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Feb 15-16th Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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Didn't the models have the December 23, 2004 storm as an east coast storm not even 48 hours before they shifted towards a favorable solution?

It dug way down into the gulf before sharply cutting NNE...

Careful as all the models have been upgraded a couple times since 2004 so that is kind of apple/oranges comparison.  Now with that said the Feb 1-2 storm had a couple GFS and EURO runs south and basically OTS on the EC.  Even some ensembles that said 'what storm'.  The models are struggling with the current pattern we are in so I would not be surprised by any solution right now.

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12z UK remains south/non-event for the sub-forum. 12z GGEM through 120 hours, also south. Punt, pass, or kick? 

 

I'd call the ggem more east then south.  Brings a strong low up the eastern side of the apps.  Looks like verbatim all the big cities go to heavy rain with a good thump for the apps and just to their western slopes.  

 

So what are the chances that the trough models deeper and the slp stronger and further west in the next few days?   Since we are still 5 days out, I'd put those chances greater than 50%.   

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Careful as all the models have been upgraded a couple times since 2004 so that is kind of apple/oranges comparison.

Now if we want to use that card, I can give more recent examples...:P

December 9th, 2010 (when models suddenly developed a 988mb over lake erie with 12hrs of the system's onset and we picked up a surprise 4-8" of snow after expecting a miss to the NW).

*February 5th, 2011 (when a lot of us saw, as michsnowfreak would say, 4-6" of partly sunny)

*January 5th, 2014 (when the models completely lost the storm and had merely a weak/suppressed OTS wave, before suddenly returning to the big snow solution once within 60hrs).

In any event, my point (with that example) was I wouldn't get too caught up in the recent model runs. The overall pattern actually favors a significant storm impacting our subforum versus the suppressed crap being shown. The bouncing around shouldn't be of any surprise given their especially awful performance lately...

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I'd call the ggem more east then south.  Brings a strong low up the eastern side of the apps.  Looks like verbatim all the big cities go to heavy rain with a good thump for the apps and just to their western slopes.  

 

So what are the chances that the trough models deeper and the slp stronger and further west in the next few days?   Since we are still 5 days out, I'd put those chances greater than 50%.   

 

Canadian looks like a cluster****. :lol:

 

 

But, I suppose too early to completely give up. Well, for here it's on life support...but you guys in OH still very much in the game. Hopefully there are some positive trends in the next couple of days. :)

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Canadian looks like a cluster****. :lol:

 

attachicon.gifcmc_pr6_slp_t850_east_24.png

 

But, I suppose too early to completely give up. Well, for here it's on life support...but you guys in OH still very much in the game. Hopefully there are some positive trends in the next couple of days. :)

 

it kind of pops a low north of the original low?  Must have been afraid it was going to rain on boston if it kept that southern low as a primary :lol:

 

needless to say, we have a long way to go on settling this one.   I still say sunday 00z will be the first glimpse of the actual solution.

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that's what I get for looking at those crappy black and white maps.  Actually the ggem does have the heaviest stripe well to our south and then hits the I-95ers

 

Most models hinting on the trough sharpening rapidly as it moves east. That gives the storm that strong meridional pull at the end. Don't need too much of a wward adjustment to get us into the game. 

 

6 days to pull out an Apps runner. Doable.

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it kind of pops a low north of the original low?  Must have been afraid it was going to rain on boston if it kept that southern low as a primary :lol:

 

Too many chiefs on the GGEM. But yes, the Boston magnet is unbelievable. Never seen anything like it. Amazing...and almost getting to nauseating levels. ;):lol:

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I'd call the ggem more east then south.  Brings a strong low up the eastern side of the apps.  Looks like verbatim all the big cities go to heavy rain with a good thump for the apps and just to their western slopes.  

 

So what are the chances that the trough models deeper and the slp stronger and further west in the next few days?   Since we are still 5 days out, I'd put those chances greater than 50%.   

To me, it's going to be hard to get a Miller A type storm as there will be little if any blocking to the north.  I say the storm will start far to the south but will, at some point, cut sharply north as some of the models show.  Without blocking, these type of storms usually cut farther west than progged.  Could very well be a nice apps runner for OH.

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Too many chiefs on the GGEM. But yes, the Boston magnet is unbelievable. Never seen anything like it. Amazing...and almost getting to nauseating levels. ;):lol:

Yeah, what is it with Boston over the past several years?  Other than the nasty winter of '11-'12, they have been way above average in snowfall and have been breaking records.  Still waiting for climatology to catch up with them.

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Canadian looks like a cluster****. :lol:

 

attachicon.gifcmc_pr6_slp_t850_east_24.png

 

But, I suppose too early to completely give up. Well, for here it's on life support...but you guys in OH still very much in the game. Hopefully there are some positive trends in the next couple of days. :)

 

 

You were ready to congratulate ORD-DTW yesterday IIRC.

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Most models hinting on the trough sharpening rapidly as it moves east. That gives the storm that strong meridional pull at the end. Don't need too much of a wward adjustment to get us into the game. 

 

6 days to pull out an Apps runner. Doable.

 

I'd rather be in this position than have a direct hit on the models at this range. Won't take much more amplification from the northern s/w to make this interesting... the NAO has a very positive look as well and theres no killer confluence like we have seen lately.

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I'd rather be in this position than have a direct hit on the models at this range. Won't take much more amplification from the northern s/w to make this interesting... the NAO has a very positive look as well and theres no killer confluence like we have seen lately.

 

Agree. Was hoping for a couple of nice hits on the GEFs. Nope. A couple of interesting graze jobs and that's about it. :lol:

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Part of the problem with this potential is that it is coming out in pieces now, the Euro shoots out a piece as early as Sunday night into OK/AR/MO. which doesn't allow for the ridging to form ahead of the main piece. If that does end up happening this potential will be DOA for anyone north of the Ohio Valley.

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Part of the problem with this potential is that it is coming out in pieces now, the Euro shoots out a piece as early as Sunday night into OK/AR/MO. which doesn't allow for the ridging to form ahead of the main piece. If that does end up happening this potential will be DOA for anyone north of the Ohio Valley.

 

Yep. And this is what the 12z Euro does thereafter. Another move south and east with the second piece...which turns into a pretty nice SE winter storm. But with the way every new run is moving everything east...who knows where it'll end up. :D

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Wonder when the models will come to the real solotion? 00Z Saturday. I don't think Chicago Storm has begun a thread that didn't pan out for ORD in over two seasons. Hopes riding on that.

I started the Christmas Storm threads. My dominance from last season is gone.

We're out of it for this one.

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Well, that 1029 high over N. Dakota is not all that strong. I'm banking on the se ridge off the coast strengthening and pushing this storm northwestward. in future runs.

If we could muster a -PNA by then maybe, but right now it looks to be firmly positive at the point the storm ejects out. Plus any sort of initial piece like the Sunday night piece ejecting out early, will not allow for the ridging to occur.
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hr 120 is when the main sw gets picked up and the trough starts heading east.  This is the 138 hr map, there's no phasing with the northern branch at all but it's still close. If the northern branch digs more, (which has been a trend this season), we might have something better.

I also think a big problem with the ridging out front is the location of that PV lobe north of the lakes in Canada .  If that changes, either west or east or further north, that could have big ramifications as well.

 

This is going to be a fun one to track over the next few days.   It's a lot more fun to be able to root for a stronger nw solution...if it doesn't happen it doesn't happen.  It still beats the hell out of sweating the advancing warm tongue with each model run.

post-622-0-89662100-1423769281_thumb.jpg

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