NycStormChaser Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Friday is going to be an easier NYC record low break than Monday was since we are getting later in the month when the record lows are higher. 2/20 record low NYC 7 in 1950 8 in 1966 8 in 1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Friday is going to be an easier NYC record low break than Monday was since we are getting later in the month when the record lows are higher. 2/20 record low NYC 7 in 1950 8 in 1966 8 in 1959 I remember the 1966 cold wave like yesterday...the cold front brought a snow squall that put down a dusting but made streets icy...There were a few accidents that night...A few days later there was 6" of wet snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Using the 850mb method, I'm calculating a low of about 2-3F in NYC Friday morning. I'd like to see 850mb temperatures slightly colder. If they bottom out around -24C, it'll probably be a near miss. I think we need at least -25C. The other problem I see is there may not be clear skies, but I'm not sure that matters so much with it being windy anyway with strong CAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Does anybody know when was the last time NYC hit 40 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Does anybody know when was the last time NYC hit 40 degrees? I think jb tweeted something the other day about NYC setting a record for consecutive days not getting above 43 degrees...hit 40 here back on the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Does anybody know when was the last time NYC hit 40 degrees? I think last Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think last Thursday?I was thinking the same thing but I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think jb tweeted something the other day about NYC setting a record for consecutive days not getting above 43 degrees...hit 40 here back on the 4th. Id like to know that... Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think jb tweeted something the other day about NYC setting a record for consecutive days not getting above 43 degrees...hit 40 here back on the 4th. the beginning of January was above 43 degrees...the monthly max is 43 on the 4th in NYC...I'm not sure about the record for days below 43 but in February 1978 the max was only 41...1969 didn't get above 49 for almost three months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 the beginning of January was above 43 degrees...the monthly max is 43 on the 4th in NYC...I'm not sure about the record for days below 43 but in February 1978 the max was only 41...1969 didn't get above 49 for almost three months... this is the 43rd days with the temperature 43 or lower tying 1978 from late Jan to early March...it looks like the record is 57 days set in 1880-81... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I remember the 1966 cold wave like yesterday...the cold front brought a snow squall that put down a dusting but made streets icy...There were a few accidents that night...A few days later there was 6" of wet snow... It would be very impressive if NYC dipped below 5 degrees Friday since the last time that happened between 2/20-2/29 I believe was 1914. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It would be very impressive if NYC dipped below 5 degrees Friday since the last time that happened between 2/20-2/29 I believe was 1914. Screen shot 2015-02-17 at 7.11.39 PM.png since 1950 the years with single digit temps from 2/20 on... 5 2/21/68 6 2/21/50 7 2/20/50 8 3/19/67 8 2/27/50 8 2/20/66 8 2/20/59 8 2/22/63 9 2/28/14 9 2/26/70 9 2/23/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 since 1950 the years with single digit temps from 2/20 on... 5 2/21/68 6 2/21/50 7 2/20/50 8 3/19/67 8 2/27/50 8 2/20/66 8 2/20/59 8 2/22/63 9 2/28/14 9 2/26/70 9 2/23/72 Once in 40+ years and we could go back to back here (years wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Radiating well...winds light... 9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I had 4 at 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I was at 11 below at 5:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think we will have another 3 weeks before we even hit 40 degrees. This weekend system is not cutting west of us, models are wrong with this. Pattern is too progressive, and Arctic high from Central US will press in here Sunday like strongly. I think we stay below freezing the entire weekend by the way. I think now through 3/12/15 fail to hit freezing. Maybe the pattern changes slightly warmer after that. Folks the +PNA / -EPO are not going anywhere, looking at the EURO runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 since 1950 the years with single digit temps from 2/20 on... 5 2/21/68 6 2/21/50 7 2/20/50 8 3/19/67 8 2/27/50 8 2/20/66 8 2/20/59 8 2/22/63 9 2/28/14 9 2/26/70 9 2/23/72 Impressive, so dipping under 5 would be a first since 1914. NYC 2/15/15.....25......4.......15........-20......February do date....25.8....-8.3... 2/16/15.....21......3.......12........-23..................................24.9.....-9.2 2/17/15.....27......14.....21........-15..................................24.7.....-9.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wow for the UHI: 4 in Armonk while 23 in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 06z NAM continues to show everyone below zero on Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Impressive, so dipping under 5 would be a first since 1914. NYC 2/15/15.....25......4.......15........-20......February do date....25.8....-8.3... 2/16/15.....21......3.......12........-23..................................24.9.....-9.2 2/17/15.....27......14.....21........-15..................................24.7.....-9.6 Asked this in another thread but it was deleted. Does anyone know when NYC last hit 0 on or after 2/19? Seems they have at least a chance to get there Friday morning. Stats for 5 degrees or less are impressive enough. Just interested on when it last might of hit 0 after 2/19. Thanks to anyone in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think we will have another 3 weeks before we even hit 40 degrees. This weekend system is not cutting west of us, models are wrong with this. Pattern is too progressive, and Arctic high from Central US will press in here Sunday like strongly. I think we stay below freezing the entire weekend by the way. I think now through 3/12/15 fail to hit freezing. Maybe the pattern changes slightly warmer after that. Folks the +PNA / -EPO are not going anywhere, looking at the EURO runs. Lol, and you live in SE Nassau... it would be one thing if you were like in Orange Cty but this is even more delusional considering your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Asked this in another thread but it was deleted. Does anyone know when NYC last hit 0 on or after 2/19? Seems they have at least a chance to get there Friday morning. Stats for 5 degrees or less are impressive enough. Just interested on when it last might of hit 0 after 2/19. Thanks to anyone in advance. I see a -1 on the 24th in 1873...other than that a +1 reading on the 25th in 1914 is the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like Sunday will be the one day during the next week where temps can get above normal and raise the monthly mean a bit...after that its cold again...temps in 40's with rain and snowmelt on sunday followed by temps in teens by Monday am...lots of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like Sunday will be the one day during the next week where temps can get above normal and raise the monthly mean a bit...after that its cold again...temps in 40's with rain and snowmelt on sunday followed by temps in teens by Monday am...lots of ice. normals are on the rise and mid 40's is near normal the end of February...we could see a minus 20 departure again...To beat 1979 NYC has to average 25.4 or lower or the month...as of yesterday it was 24.7...Today will average more than that but the next three days will be much below...After Sunday it has to average around 25 till the end of the month to beat 1979...there is a good chance of that happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 normals are on the rise and mid 40's is near normal the end of February...we could see a minus 20 departure again...To beat 1979 NYC has to average 25.4 or lower or the month...as of yesterday it was 24.7...Today will average more than that but the next three days will be much below...After Sunday it has to average around 25 till the end of the month to beat 1979...there is a good chance of that happening... The interesting thing about this February is that we won't see a shift in the pattern before the month ends as the models all keep us well below normal for the next 10 days. The February 1979 record cold only lasted until the 19th when the monthly average was still 19 degrees. There was a moderation in temperatures from the 20-28th that brought the monthly average up to 25.5 as the month ended. The current model forecasts look like they keep us on track for a finish under 25 for a top 5 February. Even January 2004 had a mild first week which kept the monthly average higher than it would have been otherwise. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-379AB036-DE66-49D1-9184-B99C65F9DCBD.pdf http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-83D7C649-911D-4DFA-B596-967D8DB2F6D9.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I see a -1 on the 24th in 1873...other than that a +1 reading on the 25th in 1914 is the lowest. Thanks very much. Something to shoot for. If it does hit zero would be quite an accomplishment. Thinking CP falls short with a 1, 2 or 3 but again something to root for. Thanks again for the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The interesting thing about this February is that we won't see a shift in the pattern before the month ends as the models all keep us well below normal for the next 10 days. The February 1979 record cold only lasted until the 19th when the monthly average was still 19 degrees. There was a moderation in temperatures from the 20-28th that brought the monthly average up to 25.5 as the month ended. The current model forecasts look like they keep us on track for a finish under 25 for a top 5 February. Even January 2004 had a mild first week which kept the monthly average higher than it would have been otherwise. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-379AB036-DE66-49D1-9184-B99C65F9DCBD.pdf http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-83D7C649-911D-4DFA-B596-967D8DB2F6D9.pdf it will be interesting what the coldest 30 days will be...1979 was 26.2 for 30 days...January 31st and March 1st 1979 were mild bring up the average...2004 had a 30 day period averaging 22.5...I think we could see a period averging less than 25 if it stays cold the rest of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The Euro has a massive area of 850s of -30C to the west at 06Z tomorrow night then massively moderates it as it crosses PA, if that does not happen we have a shot at -1 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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