Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

.....


bluewave

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 852
  • Created
  • Last Reply

After today ...averaging 21.6 here for the month...coldest Feb on station record is 22.5 in 1979 and coldest month overall is 20.5 in Jan 1977.

 

 

Through today I have a mean temp of 22.3F,  mean max of 32.9F and mean min of 11.7F.

 

I've had 12 days with minima temperatures below 10 degrees, 2 of which were sub zero. Lowest -5F, the coldest I've recorded on my station since installing in 2007.

 

On the 20th I had my lowest mean temp I've recorded: 8.9F. High was 17.6 and a low of 0.1.

 

Departure of -11.5 thus far. We have some good radiational cooling nights coming up Fri and Sat nights which should be well down into the single digits.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The sharper satellite image today does a better job of showing the ice build up

on the area waterways. Significant ice floes on the Long Island Sound can be

seen more clearly today. The ice between Nassau and the Bronx

is also very impressive. There are probably some great photos to be had

looking east from the Throgs Neck Bridge.

Screen shot 2015-02-25 at 1.17.45 PM.png

Great South Bay is pretty locked up. You can see where "new" old inlet from sandy is actually keep the back end of the GSB open. I would imagine the ice will reach its maximum this weekend before slowly easing into March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NYC is currently in third place for the coldest February with a strong cold finish expected in the

daily departures for Friday and Saturday. The -11 or more departure would be the greatest

negative monthly departure for NYC on record.

19.9...1934

22.7...1885

24.0....2015...-11.0.....through 2/24

24.1...1895

24.8...1905

Greatest negative monthly temperature departures in NYC

Feb 34.....19.9....est..-10.9

Jan 77......22.1..........-10.1

Dec 89.....25.9..........-10.3

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-8ABC4A08-4785-4877-BEB6-38D6223307C0.pdf

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-FF3F70C0-805F-400A-8166-D737D3EB45CA.pdf

So the average temperature in February 1934 was about 5 degrees colder than it is now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

KNYC will end up with a minimum of 32 or lower for the 28 days in February...Other years with 28 for 28 were 1885, 1901 and 1934...1904 and 1924 were 28 for 29 days...As of tomorrow KNYC will have 35 consecutive days with a minimum of 32 or lower...If March 1st-2nd are below 32 2015 will be tied for ninth place for consecutive days with a minimum 32 or lower...

consecutive days with a 32 minimum...

56 in 1880-81

51 in 1976-77

47 in 1915-16

45 in 1969-70

45 in 1887-88

44 in 1917-18

43 in 1878-79

41 in 1894-95

37 in 1900-01

37 in 2014-15 as of 3/2/15

36 in 1933-34

36 in 2006-07

36 in 1944-45

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

 

19.9...1934

22.7...1885

24.0....2015...-11.0.....through 2/24

24.1...1895

24.8...1905

 

 

 

I wonder how the UHI effect in 2015 compares to the same in 1934 and 1885...Meaning the surrounding areas of NYC that experience more radiation cooling, may be having a more historically cold February than the above list may indicate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The current February average temperature in NYC is 35.3. The 1901-1930 30 year average

for February was close to 30.8. The chart below illustrates the steadily rising February temperatures

in NYC since then.

 

attachicon.gifScreen shot 2015-02-21 at 8.50.45 AM.png

 

Hypothetical question, but is it safe to assume that this airmass, had it occurred in 1934, could have possibly been even colder than as it occurred in 2015?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the average temperature in KNYC for February will end up around 24.1...tied for third coldest...my February stats...

February
Decade averages...
decade..ave.t...high....low.....ave max/min...max....min....snowfall...big snow...precipitation...
1870's....30.6....37.0....25.2..........................69......-1........9.3"......11.0"......2.71"
1880's....30.5....37.2....22.7....55.2......4.5....69......-4........7.9"........9.0"......4.07"
1890's....31.9....37.9....24.1....54.6......6.2....68......-6......10.1"......16.0"......3.65"
1900's....29.4....37.7....24.8....52.2......6.8....62.......1........9.3"......11.0"......3.54"
1910's....30.4....35.9....25.4....55.5......4.8....62......-6........7.5"........9.7"......3.44"
1920's....32.1....37.9....26.2....54.3......8.7....64......-2......12.2"......17.5"......4.32"
1930's....32.5....37.0....19.9....58.7......7.8....75.....-15.......7.6"......10.0"......3.13"
1940's....32.6....38.6....29.3....58.1......9.7....73......-8........8.9"......10.7"......2.53"
1950's....35.1....40.1....27.4....58.5....10.1....71.......0........4.0"........7.9"......2.73"
1960's....32.6....36.7....28.3....56.1......8.4....65......-2......10.1"......17.4"......3.31"
1970's....32.6....39.9....25.5....58.7......8.6....70.......0........9.9"......17.7"......3.69"
1980's....35.4....40.6....31.4....60.9....13.0....75.......4........5.4"......17.6"......3.08"
1990's....36.3....40.6....30.6....62.5....11.0....72.......5........8.7"......12.8"......2.99"
2000's....35.2....40.6....28.2....59.7....13.8....68.......8......10.1"......26.9"......2.64"

2010's....33.3....40.9....24.1....54.8....13.3....67.......2......15.8"......20.9"......3.88"
1880-
2009......32.7....38.4....26.4....57.3......8.7....69......-1........8.6"......13.9......3.27"

1980-09..35.6....40.6....30.1....61.0....12.6....72.......6........8.1"......19.1".....2.90"


Coldest.........Warmest.........Wettest..........Driest...........snowiest
19.9 in 1934...40.9 in 2012...6.87" in 1869...0.46" in 1895...36.9" in 2010
22.7 in 1885...40.6 in 1998...6.83" in 1896...0.55" in 1901...29.0" in 2014
24.1 in 2015...40.6 in 1984...6.69" in 2010...0.71" in 2002...27.9" in 1934
24.1 in 1895...40.6 in 2002...6.41" in 1920...0.93" in 2009...26.9" in 2006
24.8 in 1905...40.1 in 1954...6.20" in 1939...0.94" in 1892...26.4" in 1994
25.2 in 1875...40.0 in 1997...6.14" in 1893...1.01" in 1987...26.3" in 1926
25.4 in 1904...40.0 in 1991...6.04" in 1981...1.04" in 1980...26.1" in 2003
25.4 in 1914...39.9 in 1976...6.01" in 1915...1.13" in 1968...25.3" in 1899
25.5 in 1979...39.8 in 1990...5.96" in 1887...1.24" in 1877...25.3" in 1920
25.7 in 1936...39.3 in 1981...5.95" in 2008...1.29" in 1872...23.6" in 1967
Highest temperatures...
75 in 1930 2/25
75 in 1985 2/24
73 in 1949 2/15
72 in 1997 2/27
71 in 1954 2/16
70 in 1976 2/25
70 in 1991 2/5
70 in 1985 2/23
Coldest temperatures...
-15 in 1934 2/9
-8 in 1943 2/15
-7 in 1934 2/8
-6 in 1899 2/10
-6 in 1918 2/5
-5 in 1896 2/17
-4 in 1886 2/5
-4 in 1895 2/6
-4 in 1873 2/24
Coldest monthly max...
41 in 1978
41 in 1905
42 in 1934
42 in 1901

43 in 2015
44 in 1969
44 in 1923
46 in 2010
46 in 1924
46 in 1895
46 in 1885
Warmest monthly minimum...
22 in 1927
20 in 2012
19 in 1897
19 in 1964
19 in 1982
19 in 2000
19 in 2002
18 in 1986
18 in 1960
18 in 1957
18 in 1932
Biggest snowfalls...
26.9" in 2006 2/11-12
20.9" in 2010 2/25-26
19.8" in 2003 2/16-17
17.7" in 1978 2/6-7
17.6" in 1983 2/11-12
17.5" in 1920 2/4-7
17.4" in 1961 2/3-4
16.0" in 1899 2/12-13
15.3" in 1969 2/9-10
12.8" in 1994 2/11
12.7" in 1979 2/19
12.5" in 1921 2/20
12.5" in 1967 2/7

12.5" in 2014 2/13-14... 9.5"/3.0"
12.0" in 1926 2/9-10

11.4" in 2013 2/8-9
11.0" in 1876 2/3-4
11.0" in 1907 2/4-5
10.8" in 1995 2/4
10.7" in 1947 2/20-21
10.7" in 1996 2/16-17
10.4" in 1926 2/3-4
10.0" in 1902 2/17
10.0" in 1933 2/11
10.0" in 2010 2/9-10
least snowiest...
0 in 1998...
T in 2002
T in 1981
T in 1971
T in 1938

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that's not how it works

 

Perhaps, but wouldn't that line be more accurate if wasn't a straight linear regression?

 

If we did a regression on NYC snowfall data though about the early nineties, it would probably project out to less annual snowfall than Atlanta by about now.  It doesn't work that way either.

 

These lines are curved.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perhaps, but wouldn't that line be more accurate if wasn't a straight linear regression?

 

If we did a regression on NYC snowfall data though about the early nineties, it would probably project out to less annual snowfall than Atlanta by about now.  It doesn't work that way either.

 

These lines are curved.

 

 

Agree. Most of the warming occurred in the early part of the 20th century for NYC, from the 1900-1940 period. If we started the regression toward the mid point of the 20th century, the warming trend would be significantly less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that's not how it works

No, not at all.

 

One could start a regression analysis using data at any starting point. 

 

The above graph uses 1900 as a starting point.

 

As I said, if one uses 1981 as a starting point then the temperature trend line for Feb. in NYC would be decreasing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why would you use 1981 as a starting point when when the poster was asking me about what the average

temperature was in NYC from 1901-1930 compared to today?

 

 

Why would you use 1981 as a starting point when when the poster was asking me about what the average

temperature was in NYC from 1901-1930 compared to today? All the top ranking cold years were in the

late 1800's and early 1900's.

 

What?

 

I never said that one should use a starting point of 1981 if one is talking about drawing a trend line from 1900 to present.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The chart below illustrates the steadily rising February temperatures

in NYC since then.

Your verbiage not only implies...but clearly states, that temperatures have been steadily rising since then...which implies that the increase in temperature is continuous from then until now (the use of the word "since" is elemental to this conclusion); which it clearly is not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...