SleetStormNJ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 9:48 PM, forkyfork said: bottomed out at 0.0 at exactly 5 am Wow. Nice. Never got below 1 degree here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Through 15 February, DFN -8.3 F @ CPK....DFN -8.7 F @ Islip...coldest month ever recorded at CPK was February 1934 (mean just under 20.0 F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WSO Upton, whose records date back to the 1940's...has a mean temperature of 19.5 F through the first 16 days this month. The coldest month on record at Upton was January 1977...which had an identical mean temperature of 19.5 F. http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlyMeanTemps.htm http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/cat.phtml?station=OKXN6&network=NY_COOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 10:07 PM, Pamela said: Through 15 February, DFN -8.3 F @ CPK....DFN -8.7 F @ Islip...coldest month ever recorded at CPK was February 1934 (mean just under 20.0 F).With a little help from a -15F on February 9 and a single-digit high that day; something like a -35F departure for one day and the two around it were around -20F in terms of departure. Not a whole month but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/16/2015 at 2:46 PM, Juliancolton said: -17.7F for a morning low. That is awesome in the purest sense of the word. Wow! I somehow missed this earlier. That is fantastic! I think you probably have the coldest location of all the regular posters in this region, right? Is that colder than you registered last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 What puts this cold spell in perspective for me, is the fact that it may end up colder than January 2004.. I recall that month being brutal, and that month also had the infamous 9*F morning snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 1:39 AM, chietanen said: Wow! I somehow missed this earlier. That is fantastic! I think you probably have the coldest location of all the regular posters in this region, right? Is that colder than you registered last year? Yeah, I was irrationally happy when I saw just how cold it was, lol. Definitely colder than last year - I think my best was -12 or -13, but I'd have to check. I'm honestly not sure why my area cools so well compared to the rest of the region. I know it's not simply the result of a wonky thermometer unit, since I can always confirm my lows with other nearby reports. It probably has to do with the topography and the large tracts of relatively flat farmland, but who knows. Still, I'm actually a little surprised that I was only a few degrees colder than KPOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 February 1934... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 NYC 2/15/15.....25......4.......15........-20......February do date....25.8....-8.3... 2/16/15.....21......3.......12........-23..................................24.9.....-9.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Went to -7 here yesterday morning around 7:30am. Snowing so nicely now at 7*! Heh, bunch of sevens. On 2/17/2015 at 2:33 AM, Fantom X said: What puts this cold spell in perspective for me, is the fact that it may end up colder than January 2004.. I recall that month being brutal, and that month also had the infamous 9*F morning snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 12:05 PM, bluewave said: NYC 2/15/15.....25......4.......15........-20......February do date....25.8....-8.3... 2/16/15.....21......3.......12........-23..................................24.9.....-9.2 Will be interesting to see where we wind up...sitting at 23.0 degree mean here for month after yesterday...coldest month on station record is 20.5 degrees in Jan 1977. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We are going to see more ridiculous departures Thurs/Friday and I also wonder how the month will finish. Even days like today would normally put up an impressive double digit departure but it still won't compare to later this week. Hard to believe our average highs are in the low 40s by now and it's in the 20s daily like no big deal. It looks cold all the way through so records may be challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 12:24 PM, doncat said: Will be interesting to see where we wind up...sitting at 23.0 degree mean here for month after yesterday...coldest month on station record is 20.5 degrees in Jan 1977. The current 24.9 places us in fifth place for February and just outside the top ten overall coldest months. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 12:36 PM, bluewave said: We are currently sitting just outside the top ten coldest months for NYC I could see us breaking into that list pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The fresh snow cover is going to help at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 12:37 PM, pazzo83 said: I could see us breaking into that list pretty easily. The current forecast under 25 degrees track for February would put us top 10 on that list and a top 5 for February. Since this is coming in February where the means have been rising steadily in recent decades, I believe this would only be the third -10 departure month in NYC since the 1970's should the forecast verify. February monthly average temperature in NYC....35.3 -10 degree departure months in NYC since the 1970's Jan 77.....-10.1 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-C892D7EE-4000-4672-B530-BC27CB6F1911.pdf Dec 89....-10.3 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-D56AFFAB-E9E8-48A4-AF65-835638E7A714.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The 06z GFS is forecasting a low of -15.1F at KMMU on 2/21 at 09z and a low of 1.7F at KLGA same date and time. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 These are actual forecasted surface temps by the 06z GFS for 06z on 2/21, about three hours before the minimum which occurs at 09z and is unavailable on this product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:23 PM, IsentropicLift said: The 06z GFS is forecasting a low of -15.1F at KMMU on 2/21 at 09z and a low of 1.7F at KLGA same date and time. Very impressive.No way that happens with 850's only down to -14C and 925's at -16C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 the gfs has a known cold bias in these situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Well the 12z NAM has everyone below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:26 PM, IsentropicLift said: These are actual forecasted surface temps by the 06z GFS for 06z on 2/21, about three hours before the minimum which occurs at 09z and is unavailable on this product 01.png The GFS has had my location at -20 to -30 several times already this winter. Coldest actual reading so far is -14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 4:00 PM, chietanen said: The GFS has had my location at -20 to -30 several times already this winter. Coldest actual reading so far is -14. Yep, it was a good 10 degrees too cold with the cold over this past weekend IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:59 PM, IsentropicLift said: Well the 12z NAM has everyone below zeroit showed the same thing for lows sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 the previous coldest 30 days was from 1/6 to 2/4 averaging 28.3...It looks like the period 1/26-2/24 will be at least two degrees colder...If the month continues to be cold the coldest 30 day period might come a few days later...it depends how cold next week is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 how many times has nyc had a feb that averaged colder than jan with both months below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 4:57 PM, forkyfork said: how many times has nyc had a feb that averaged colder than jan with both months below normal? 1958...1963...1978...since 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Strictly by model output, is the COLD later this week as impressive as earlier in the week? Got down to 3 in Lynbrook and -9 in Liberty Will end of week lows match these numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 5:04 PM, uncle W said: 1958...1963...1978...since 1958 And your post form the other thread. first time two consecutive years had a January and february average less than 32.0...1941-42 was the last time that happened... http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyannualtemp.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Using the 850mb method, I'm calculating a low of about 2-3F in NYC Friday morning. I'd like to see 850mb temperatures slightly colder. If they bottom out around -24C, it'll probably be a near miss. I think we need at least -25C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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