ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah I meant more later on after hr 60 and also...the fact that snow growth is pretty good down low too. Very rare indeed. If we can get good low level inflow, that's a real sweet look in terms of snow growth. Such a cold a system. There's also a MAUL signal at 60h on the BOS sounding between about 700 and 550: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, just watch and wait.....nooses will start flying out on the western periphery, as Messeger finds some obscure meso model to torment us with every hour with each ne tic. It will be like a water board, Being out on the fringes is life on the edge for weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 TSSN? where would it be possible/likely on this run I'm tired of forecasting thundersnow...everytime I mention it nothing happens. I"m terrible at it so not going to say it. I had always assumed that vigorous lift was a key factor in thundersnow but I don't think that is the case. Lift, obviously is important, however, you need to get an x amount of instability within the zone of strongest lift. My guess is you would want to see some pretty steep lapse rates to help with this and probably some other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sick in flow around the 925 and 850mb levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone see any "red-flags"?? For once this could be (as silence descends) The perfect storm "White hurricane of 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eric Fisher thinking 20" Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 There's also a MAUL signal at 60h on the BOS sounding between about 700 and 550: Yeah earlier BUFKIT actually had a bit of elevated CAPE lol. Check out the warm tongue wrapped into Boston harbor. That's helping the instability. Pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone see any "red-flags"?? For once this could be (as silence descends) The perfect storm "White hurricane of 15" There's definitely still red flags in this...more than in the blizzard...we've got a narrow margin for error in digging this enough to have everything come together in time. The trends are good, but the question is if they will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anyone see any "red-flags"?? For once this could be (as silence descends) The perfect storm "White hurricane of 15" seems like much of the precip would be involved with the CCB as the system really begins to crank off the coast? If that's the case could really hurt alot of folks, particularly, the further west you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Forecast from local met is 6 to 12 think that is about right should be fun with the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah earlier BUFKIT actually had a bit of elevated CAPE lol. Check out the warm tongue wrapped into Boston harbor. That's helping the instability. Pretty sick. oh crap..TT of 49 on that sounding...that's about as good as you'll see in a winter scenario. Low to mid-40's is usually pretty decent but 49...not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Would the GFS depiction produce a significant wind event at ground level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Would the GFS depiction produce a significant wind event at ground level? More than likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wonder how many are traveling up to New England to watch this and or document the cumulative total on ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Forecast from local met is 6 to 12 think that is about right should be fun with the windthose totals will be increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NWS discussion mentioned lapse rates on the order of 9 degrees/km in this. Obviously in the summer that would be like an EML pants tent type rate, but I'm wondering if it's similarly impressive in a winter scenario. Would anyone be willing to speak to that? Much obliged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 These types of mid-level center depictions are where myths and tales of unforecasted 3" per hour rotting deformation bands are born...you always keep your guard up on this setup: Nice bent back warm front trying to show itself right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Would the GFS depiction produce a significant wind event at ground level? Good, Question is that LLJ in a position to blast anyone during the storm? I mean Power outages and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maybe roger smith was right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NWS discussion mentioned lapse rates on the order of 9 degrees/km in this. Obviously in the summer that would be like an EML pants tent type rate, but I'm wondering if it's similarly impressive in a winter scenario. Would anyone be willing to speak to that? Much obliged. If I'm understand them right, they mean in the mid levels, but it was also a bit drier there. Basically it means if you can get rising air to form clouds and punch into this level, you may get convective elements. As Will posted earlier...the saturated lower levels are already borderline unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Classic thunder snow look ingredients.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maybe roger smith was right? The GFS showing 8-12" isn't exactly biting at my heel to forecast 3 feet...but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NWS discussion mentioned lapse rates on the order of 9 degrees/km in this. Obviously in the summer that would be like an EML pants tent type rate, but I'm wondering if it's similarly impressive in a winter scenario. Would anyone be willing to speak to that? Much obliged. we would be looking at Oct 11 type stuff with the thunder/lightning if that happened. We would essentially have thunderstorms but pure snow instead of rain...perhaps even rivaling the blizzard a few years back with 5-6'' per hour rates. Hopefully we get 9 C/KM this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good, Question is that LLJ in a position to blast anyone during the storm? I mean Power outages and such?I haven't dived into soundings tonight, but late developing mid levels should keep LLJ focuses over eastern areas.However, rapid deepening of the low will support a great deal of backside CAA winds. Nothing to sneeze at there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nice bent back warm front trying to show itself right on the coast. Fun times when your NW of the mid level centers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM is still screwing around with the inverted trough...though it is slowly losing definition. 00z looks a bit more organized, but still not quite there. Still warning event for at least the eastern half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jay it might not mean TSSN, but perhaps more like convective bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jay it might not mean TSSN, but perhaps more like convective bands. Good luck IDing TSSN with thunder drowned out by the wind and lightning by the transformers blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Jay it might not mean TSSN, but perhaps more like convective bands.Its gonna be wild. Very unstable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS Queens wanna know...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.