Hoth Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If I'm understand them right, they mean in the mid levels, but it was also a bit drier there. Basically it means if you can get rising air to form clouds and punch into this level, you may get convective elements. As Will posted earlier...the saturated lower levels are already borderline unstable. Cool, thanks very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good luck IDing TSSN with thunder drowned out by the wind and lightning by the transformers blowing. Dry snow FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah the GGEM is annoying, but it's losing the inv finger look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There's definitely still red flags in this...more than in the blizzard...we've got a narrow margin for error in digging this enough to have everything come together in time. The trends are good, but the question is if they will be enough.enough for what?, Geezus we are a twisted bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hopefully we get 9 C/KM this summer That's pretty close to dry adiabatic. It's rare to see anything close to that even with the biggest Plains events with the EML basically in their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Many storms do have steep lapse rates aloft, but that's usually where it is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good luck IDing TSSN with thunder drowned out by the wind and lightning by the transformers blowing. I could do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's pretty close to dry adiabatic. It's rare to see anything close to that even with the biggest Plains events with the EML basically in their backyard. The 1995 Superderecho had 8.5 C/KM lapse rates I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 we would be looking at Oct 11 type stuff with the thunder/lightning if that happened. We would essentially have thunderstorms but pure snow instead of rain...perhaps even rivaling the blizzard a few years back with 5-6'' per hour rates. Hopefully we get 9 C/KM this summer Thanks, I dig it. Should be fun to watch unfold. Ditto if it happens in summer. Just throw in 7K CAPE and 50kts shear. But I digress… GGEM sticking to its guns it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just back from a work relate dinner in Shrewsbury. Harvey actually has 12+ for BOS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is an all out sh*t show for BOS Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 To surmise a Nuclear Bomb in meteorological terms. Now is the time to use "Polar Vortex" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just back from a work relate dinner in Shrewsbury. Harvey actually has 12+ for BOS now? He had it at 6 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just back from a work relate dinner in Shrewsbury. Harvey actually has 12+ for BOS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ed Valle saying top analog for this storm is jan 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sunday's backside is just all out loud roaring CAA from the depths of the Arctic, probably whiteout from ground blizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS brings it. Blizzard conditions for much of SNE. Heavy snow for all with double digits possible I-91 east. Gonna be a national story. Maybe international. Somewhat fragile setup. I hope it doesn't tick back down from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS depiction would allow for the CCB to pivot and stall over a good chunk of NE MA so some totals >15'' would certainly be possible...especially considering we could be looking at 3-4''/HR snowfall rates under it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I see BOS has broken the February monthly snow today. 79.4 now on the season. 90 looks good by mid month. Unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM is very close to RGEM at 48h. Not sure how they are run or what data they ingest, but they look very close. What bothers me about GGEM is its insistence for multiple runs now on that dual low setup with easternmost low eventually taking over, such that best lift dodges around SNE. Did the same with the 1/27 blizzard and that signaled a more eastern surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I see BOS has broken the February monthly snow today. 79.4 now on the season. 90 looks good by mid month. Unreal! At this rate Jerry the all-time seasonal record is obtainable in days. 130 maybe by daffodil time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 These types of mid-level center depictions are where myths and tales of unforecasted 3" per hour rotting deformation bands are born...you always keep your guard up on this setup: Yes this. Of course it just adds to the hype. But these charts scream this kind of potential. Feb 2006 in NYC, Westchester, and Fairfield. Forecasted QPF was similar. Broke the all-time snowfall record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ed Valle saying top analog for this storm is jan 2005James just had a nocturnal emission in his footed onesie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM is very close to RGEM at 48h. Not sure how they are run or what data they ingest, but they look very close. What bothers me about GGEM is its insistence for multiple runs now on that dual low setup with easternmost low eventually taking over, such that best lift dodges around SNE. Did the same with the 1/27 blizzard and that signaled a more eastern surface low track. If the RGEM doesn't do it, I wouldn't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I haven't dived into soundings tonight, but late developing mid levels should keep LLJ focuses over eastern areas. However, rapid deepening of the low will support a great deal of backside CAA winds. Nothing to sneeze at there. Isallobaric component FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 James just had a nocturnal emission in his footed onesie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Harv_02_12_2015_11pm.png Poor guy. Looks like he has the weight of the world on his shoulders. This last month must be running him ragged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Don't focus at 700 since it's like -25C lol. The lower levels are probably more Important. We can go to the summit of Wawa and watch snowflakes crystallize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEFS seem pretty much identical to 12z fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If the RGEM doesn't do it, I wouldn't worry about it. We'll know soon enough. 06z run will be the first run that can "see" the meat of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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