Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Chicago to Detroit get crushed, more rain sandwiched between below zero temps for CMH. Same ole, same ole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GFS took another baby step in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 No shortage of precipitation, overall, on the 12z GFS. Anyways yeah...probably know where this one is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nothing like being in the GFS bullseye at 7 days out. Like I said, Chicago to Detroit get hammered, rain between artic air masses here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 4:22 PM, JayPSU said: Chicago to Detroit get crushed, more rain sandwiched between below zero temps for CMH. Same ole, same ole. Sounds about right rich get richer and I-70 from MO to OH gets screwed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 How many consecutive runs would have to show this before I actually started believing it? I would say at least 6, maybe 8...with solid model consensus. However, as noted in the long range thread, this really is the only type of setup that yields major snow along the Ohio R...any signs of a stonger LP, even if it still looked like a hit for us, would obviously be the precursor to some bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 4:38 PM, Chicago WX said: No shortage of precipitation, overall, on the 12z GFS. gfs qpf.gif gfs snow.gif Anyways yeah...probably know where this one is headed. Your backyard I'm guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 At this point, given the lack of ridging over the east coast I cant see this cutting too far NW. With that said, I don't think I would want to be south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The first thing to watch is going to be this Sat/Sun System that bombs out on the NE/Atlantic Ocean. This will help establish the trough strength and position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Debbie downer **** for a storm 5+ days away is pretty annoying. Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 12z GEM took a nice jump north from it's 0z run but still south of the GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 5:07 PM, Brewers said: At this point, given the lack of ridging over the east coast I cant see this cutting too far NW. With that said, I don't think I would want to be south of I-70. It's safe to rule out a MSP/daddylonglegs special, but I think everyone in the lower lakes/Ohio Valley is certainly in the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 5:20 PM, Powerball said: It's safe to rule out a MSP/daddylonglegs special, but I think everyone in the lower lakes/Ohio Valley is certainly in the game... Agreed. Although I think this system will have a more northerly component compared to the early month one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 4:23 PM, Powerball said: 12z GFS took another baby step in the right direction... gfs is south of it's previous run with the low track, significantly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 5:16 PM, Whitelakeroy said: The first thing to watch is going to be this Sat/Sun System that bombs out on the NE/Atlantic Ocean. This will help establish the trough strength and position. agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 4:38 PM, Chicago WX said: No shortage of precipitation, overall, on the 12z GFS. gfs qpf.gif gfs snow.gif Anyways yeah...probably know where this one is headed. Probably safe to assume that this will be on for awhile... I like the setup though, but likely wont pay too much attention until saturday-ish. Too many moving parts out in front at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Is this going to be from that huge low in the Pacific, that had winds affecting both Hawaii and the Aleutians at the same time? http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-143.85,35.63,671 (Time sensitive) The above is awesome site. If you move the globe you can also see the low off the Eastern Seaboard in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 5:33 PM, buckeye said: gfs is south of it's previous run with the low track, significantly so. I was mainly referring to how the shortwave was digging more than previous runs which could allow for a sharper NE cut later on, and the 12z GFS wasn't far off from doing that with the low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Many of the 12z GEFS & GGEM ensembles are a lot further NW than the OP FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 6:00 PM, dan123 said: Many of the 12z GEFS & GGEM ensembles are a lot further NW than the OP FWIW. Track differences aside, pretty good agreement on there being a storm in this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Unlike Super Bowl event much colder air to work with if all goes according to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 250 jet goes bonkers over OV @ H162 via the 12Z GFS....couple of good images in previous hours too back into Chicago.... this should be fun to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 6:20 PM, Gilbertfly said: 250 jet goes bonkers over OV @ H162 via the 12Z GFS....couple of good images in previous hours too back into Chicago.... this should be fun to watch unfold Yes, this is something that bears watching..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 5:45 PM, TimChgo9 said: Is this going to be from that huge low in the Pacific, that had winds affecting both Hawaii and the Aleutians at the same time? http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-143.85,35.63,671 (Time sensitive) The above is awesome site. If you move the globe you can also see the low off the Eastern Seaboard in the Atlantic. OT but I think it is odd that the river in North America they show is the missouri instead of the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro took a giant step backwards this run. It does kick out a small piece early but the main show runs through the south. It is a possible solution though not the most likely in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 6:57 PM, Stebo said: Euro took a giant step backwards this run. It does kick out a small piece early but the main show runs through the south. It is a possible solution though not the most likely in this scenario. Based on the 24hr maps,, It looks like the 12z GFS... But maybe not. Hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z Euro is well south. Ohio River and south does best, with a late run towards getting OH some love at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 6:59 PM, Powerball said: Based on the 24hr maps,, It looks like the 12z GFS... But maybe not. Hard to tell. Nah much further south than the GFS. Problem is until the vorticity max forms we are going to see this sort of back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 6:08 PM, Hoosier said: Track differences aside, pretty good agreement on there being a storm in this period. That's about all we can realistically say from this time period. Would love to have a central MO/IL/IN/Ohio special but I have my doubts at the moment. Will be interesting to watch the lake snows and this system develop here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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