eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can anyone speed up the RGEM? I'm hoping to hear something good from a reliable model before bed. The NAM looked like a powdery 6" for you. Actually probably 2" in a few spots and 8" in others, depending on where banding sets up. That would be a great score from a clipper. If we weren't looking for blizzards we'd really appreciate these potent clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That NAM depiction is not happening. Nobody is getting sixty inches of snow from this lol. During Nemo in 2013, the NAM had a run where it gave parts of Central CT and N.E. Mass and Long Island 70 inches of accumulation. The NAM is nuts most times, you can't take that depiction seriously. This is going to be a Beast no doubt for somebody, but not 60 inches...! I saved that clown map somewhere. It's the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 To be fair the NAM isn't giving 60"...the instantwxmaps algorithm is. True story - tropical tidbits map has a 2' jack for EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM looked like a powdery 6" for you. Actually probably 2" in a few spots and 8" in others, depending on where banding sets up. That would be a great score from a clipper. If we weren't looking for blizzards we'd really appreciate these potent clippers. Oh, Nammy. I'll take the 18z GFS. That worked for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought most said during today that a more sw development or trend was more snow for CT or is this still the case? Still the case and while the 0z NAM was a step in the right direction it's not good enough. What might be hurting this from digging a bit more and further SW is the fact where the MLJ streak begins to round the base of the trough. It begins to do so once the closed 500mb circulation just enters into western NY/northern PA and with a jet streak of 160+ knots(which is FOOKING SICK) that doesn't leave much room for further digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 4km is much more realistic It still shows that sucker hole at 4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM looks a shade more amplified at 48h than the 54h 18z panel. That's all we get tonight on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 bullish Yeah was kind of surprised to see this.... With the trends currently, may not be too bad though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 4km NAM through hour 60... Figuring ratios will be higher than 10:1 for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Must read, something to consider when concentrated on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/piling-on/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Any word on the RGEM? Tropical Tidbits is slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still the case and while the 0z NAM was a step in the right direction it's not good enough. What might be hurting this from digging a bit more and further SW is the fact where the MLJ streak begins to round the base of the trough. It begins to do so once the closed 500mb circulation just enters into western NY/northern PA and with a jet streak of 160+ knots(which is FOOKING SICK) that doesn't leave much room for further digging. What's hurting this is that it's a clipper sweeping through the upper Lakes. From literally north of Lake Huron. Not the midwest or even the Ohio Valley. Sure it's a redeveloper that's going to blow up, and they sometimes produce... but not usually from this steep an angle. Getting 6+ inches out of that kind of setup is unusual and should be considered a great score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN Looks like we'll be chasing a New England #blizzard this weekend for #ValentinesDay with @FoxMariaMolina PERFECT TIMING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 4km NAM through hour 60... image.jpg Figuring ratios will be higher than 10:1 for most... we don't toss lets get some convective snows into NE mass and go up up and away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's hurting this is that it's a clipper sweeping through the upper Lakes. From literally north of Lake Huron. Not the midwest or even the Ohio Valley. Sure it's a redeveloper that's going to blow up, and they sometimes produce... but not usually from this steep an angle. Getting 6+ inches out of that kind of setup is unusual and should be considered a great score. True but in this case you have the polar jet interacting with the sub-tropical jet with phasing occurring near our general vicinity. This will lead to some explosive cyclogenesis but it's just a matter of where that occurs. It's going to be tough or a bit more difficult to get everything to occur much further west I think unless much deeper digging started to occur much, much earlier. All in all I think the chances of something more significant in terms of snowfall back west across CT and central MA are not so great but as far as just snows are concerned it's a question as to whether much of eastern MA is looking at potentially 18''+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's hurting this is that it's a clipper sweeping through the upper Lakes. From literally north of Lake Huron. Not the midwest or even the Ohio Valley. Sure it's a redeveloper that's going to blow up, and they sometimes produce... but not usually from this steep an angle. Getting 6+ inches out of that kind of setup is unusual and should be considered a great score. it is a ridiculous angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM looks a shade more amplified at 48h than the 54h 18z panel. That's all we get tonight on the RGEM. It ticked about 10 miles east but still well south of other guidance. Not caving on that depiction, not yet anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sunrise county maine is gonna have an amazing blueberry harvest. Looks like a solid 1.5-3 footer for them.Nam gives them 40+Havent been paying attention but they must be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It ticked about 10 miles east but still well south of other guidance. Not caving on that depiction, not yet anyway. It is southeast actually...but that is more amplified...by the time we reach 00z Sunday, a more amplified trough will be a bit SE of the less amplified version...earlier on it's S and SSW as the trough is still positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 threw 30 gfs looks a bit different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM out of its best range, but looks like a surface low emerging off Delaware / SNJ.... max vorticity digs almost to North Carolina well to the south of all other guidance, seems like would be a big hit if extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 this run is going to be even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 gfs digging further south then 18z RGEM out of its best range, but looks like a surface low emerging off Delaware / SNJ.... max vorticity digs almost to North Carolina well to the south of all other guidance, seems like would be a big hit if extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just prepare for another blizzard....obvious where this has been going. Someone in sne will get 20"...maybe even 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 @48hrs looks like the 500mb track is a bit further SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is southeast actually...but that is more amplified...by the time we reach 00z Sunday, a more amplified trough will be a bit SE of the less amplified version...earlier on it's S and SSW as the trough is still positively tilted. Will what do we want in E MA in order to get that TROWAL over us for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is definitely a bit south again. Who knows what the final QPF numbers will be, but they are still relatively irrelvant at this stage. Most important is continuing to see the mid-levels trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 978 @ 57hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The south trend is real, started by the Canadians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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