bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks for the info Blue! Ran some Hysplit backward trajectories last night after class, and I have to say I haven't seen a more favorable source region for potentially historic cold in the NE in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks for the info Blue! Ran some Hysplit backward trajectories last night after class, and I have to say I haven't seen a more favorable source region for potentially historic cold in the NE in quite some time. Thanks for posting that great chart. This looks like the most impressive Arctic outbreak in quite some time here. There are going to be some good temperature drops behind the departing storm on Sunday into Monday. The record lows for Sunday look too low to challenge for NYC/LGA/EWR. But the potential is there after midnight into the early hours of Monday to get near the record low temperature range since the records will be higher than Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That is the absolute perfect setup for cpk. Straight north source region. Bypassing the lakes like we haven't seen in numerous other outbreaks. Also funneling down the Hudson valley. This one looks legit to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 That is the absolute perfect setup for cpk. Straight north source region. Bypassing the lakes like we haven't seen in numerous other outbreaks. Also funneling down the Hudson valley. This one looks legit to me It's also impressive how late in the season that this potential is occurring compared to previous strong Arctic outbreaks after 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 the last time KNYC got down to zero with a positive AO was 1/19/1994 and 1/26/1994... cold wave zero or lower... 17.....09.....1/14-16/2004.....ao was -4.387 on the 17th...18.....0224.....01....................................................................29.....06.....1/9-11/2004.....ao was -1.121 on the 9th...15.....0127.....07........................................................................42.....32.....1/25-27/1994.....ao was 1.005 on the 26th32.....0531.....00.........................................................................35.....04.....1/18-20/1994.....ao was 3.267 on the 21st...-1.805 on the 15th...10......-215.....00.......................................................................23.....04.....1/20-22/1985.....ao was -6.226 on the 19th09......-231.....09......................................................................................................................35.....19.....1/16-18/1982.....ao was 0.852 on the 17th...-1.300 on the 20th19.....0015.....00..........................................................................37.....20.....12/24-26/1980.....ao was 0.796 on the 26th20......-123.....08.............................................................................13.....04.....2/17-19/1979.....ao was 0.732 on the 19th17.....0028.....17.............................................................................26.....07.....1/16-18/1977.....ao was -7.433 on the 15th12......-213.....02..........................................................................28.....05.....1/22-24/1976.....ao was -3.262 on the 24th15......-122.....14.............................................................................13.....02.....1/8-10/1968.....ao was -1.820 on the 9th14......-117.....03............................................................................44.....25.....2/7-9/1963.....ao was -3.796 on the 7th...25......-234.....11.........................................................................24.....03.....2/1-3/1961.....ao was 0.198 on the 2nd...20......-228.....07..........................................................................23.....06.....1/14-16/1957.....ao was 2.183 on the 16th12.....0025.....11........................................................................28.....10.....2/2-4/1955.....ao was -2.472 on the 2nd...17.....0037.....08......................... the ao is plus today but falling...the forecast isn't encouraging if you're looking for a negative ao...1957 and 1994 had zero readings with an ao +2 or higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 the last time KNYC got down to zero with a positive AO was 1/19/1994 and 1/26/1994... cold wave zero or lower... the ao is plus today but falling...the forecast isn't encouraging if you're looking for a negative ao...1957 and 1994 had zero readings with an ao +2 or higher... Any lows of 5 degrees or under at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 isn't something that we have seen since 1987 and 1979. Lows below 10 degrees at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 since 1979 2014...9 2003...8 1990...7 1987...4...7 1979...0...4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Any lows of 5 degrees or under at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 isn't something that we have seen since 1987 and 1979. Lows below 10 degrees at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 since 1979 2014...9 2003...8 1990...7 1987...4 1979...0...4 Hey bud can you tell me when was the last time nyc hit 0 or below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hey bud can you tell me when was the last time nyc hit 0 or below? January of 1994 was the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 January of 1994 was the last time.you think we'll beat it Sunday night? Assuming we get a nice 4-6 inch powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 you think we'll beat it Sunday night? Assuming we get a nice 4-6 inch powder? The only thing you can say 96-120 hrs out in time conservatively is that it will probably go below 5 degrees in NYC. Any more specific calls will probably have to wait until the weekend when the details of the of the CAA behind the departing storm come into better focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The only thing you can say 96-120 hrs out in time conservatively is that it will probably go below 5 degrees in NYC. Any more specific calls will probably have to wait until the weekend when the details of the of the CAA behind the departing storm come into better focus. sounds good thanks man keep up the good analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 sounds good thanks man keep up the good analysis Thanks. It will be interesting to see how low we can go behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks. It will be interesting to see how low we can go behind the storm.looks amazingly windy and cold! True winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GFS MEX lows Monday are higher. Seems to be due to less snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 12z GFS has 700mb temps of -36C around southern New Jersey at 96 hrs. This is lower than any 700mb temp in the sounding climatology history shown for the OKX station on the SPC Sounding Climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nam has temps close to zero here already by 7pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the avg. temp in Central Park Fri stays below 11F, it will be the coldest Feb day since 1979! Sun is another candidate for this. The current NWS forecast is for a daytime high of 14F and a low tonight of 6F. The key will be getting the midnight temp down to around 15F. Sun is another candidate for coldest Feb day since 1979. The coldest Feb day in the last 80 years (since 1934) was 2/7/1958 with a mean temp of 8F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM 1 am sunday night, Monday morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Will we get a wind chill warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Will we get a wind chill warning?I hope not that's one weather event I can do without. An advisory is bad enoughI still think Sunday has a good shot at 5 or less. Even though 850s have trended somewhat warmer on the models the source region hasn't changed. That's some dense cold funneling down the Hudson. Ideal for CPK and the zoo keeper can't screw it up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If the avg. temp in Central Park Fri stays below 11F, it will be the coldest Feb day since 1979! Sun is another candidate for this. The current NWS forecast is for a daytime high of 14F and a low tonight of 6F. The key will be getting the midnight temp down to around 15F. Sun is another candidate for coldest Feb day since 1979. The coldest Feb day in the last 80 years (since 1934) was 2/7/1958 with a mean temp of 8F. 2/17/58...max of 10 and a min. of 3...2/16/03 had a max/min of 15/8... coldest February cold waves... ................. 13.....04.....2/17-19/1979 17.....00 28.....17 44.....25.....2/7-9/1963 25......-2 34.....11 ......................................................................... 24.....03.....2/1-3/1961 20......-2 28.....07 .......................................................................... ........................................................................ 28.....10.....2/2-4/1955 17.....00 37.....08 ........................................................................ ......................................................................... 30.....05.....2/14-16/1943 08......-8 22.....04 .......................................................................... ........................................................................... ...................... 21......-7.....2/8-10/1934 08....-15 26......-2 ......................................................................... 30.....05.....2/16-18/1922 17......-2 34.....08 ............... 31.....00.....2/4-6/1918 04......-6 38.....01 ........................................................................... 23.....08.....2/11-13/1917 12.....03 24.....00 ............................................ 21.....02.....2/11-13/1914 10......-3 26......-1 ............................................... ......................................... 26.....12.....2/9-11/1912 13.....00 21......-1 .............................................. 11......-2.....2/9-13/1899 07......-6 09......-2 09.....04 11.....06 .............................................. 44.....06.....2/16-18/1896 07......-5 26.....01 ..................................................................... 11.....00.....2/5-8/1895 10......-4 13.....06 08.....02 ............................................. 12.....00.....2/4-6/1886 07......-4..... 20.....03..... ............................................... 21.....03.....2/1-3/1881 09......-3..... 18.....01 ....................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 this year could become the first year since 1978 with a Jan/Feb both averaging below 30.0...the coldest February's since 1918 with monthly snowfall added... 1934...19.9...27.9" 1979...25.5...20.1" 1936...25.7...10.3" 1923...26.2...18.8" 1978...27.2...23.0" 1958...27.4...10.7" 2007...28.2.....3.8" 1963...28.3.....3.7" 1920...28.5...25.3" 1924...28.9...11.9" 1968...28.9.....1.1" 1967...29.2...23.6" 1926...29.2...26.3" 1947...29.3...17.7" 1942...29.7.....1.9" 2015...27.8.....3.7" as of 2/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone wants to bother updating the temps forecasted by the 0z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 7 degrees here currently...last time at zero here was Jan 2004...below zero Jan 1994...Monday am will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 7 degrees here currently...last time at zero here was Jan 2004...below zero Jan 1994...Monday am will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Definitely lower than forecasted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi wind watch for late Saturday night thru Sunday for gusts up to 50+ mph...don't recall ever seeing that with such brutal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With the temperature falling to 9° (so far) this morning, NYC has seen single digit readings in February for 2 consecutive winters for the first time since winters 1992-93 through 1995-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS and Nam still has below 0 temps for Monday morning for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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