storm as an east coast storm not even 48 hours before they shifted towards a favorable solution? It dug way down into the gulf before sharply cutting NNE... Careful as all the models have been upgraded a couple times since 2004 so that is kind of apple/oranges comparison. Now with that said the Feb 1-2 storm had a couple GFS and EURO runs south and basically OTS on the EC. Even some ensembles that said 'what storm'. The models are struggling with the current pattern we are in so I would not be surprised by any solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z UK remains south/non-event for the sub-forum. 12z GGEM through 120 hours, also south. Punt, pass, or kick? I'd call the ggem more east then south. Brings a strong low up the eastern side of the apps. Looks like verbatim all the big cities go to heavy rain with a good thump for the apps and just to their western slopes. So what are the chances that the trough models deeper and the slp stronger and further west in the next few days? Since we are still 5 days out, I'd put those chances greater than 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm watching with one eye open and have determined its all just moderate probability mapping until the upper atmosphere get some sampling. It is fun to watch the IMBY crashes and joyeux snows as the system approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Careful as all the models have been upgraded a couple times since 2004 so that is kind of apple/oranges comparison. Now if we want to use that card, I can give more recent examples... December 9th, 2010 (when models suddenly developed a 988mb over lake erie with 12hrs of the system's onset and we picked up a surprise 4-8" of snow after expecting a miss to the NW). *February 5th, 2011 (when a lot of us saw, as michsnowfreak would say, 4-6" of partly sunny) *January 5th, 2014 (when the models completely lost the storm and had merely a weak/suppressed OTS wave, before suddenly returning to the big snow solution once within 60hrs). In any event, my point (with that example) was I wouldn't get too caught up in the recent model runs. The overall pattern actually favors a significant storm impacting our subforum versus the suppressed crap being shown. The bouncing around shouldn't be of any surprise given their especially awful performance lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd call the ggem more east then south. Brings a strong low up the eastern side of the apps. Looks like verbatim all the big cities go to heavy rain with a good thump for the apps and just to their western slopes. So what are the chances that the trough models deeper and the slp stronger and further west in the next few days? Since we are still 5 days out, I'd put those chances greater than 50%. Canadian looks like a cluster****. But, I suppose too early to completely give up. Well, for here it's on life support...but you guys in OH still very much in the game. Hopefully there are some positive trends in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that's what I get for looking at those crappy black and white maps. Actually the ggem does have the heaviest stripe well to our south and then hits the I-95ers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Canadian looks like a cluster****. cmc_pr6_slp_t850_east_24.png But, I suppose too early to completely give up. Well, for here it's on life support...but you guys in OH still very much in the game. Hopefully there are some positive trends in the next couple of days. it kind of pops a low north of the original low? Must have been afraid it was going to rain on boston if it kept that southern low as a primary needless to say, we have a long way to go on settling this one. I still say sunday 00z will be the first glimpse of the actual solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that's what I get for looking at those crappy black and white maps. Actually the ggem does have the heaviest stripe well to our south and then hits the I-95ers Most models hinting on the trough sharpening rapidly as it moves east. That gives the storm that strong meridional pull at the end. Don't need too much of a wward adjustment to get us into the game. 6 days to pull out an Apps runner. Doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it kind of pops a low north of the original low? Must have been afraid it was going to rain on boston if it kept that southern low as a primary Too many chiefs on the GGEM. But yes, the Boston magnet is unbelievable. Never seen anything like it. Amazing...and almost getting to nauseating levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd call the ggem more east then south. Brings a strong low up the eastern side of the apps. Looks like verbatim all the big cities go to heavy rain with a good thump for the apps and just to their western slopes. So what are the chances that the trough models deeper and the slp stronger and further west in the next few days? Since we are still 5 days out, I'd put those chances greater than 50%. To me, it's going to be hard to get a Miller A type storm as there will be little if any blocking to the north. I say the storm will start far to the south but will, at some point, cut sharply north as some of the models show. Without blocking, these type of storms usually cut farther west than progged. Could very well be a nice apps runner for OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Too many chiefs on the GGEM. But yes, the Boston magnet is unbelievable. Never seen anything like it. Amazing...and almost getting to nauseating levels. Yeah, what is it with Boston over the past several years? Other than the nasty winter of '11-'12, they have been way above average in snowfall and have been breaking records. Still waiting for climatology to catch up with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Canadian looks like a cluster****. cmc_pr6_slp_t850_east_24.png But, I suppose too early to completely give up. Well, for here it's on life support...but you guys in OH still very much in the game. Hopefully there are some positive trends in the next couple of days. You were ready to congratulate ORD-DTW yesterday IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anybody want to post the Euro total accumulated QPF or snowfall for this storm for the Rockies? Looks pretty awesome for Denver on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Most models hinting on the trough sharpening rapidly as it moves east. That gives the storm that strong meridional pull at the end. Don't need too much of a wward adjustment to get us into the game. 6 days to pull out an Apps runner. Doable. I'd rather be in this position than have a direct hit on the models at this range. Won't take much more amplification from the northern s/w to make this interesting... the NAO has a very positive look as well and theres no killer confluence like we have seen lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 (OT) To whoever says "punt, pass, or kick", dont say pass. We all know what happened in the Super Bowl This definitely has potential. At least for a southern subfourm hit. time to hunker down and watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd rather be in this position than have a direct hit on the models at this range. Won't take much more amplification from the northern s/w to make this interesting... the NAO has a very positive look as well and theres no killer confluence like we have seen lately. Agree. Was hoping for a couple of nice hits on the GEFs. Nope. A couple of interesting graze jobs and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You were ready to congratulate ORD-DTW yesterday IIRC. lol it's 120 hrs out. If the storm is bullseye-ing you, you're screwed. If the storm is warm tongue-ing you, you're screwed. If the storm is too far south ....apparently it's a lock We're never happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You were ready to congratulate ORD-DTW yesterday IIRC. Most people were lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Part of the problem with this potential is that it is coming out in pieces now, the Euro shoots out a piece as early as Sunday night into OK/AR/MO. which doesn't allow for the ridging to form ahead of the main piece. If that does end up happening this potential will be DOA for anyone north of the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Part of the problem with this potential is that it is coming out in pieces now, the Euro shoots out a piece as early as Sunday night into OK/AR/MO. which doesn't allow for the ridging to form ahead of the main piece. If that does end up happening this potential will be DOA for anyone north of the Ohio Valley. Yep. And this is what the 12z Euro does thereafter. Another move south and east with the second piece...which turns into a pretty nice SE winter storm. But with the way every new run is moving everything east...who knows where it'll end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wonder when the models will come to the real solotion? 00Z Saturday. I don't think Chicago Storm has begun a thread that didn't pan out for ORD in over two seasons. Hopes riding on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wonder when the models will come to the real solotion? 00Z Saturday. I don't think Chicago Storm has begun a thread that didn't pan out for ORD in over two seasons. Hopes riding on that.I started the Christmas Storm threads. My dominance from last season is gone.We're out of it for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, that 1029 high over N. Dakota is not all that strong. I'm banking on the se ridge off the coast strengthening and pushing this storm northwestward. in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, that 1029 high over N. Dakota is not all that strong. I'm banking on the se ridge off the coast strengthening and pushing this storm northwestward. in future runs. If we could muster a -PNA by then maybe, but right now it looks to be firmly positive at the point the storm ejects out. Plus any sort of initial piece like the Sunday night piece ejecting out early, will not allow for the ridging to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 hr 120 is when the main sw gets picked up and the trough starts heading east. This is the 138 hr map, there's no phasing with the northern branch at all but it's still close. If the northern branch digs more, (which has been a trend this season), we might have something better. I also think a big problem with the ridging out front is the location of that PV lobe north of the lakes in Canada . If that changes, either west or east or further north, that could have big ramifications as well. This is going to be a fun one to track over the next few days. It's a lot more fun to be able to root for a stronger nw solution...if it doesn't happen it doesn't happen. It still beats the hell out of sweating the advancing warm tongue with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wonder when the models will come to the real solotion? 00Z Saturday. I don't think Chicago Storm has begun a thread that didn't pan out for ORD in over two seasons. Hopes riding on that. Needed T-Snow to start it... He is riding the hot hand from the GHD duece blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Needed T-Snow to start it... He is riding the hot hand from the GHD duece blizz. I told him I would of but he already started it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hopefully Jonger didn't cancel his up north trip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 KIND Thurs. afternoon discussion going with recent southern trends of the storm on the current modeling and lowering precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Atlanta has a better shot at this one now than the entire state of Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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