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bluewave

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Record lows before midnight tonight and Tuesday

 

RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY FEBRUARY 23

EWR.....10/1972*
BDR......7/1972
NYC......5/1889*
LGA.....10/1972
JFK.....14/1999*
ISP.....15/1999*

 

RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 24

EWR......6/1934
BDR.....12/1968
NYC.....-4/1873
LGA.....16/1968
JFK.....14/1968
ISP.....17/2011*

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The 12z GFS suggests that some parts of the NYC Metro Area could challenge or break their 2/23 record low temperatures before midnight and then break tomorrow's figures, as well. Upstream, Flint's -17° temperature broke the 2/23 daily figure of -10° from 2011 and Cleveland's -5° reading edged the previous daily record of -4° from 1873.

 

Furthermore, as of 11 am, NYC's February mean temperature stood at 24.5°. That currently ranks as the 4th coldest February average on record. February 1895's mean temperature of 24.1° is 3rd. If the 12z GFS is reasonably accurate, February 2015 could wind up as the 3rd coldest February on record, with only February 1885 (22.7°) and February 1934 (19.9°) having had a lower mean temperature (though the February 2015 departure from normal could set a record).

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The 12z GFS suggests that some parts of the NYC Metro Area could challenge or break their 2/23 record low temperatures before midnight and then break tomorrow's figures, as well. Upstream, Flint's -13° temperature broke the 2/23 daily figure of -10° from 2011 and Cleveland's -5° reading edged the previous daily record of -4° from 1873.

 

Furthermore, as of 11 am, NYC's February mean temperature stood at 24.5°. That currently ranks as the 4th coldest February average on record. February 1895's mean temperature of 24.1° is 3rd. If the 12z GFS is reasonably accurate, February 2015 could wind up as the 3rd coldest February on record, with only February 1885 (22.7°) and February 1934 (19.9°) having had a lower mean temperature (though the February 2015 departure from normal could set a record).

 

Even more impressive, this month will finish in the top 10 coldest months ever records, nevermind just February. This month will beat almost all Januaries as well. What's also amazing is that all of the months colder than this one were pre-1950, and in most cases, pre 1935, with the exception of 1977.

 

 Another point is that there were only 2 Febs in the top 8 coldest months. This will likely be the 3rd February in the top 8 coldest months.

 

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:AlC9PTQOeG8J:www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

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Even more impressive, this month will finish in the top 10 coldest months ever records, nevermind just February. This month will beat almost all Januaries as well. What's also amazing is that all of the months colder than this one were pre-1950, and in most cases, pre 1935, with the exception of 1977.

 

 Another point is that there were only 2 Febs in the top 8 coldest months. This will likely be the 3rd February in the top 8 coldest months.

 

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:AlC9PTQOeG8J:www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

I agree. With respect to temperature anomalies, February 2015 has a realistic probability of finishing at 11° or more below normal. That would top the February 1934 and January 1977 anomalies from their respective norms.

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the last 30 days are averaging around 25.8...1/24-2/22...By Feb. 28th the average from 1/30-2/28 could be around 24.0...1934 averaged 19.6 from 1/31-3/1...1936 averaged 20.4 from 1/23-2/21 if my math is correct...24.0 would tie for ninth place for the coldest 30 days since 1934...

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The rapid temperature drop showing up in the models for later this afternoon

into the evening would give NYC a single digit low for both today and Tuesday.

NYC would move up to 7 February single digit lows right behind 1979.

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Below10DegreeDays.pdf

 

Most February single digit lows in NYC

 

12...1875

10...1934

8.....1979

6.....1917, 1914, 1881

5.....2015..so far

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The rapid temperature drop showing up in the models for later this afternoon

into the evening would give NYC a single digit low for both today and Tuesday.

NYC would move up to 7 February single digit lows right behind 1979.

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Below10DegreeDays.pdf

 

Most February single digit lows in NYC

 

12...1875

10...1934

8.....1979

6.....1917, 1914, 1881

5.....2015..so far

 

 

And point & click shows 9 and 10 for Thurs/Fri nights respectively at Central Park. Highest scenario would be a finish with 9 days, coming in 3rd place.

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I'm going go out on a limb and say that tonight has a shot at producing a -20F reading here as well. My low on the 16th was -17.7F, and it seems that radiating conditions will be somewhat better tonight. Winds are currently quite active from the NW, but should die down over the next several hours. Not ideal for places like Central Park that rely on CAA to produce subzero lows, but in good radiating spots throughout the countryside, temps look to drop like a tank.

 

I'm more convinced every year that extreme cold is just as interesting as heavy snow.

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Either way I think most stations will be setting records for coldest so late in season...Got down to 0 here a few days ago for the first time in 11 years...If I make it below zero tonight it would be first time since 1994.

Where i'm at my thermometer read 0 before i left work so i kind of hope I get below zero as well.

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I'm going go out on a limb and say that tonight has a shot at producing a -20F reading here as well. My low on the 16th was -17.7F, and it seems that radiating conditions will be somewhat better tonight. Winds are currently quite active from the NW, but should die down over the next several hours. Not ideal for places like Central Park that rely on CAA to produce subzero lows, but in good radiating spots throughout the countryside, temps look to drop like a tank.

 

I'm more convinced every year that extreme cold is just as interesting as heavy snow.

I agree...I think for those of us that have weather stations its interesting to see how low we can get in our backyards...I really don't care what the temp is at an official station that's tens of miles away from me in an urban setting...I'd gladly trade in a few inches of snow for extreme cold.

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