Indystorm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z GFS still south with Ohio Valley potential. Strong Arctic high pressure. We'll see what future runs bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It will be interesting what model pulls the trigger on a phasing The GGEM was the first with the last storm. Compared to the last system, there's alot more factors at play here. So lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GGEM was the first with the last storm. Compared to the last system, there's alot more factors at play here. So lets see! wasn't the ggem one of the furthest south models with the last storm? I know leading up to the storm the ggem was the last model to finally cave and shift north. I recall that well because it was our last hope, in fact the euro moved north before the ggem did. The gfs and nam did better. The uk was actually the furthest north of all of them 6 days out and never waivered from that solution, everyone, including myself, thought it looked goofy....damn thing ended up being right with a track to northeast Ohio. Interesting that the UK is now the most suppressed with next weeks storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 wasn't the ggem one of the furthest south models with the last storm? I know leading up to the storm the ggem was the last model to finally cave and shift north. I recall that well because it was our last hope, in fact the euro moved north before the ggem did. The gfs and nam did better. The uk was actually the furthest north of all of them 6 days out and never waivered from that solution, everyone, including myself, thought it looked goofy....damn thing ended up being right with a track to northeast Ohio. Interesting that the UK is now the most suppressed with next weeks storm The GGEM had some big runs like a week+ out, but then lost it or kept it suppressed until it got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Upper air charts really paint the picture with this storm. The wind charts just show how much is at stake with this storm. Strong Pacific and Polar jet-stream will make way for a nice tight gradient between the north and the south. The 18z GFS has a weak SE ridge around Bermuda and this could benefit us if the other factors (timing -->phasing) come together. Thats a strong jet-streak (bodes well for good storm development) and you can see the STJ influence coming into this. The PNA ridge out West is in an ideal position for a more inland track and a weak East Based -NAO near Greenland. Timing is everything. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GFS moved a bit north with the sfc low, taking it over Nashville and looks better as you'd expect aloft with the height configuration and wave phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GFS moved a bit north with the sfc low, taking it over Nashville and looks better as you'd expect aloft with the height configuration and wave phasing. The vort was stronger as it came ashore, still though it gets flattened by this northern stream piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 0z GGEM has the sfc low in central Kentucky (similar to the 0z GFS) at 144 hours. Hard to tell what the situation is based on the black and white charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah the 0z GEM continues it's baby step north trend now for the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro buries New England again... GAG ME! Thank god it is out in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS and GEM inched north, then the Euro said how about we put the best snow through AR and TN. It literally falls off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS and GEM inched north, then the Euro said how about we put the best snow through AR and TN. It literally falls off the table. Yeah but it did trend better aloft. Look at H5 at 156-162hr compared to the 12z run. Decent improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah but it did trend better aloft. Look at H5 at 156-162hr compared to the 12z run. Decent improvement. All a matter of how quick we can kick out the Friday clipper and get more ridging ahead of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah but it did trend better aloft. Look at H5 at 156-162hr compared to the 12z run. Decent improvement. Yeah aloft from 120hr on looked good but things didn't work out at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah aloft from 120hr on looked good but things didn't work out at the surface. Had a bit to do with the PV which drops a piece of energy in which forces everything to our se. Had a similar thing with Feb 1/2 and the models doing this if i recall correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Had a bit to do with the PV which drops a piece of energy in which forces everything to our se. Had a similar thing with Feb 1/2 and the models doing this if i recall correctly? Yes a bit but no where near like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like that the euro is so far south. But I don't like how its so far apart from the GFS/GEM. Makes me wonder if it will soon catch up. And being in the bullseye this far out is typically not good! Hoping for some consistency in the next few runs rather than significant jumps either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My motto as always for SE MI...honestly 4-5 days out, no worries (or.excitement) about the storm next week from me. As long as a storm is shown all is fine. If we get to 2-3 days out and it continue to trend away, thats a different story. But we still have 2 more days where watching the models is just like.a tv show imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ohio Valley maybe due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My gut's telling me that this is going to be an I 70 special. I saw what you just posted as I was typing this Baum and you may be right. But I'm thinking the models will continue to trend a little north, but not cut through Toledo this time due to stronger suppression. I really think that IND will get off of the snide (6" for season) and the CMH crew will be happy. Now that I've thrown out my uneducated thoughts, we'll just sit back and watch what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My gut's telling me that this is going to be an I 70 special. I saw what you just posted as I was typing this Baum and you may be right. But I'm thinking the models will continue to trend a little north, but not cut through Toledo this time due to stronger suppression. I really think that IND will get off of the snide (6" for season) and the CMH crew will be happy. Now that I've thrown out my uneducated thoughts, we'll just sit back and watch what happens. IND is probably too far north...which is funny/cruel because they've been a bit too far south a few other times this winter. As it is right now, I think I'd rather be in PAH, EVV, SDF, CVG, etc for this one. 0z EPS backs up the op pretty well. 0z and 6z GEFS are also pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Last four runs of the GFS: 48 hour total snowfall from the 1/11 12z to 1/12 6z run. Soooo, have gone from 6-8" here to smoking cirrus. Great model...good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 IND is probably too far north...which is funny/cruel because they've been a bit too far south a few other times this winter. As it is right now, I think I'd rather be in PAH, EVV, SDF, CVG, etc for this one. 0z EPS backs up the op pretty well. 0z and 6z GEFS are also pretty far south. I think I'd rather be north of where the model average is placing the snow band right now. I think the greater risk is that this comes north instead of continuing south, and the potential for something big is on the table if we can get the phasing to work out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I'd rather be north of where the model average is placing the snow band right now. I think the greater risk is that this comes north instead of continuing south, and the potential for something big is on the table if we can get the phasing to work out better. Welp, 12z GFS says everyone gets shutout. I realize models aren't perfect, but geez some of these performances are abysmal. Though, the UK has been way south and a non-event all along. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Might have to change the thread title Feb 16-17th Clipper potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Welp, 12z GFS says everyone gets shutout. I realize models aren't perfect, but geez some of these performances are abysmal. Though, the UK has been way south and a non-event all along. Interesting... I guess the thing I'm pinning some hope on is that the northern stream wave will cooperate more as we get closer, as it seems like there's been a general trend this winter to underestimate the amplification at this timeframe. We need that to come in farther south/west. But that's only one part of the puzzle. We've pretty much reached the bottom on some of these model solutions... in terms of a weak piece of junk. Nowhere to go but up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Holy cow the 12Z GFS was a run for this forum!!! this is 132 hrs out.... personally I'd gladly work with this. In fact MUCH further nw is not out of the question. No strong HP to the north is one glaring thing I see. Sharpen that trough at 120 and a tad more phase, and this is a diff scenario completely....and it may not be good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We are in that range where storms are lost...those in the Ohio Valley to New England likely in a good spot this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Didn't the models have the December 23, 2004 storm as an east coast storm not even 48 hours before they shifted towards a favorable solution? It dug way down into the gulf before sharply cutting NNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z UK remains south/non-event for the sub-forum. 12z GGEM through 120 hours, also south. Punt, pass, or kick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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