ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM looks pretty dam nuts at 12z Sunday. Granted that is in the model clown range. Yeah the model is just backing the CCB into E MA at 54h...it would probably go crazy the next 6 hours over most of E MA given the 5H low is just E of ACY at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's kind of useless snapshot. That stuff to the NE blossoms and pivots down. It's also the RPM. Agreed. This is bound to have some banding down this way. Not expecting a solid 24hour precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Agreed. This is bound to have some banding down this way. Not expecting a solid 24hour precip shield. You can't treat things verbatim sometimes. The way I look at it, there might be a period of lighter snows in between the WAA stuff and more meaty CCB. I guess that's how I would take it...but again..these details may change. People seem to be sweating over some details that will probably change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 When you get 5h tracking like it does.. There's going to be some huge def and mesoscale bands that models won't necc pick up on and someone expecting 6 gets 16 of surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi good morning Thanks brother! BOS is now 79.5. 10.5 brings her to 90 on 2/15...not bad! Jerry, I see us in 7-11 range right now... I'm just not wowed on the accumulation front going into this one. It's a short event and unless we get into a def band I think this runs a high risk of lower totals. Seems very hit or miss with some big features and primed to disappoint many unless some subtle shifts between now and go-time shift around some bigger details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm going 12-16" here first call pending today's runsGyx going big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 When you get 5h tracking like it does.. There's going to be some huge def and mesoscale bands that models won't necc pick up on and someone expecting 6 gets 16 of surprise I think you and I (along with folks north and west of you) should plan for a minor snow event with wind; hope for more. That's the conservative, though realistic, view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi good morning Jerry, I see us in 7-11 range right now... I'm just not wowed on the accumulation front going into this one. It's a short event and unless we get into a def band I think this runs a high risk of lower totals. Seems very hit or miss with some big features and primed to disappoint many unless some subtle shifts between now and go-time shift around some bigger details. We need another nudge south on the ULL to entertain some of the more prolific totals others were spitting out (i.e. >15" stuff) This one has been fighting an uphill battle from the very beginning of when it showed it up. The shear strength of the shortwave is able to hide some of the sins of the setup...but it still needs just a bit more help to turn this into a prolific snow producer. That said, solid warning criteria snowfall with insane winds is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi good morning Jerry, I see us in 7-11 range right now... I'm just not wowed on the accumulation front going into this one. It's a short event and unless we get into a def band I think this runs a high risk of lower totals. Seems very hit or miss with some big features and primed to disappoint many unless some subtle shifts between now and go-time shift around some bigger details. What kind of spell are we in when 7-11 is described in meh like terms...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eastern mass is east of ORH or inside 128? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think you and I (along with folks north and west of you) should plan for a minor snow event with wind; hope for more. That's the conservative, though realistic, view. Why? Every piece of guidance gives me warning level snows and most over 8. I've seen these setups similar enough to like my area for this one for a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Big Snow totals are not the headliner this time.Drifts 8-12 feet from 8-12 inches of dry dry snow in exposed areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The biggest deal for snow in eastern areas is the Sunday backlash. That's a very strong signal and one I'm always skeptical of but it seems like that's a lot of our snow. I just looked. At navgem and it shows it quite strongly. The should be a fun storm albeit probably what less snow than any of the past Monday systems ...which isn't saying much considering the baby of that group is like a foot and a half...lol. Yup, the majority of the snows in eastern areas hinges upon that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Didn't realize there was still widespread model discrepancy. From gyx A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY CAN BE SEEN IN THE 03Z SREF PLUME MEMBERS AT PORTLAND...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 INCHES TO ALMOST 40. THIS IS WHY THE WATCH REMAINS UP AND WARNINGS WILL WAIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We need another nudge south on the ULL to entertain some of the more prolific totals others were spitting out (i.e. >15" stuff) This one has been fighting an uphill battle from the very beginning of when it showed it up. The shear strength of the shortwave is able to hide some of the sins of the setup...but it still needs just a bit more help to turn this into a prolific snow producer. That said, solid warning criteria snowfall with insane winds is nothing to sneeze at. Pretty damn poetic, Will. Are you channeling Tip?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 06z GFS was exactly what we want to see for maximizing snow totals in eastern areas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I agree with Scott's points this AM. The initial WAA stuff is pretty set in stone now, That should drop an initial 2-4", than we wait on that developing CCB and where it's oriented. Let's get the 925/850/700 cranking early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lots that could still go wrong, more chance of breaking bad than good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Damn, that's a tasty look on the 06z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Big Snow totals are not the headliner this time.Drifts 8-12 feet from 8-12 inches of dry dry snow in exposed areas. I think that's the bigger story that many are not realizing. Having spent some time on the plains, I know it doesn't take much to have a ground blizzard from blowing and drifting snow. I think we're going to see some incredible drifts when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If that ULL closes off and scoots east of PHL and ACY, then it's going to be a big hit. If it is more up toward LI then I'd hedge a bit lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My area looks like it misses the lull, but may only get into the CCB briefly. I think 8-12 here is a good forecast as most models hint at some mesoscale banding. Everyone should prep for power outages Mesoscale banding means mesoscale subsidence too. Better lower that lower range to be safe. Not everybody's going to get into the meat of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lots that could still go wrong, more chance of breaking bad than good. There you are...was waiting for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If that ULL closes off and scoots east of PHL and ACY, then it's going to be a big hit. If it is more up toward LI then I'd hedge a bit lower GFS is sort of in bed with the RGEM right now with that southerly track. The Euro a bit further N. It will be nice since we have the 12z runs of the GFS and RGEM 1st to see if they may have the correct idea or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think that's the bigger story that many are not realizing. Having spent some time on the plains, I know it doesn't take much to have a ground blizzard from blowing and drifting snow. I think we're going to see some incredible drifts when all is said and done. Didn't we have the same kind of wind for the blizzard a few weeks ago, but with much more snow? Power outages were pretty limited as I recall, at least in eastern ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mesoscale banding means mesoscale subsidence too. Better lower that lower range to be safe. Not everybody's going to get into the meat of it. I don't think he was saying everyone gets into the meat of it....reading comprehension FTL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a very anomalous ULL moving over relatively warm water where bursts of convection are going to have models put lows all over it. I feel like these setups always cause model issues with MSLP placement and QPF. We just don't have sub 500 heights that initiate cyclogenesis move over the MA and northeast. This is what they have in the far NW Pacific...lol. So, I am not surprised that solutions may vary a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Didn't we have the same kind of wind for the blizzard a few weeks ago, but with much more snow? Power outages were pretty limited as I recall, at least in eastern ct.crank that up ,Blizz 13 2 hr band wind for 10 hrs plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Didn't we have the same kind of wind for the blizzard a few weeks ago, but with much more snow? Power outages were pretty limited as I recall, at least in eastern ct. The wind may be stronger in this one. That said, I'm not all that excited about it over the interior during the actual storm...looks better as the storm ends during strong CAA. Coastline could get it much harder during the storm. Esp the cape. Don't get me wrong, it's gonna be pretty windy...but nothing we haven't seen before in the interior. 6-8" of snow with a lot of wind will be less impactful than 15"+ with lighter wind at this point given the snow removal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ground blizzards are overrated for New England. In the plains thousands of miles of flat. Our hilly terrain mitigates the effects off the beaches most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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