CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS seem pretty much identical to 12z fwiw Looked wetter and further WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I see BOS has broken the February monthly snow today. 79.4 now on the season. 90 looks good by mid month. Unreal! 79.4" snow moves Boston past 1915-16 for 8th snowiest winter. 1915-16 had 79.2" snow. Next up is 2010-11 with 81.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM is on another planet with this one. I don't know what to think, but I know that it struggles with northern streamers so maybe this is just the GGEM being the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie is hideous, basically no coastal precip for anyone outside of Maine on that run. Wayyyyy NE of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie is tossed. Back on the sauce again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 James just had a nocturnal emission in his footed onesie.That's just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie is hideous, basically no coastal precip for anyone outside of Maine on that run. Wayyyyy NE of the 12z run.we toss violently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 James just had a nocturnal emission in his footed onesie. that's one of the funniest things I've read in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie looks like it has a big inverted trough over CT coast and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes this. Of course it just adds to the hype. But these charts scream this kind of potential. Feb 2006 in NYC, Westchester, and Fairfield. Forecasted QPF was similar. Broke the all-time snowfall record. Larry Cosgrove was posting about this on one of my FB status updates RE the storm.......when I asked him to put numbers to his cautions of T-snow, he said "10-16", with an additional 6-10" if you get under convection"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie looks like it has a big inverted trough over CT coast and LI. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie looks like it has a big inverted trough over CT coast and LI. Yep. I'm tossing it for now, but think it raises some caution flags for sure along with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We have enough votes for model toss. Here, here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There is gonna be an inv trough as the low develops and the strong s/w energy causes a hang back of lower pressure. But the other guidance develops the low such that it becomes a more classic low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just saw the GFS. Great improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 There is gonna be an inv trough as the low develops and the strong s/w energy causes a hang back of lower pressure. But the other guidance develops the low such that it becomes a more classic low pressure. I can't stand those things. 9/10 times it's the model's way of trying to deconstruct a $hit load of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEM isn't too far off from the GFS and other guidance. But its QPF distribution is plausible. The GFS run was saved by a near perfect H5 and a very close SLP tuck. Fragile scenario. I wouldn't toss anything. Risky to forecast big snows outside of EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ECMWF will be interesting. What an understatement. With everyone holding collective breath. I for one am not missing and probably anyone else reading this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I can't stand those things. 9/10 times it's the model's way of trying to deconstruct a $hit load of potential. Yeah well I'm aware of the in inv look, but the Ukie has vomitted on itself before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I can't stand those things. 9/10 times it's the model's way of trying to deconstruct a $hit load of potential. Everybody hates em until they're crushed by one. Great way to get 10" in 3hrs with a 1-2" forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Crazy uncle. With gfs and GEFS looking good one would have to be confident that unc is indeed hitting the bottle tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It was a joke.I get it. Being close to 50 yo I still struggle with things like this where people post things about themselves and others with near anonymity. Like I said I'm old school . . . Now back to the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Crazy uncle. With gfs and GEFS looking good one would have to be confident that unc is indeed hitting the bottle tonight. hr 63 GFS 1041MB High just n of the GL, 972mb tempest just ene of CC. That pressure gradient is reason number 334 why 69 is a lovely number. Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I get it. Being close to 50 yo I still struggle with things like this where people post things about themselves and others with near anonymity. Like I said I'm old school . . . Now back to the storm! I guessed your age based upon how you perceived that joke. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 1/22/05 is number 1 analog by cips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 1/22/05 is number 1 analog by cips I think it could be very similar, just more progressive, so the coast of e MA won't get 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie is tossed. Back on the sauce again. Lol, just last week we were looking at how the Ukie was leading even the Euro so far this year in terms of verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol, just last week we were looking at how the Ukie was leading even the Euro so far this year in terms of verification. That was more day 5 and 6. It could be right, but the solution is a little funky and it's jumped around before at this time. I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol, just last week we were looking at how the Ukie was leading even the Euro so far this year in terms of verification. It's always been a good model, but that has never stopped it from going bat$hit from time to time....model turrets syndrome. Just because it outscores all of the others in the timing of dust storms in Ghana doesn't mean it's right then it has a seizure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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