WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a very anomalous ULL moving over relatively warm water where bursts of convection are going to have models put lows all over it. I feel like these setups always cause model issues with MSLP placement and QPF. We just don't have sub 500 heights that initiate cyclogenesis move over the MA and northeast. This is what they have in the far NW Pacific...lol. So, I am not surprised that solutions may vary a bit. Great point Scott. This is a different beast with regard to the Strength of the ULL, and it's explosive Potential. Surprises should abound..good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ground blizzards are overrated for New England. In the plains thousands of miles of flat. Our hilly terrain mitigates the effects off the beaches most of the time. Even the lesser ones that happen here are not typical. The affects of them can be pretty significant as far as snow removal/headaches/travel. After the last blizzard, several days later the drifts in my relatively windless area were pretty substantial across roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ground blizzards are overrated for New England. In the plains thousands of miles of flat. Our hilly terrain mitigates the effects off the beaches most of the time.best one Jan 76 at zero degrees,winds sustained 35 gusting to 50.open exposed areas zero visibility. Down on rural roads with open fields can suddenly be a big issue. Dry roads cruising at 35-40 when boom you hit 6 inches of hard pack.Look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 best one Jan 76 at zero degrees,winds sustained 35 gusting to 50.open exposed areas zero visibility. Down on rural roads with open fields can suddenly be a big issue. Dry roads cruising at 35-40 when boom you hit 6 inches of hard pack.Look forward to it. lol...Im loving your enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Great point Scott. This is a different beast with regard to the Strength of the ULL, and it's explosive Potential. Surprises should abound..good or bad. Well I mean more how models handle things. I'm not saying I expect some low to come out of nowhere and drop 2'. That's not going to happen. But, I think some details may have to wait for another run or two because it's not a common setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ground blizzards are overrated for New England. In the plains thousands of miles of flat. Our hilly terrain mitigates the effects off the beaches most of the time. Out here we have lots of open fields and areas that can be an issue. Not so much in the woods, but in those open areas. I don't think we're lots of power issues but I can see people travelling along on Sunday morning and suddenly find themselves in a white out for a few seconds (minutes?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think he was saying everyone gets into the meat of it....reading comprehension FTL... An 8" minimum implies goodies for everyone that far west. Math comprehension FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 best one Jan 76 at zero degrees,winds sustained 35 gusting to 50.open exposed areas zero visibility. Down on rural roads with open fields can suddenly be a big issue. Dry roads cruising at 35-40 when boom you hit 6 inches of hard pack.Look forward to it. I think I remember that one...my last winter before moving west. Taj Mahal blaring out of the tape deck..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think he was saying everyone gets into the meat of it....reading comprehension FTL... Ironic post. He said 8-12 based on banding. If you're gonna put a range, you should include the lower range too. Something like 4-6 with localized totals to 10 in banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With the winds coming straight from the north could the cape see OES? Seems like winds coming straight from portland/mid maine right to the mid cape/outer cape.Seems like plenty long of a fetch. I dont think its out of the question someone on the cape sees 15-18"...especially the outer cape.Just my 2 snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 best one Jan 76 at zero degrees,winds sustained 35 gusting to 50.open exposed areas zero visibility. Down on rural roads with open fields can suddenly be a big issue. Dry roads cruising at 35-40 when boom you hit 6 inches of hard pack.Look forward to it. Yeah, we have several roads around here and I know a couple in eastern CT that are completely open and prone to drifting. One minute you're driving through the woods and everything is fine and then you're in an open area covered by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ground blizzards are overrated for New England. In the plains thousands of miles of flat. Our hilly terrain mitigates the effects off the beaches most of the time. Yea, couldn't care less about that aspect (I know you do, Ginxy, that's ok) Only one event has ever impressed me in that regard. March 14, 1993. Boxing day a distant second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Didn't we have the same kind of wind for the blizzard a few weeks ago, but with much more snow? Power outages were pretty limited as I recall, at least in eastern ct. You are correct on both counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Didn't we have the same kind of wind for the blizzard a few weeks ago, but with much more snow? Power outages were pretty limited as I recall, at least in eastern ct.The winds in the blizzard interior were nothing. Couple gusts near 40. With this we're looking at gusts to near 65mph especially Sunday morning into late afternoon. That is going to cause big problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There you are...was waiting for this I agree with the clinchster. This could be pedesterian for us in interior new hampshire, although exciting with the wind and blowing. I thought GYX did a great overnight discussion and took a very prudent course. Not hard to bring that gently down for their interior counties and not hard to bump it up if needed. You can really tell with Chris and Ekster are on the overnight desk. The one thing in their discussion that caught my eye was the double loop. If we get more tucked in and a double loop then interior NH could go 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For my area, it looks like some good winds, and a lot more blown snow while looking jealously at those north. It's finicky for snow here, even in a good year. Only with a really well defined storm that takes a certain glancing blow out to sea would we ever see the highest totals, either due to mixing (not the case here) or ocean enhancement not quite reaching us, and the best bands being to our NE, and dwindling this way. Could someone shed some light for me/disabuse me of the notion that areas right next to the coast, even without mixing, tend to get depressed totals, and also explain why this is, considering the moisture is often coming from the NE, E for these noreasters once they've bombed, rather than the south. Is it just that we are in the shadow of some Ocean Effect that adds to the totals elsewhere, or is there a more basic meteorological phenomenon? Still, despite all these handicaps, and some of the models seeming to show us in a dry slot, not quite getting the comma head, I imagine we'll get a steady period of snow over a long period of time. What a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The winds are almost always over-hyped in the interior, and I'd bet thousands of dollars we're not reaching 65 MPH except for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Some really impressive stuff on BUFKIT. Pretty much stuff I can't recall if the GFS is right Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Damn, that's a tasty look on the 06z RGEM. TT_GZ_UU_VV_054_0850.gif P1_GZ_D5_PN_054_0000.gif I am going to chase that little 5 mile wide weenie band going nw into NH. Looks like it goes just NE of me, near Dendrite and Eek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The winds are almost always over-hyped in the interior, and I'd bet thousands of dollars we're not reaching 65 MPH except for coastal areas Agreed. 65 is really high. Even exposed ORH airport didn't hit that during the prolific winds on the backside of Boxing Day 2010. I think they reached 63 or something. Most other areas in the interior would certainly be less than ORH airport. They will still be very strong though. I'd say gusts over 50 is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 best one Jan 76 at zero degrees,winds sustained 35 gusting to 50.open exposed areas zero visibility. Down on rural roads with open fields can suddenly be a big issue. Dry roads cruising at 35-40 when boom you hit 6 inches of hard pack.Look forward to it. I live near an area with huge open hay fields. The drifting should be legendary Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The winds are almost always over-hyped in the interior, and I'd bet thousands of dollars we're not reaching 65 MPH except for coastal areas When I see Ryan get excited about big winds of that magnitude..I know the threat is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This one seems like an odd setup witb ULL Closing off anand inverted troft. Seems like a fun nowcasting storm with death bands setting up more inland than other storms this month. Good luck mets on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 The winds are almost always over-hyped in the interior, and I'd bet thousands of dollars we're not reaching 65 MPH except for coastal areas Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Some really impressive stuff on BUFKIT. Pretty much stuff I can't recall if the GFS is right Sunday morning. Even back here the GFS is pretty wild. Really good snow growth through the period both Saturday night and Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sooooooo the 06z 4KM NAM Jackpots......... ME TO Franklin, MA?? Really? Silly Silly NAM....... or Issss iiiiiiiiittttt............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I experienced the most intense whiteout i ever have in the storm after the blizzard. Couldnt see 5 feet.Hull was basically a blizzard...so close. Blowing 25 constant with gusts to 35.Add in the fresh snow from the actual blizzard earlier in the week and you literally cant see the road....GF was driving had a full on panic attack and was about to stop in the whiteout. It was a straight away luckily and i know the road well so i guided her. It was intense. When we left it was barely snowing Ive lived in dover nh, bath maine, and aspen colorado as well. Never have i experienced whiteout like that.So i disagree that you need 1000 miles of plains to experience real drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Agree. agree also, but I believe it will better than the blizzard earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sooooooo the 06z 4KM NAM Jackpots......... ME TO Franklin, MA?? Really? Silly Silly NAM....... or Issss iiiiiiiiittttt............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey guys, I mentioned before, but heading to a cabin Saturday afternoon, through Monday in Jackson, NH, up near Carter Notch, at about 1500 feet elevation. What exactly can I expect? Any thoughts on this wind direction enhancing snowfall at all in that area? I was thinking 12 inches or so. I anticipate some pretty wild stuff. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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