Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 C'mon Bday boy, you are the sultan of winter. You often contend negative posts about cold and snow. It's not a bad thing. I wish I had your optimism all the time. I really truly do. Not saying that to be a db.cool but I contend people melting down when on the cusp of great runs, same ole she it 2010 2013 2014 2015. Not you but I already see some panic posts, it's obscenely funny. Sunday is a better setup with - 850 east flow, should be advisory I think at minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Operative word huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It sure would be nice if Modeling would lose the Short wave dropping SSE out of Alberta into Montana Saturday 6z -12z and kill the picture perfect Western Ridge, not to beat a dead horse, but if that can happen (and I don't know how well modeled Sw's are leaving the ?Arctic in a day or two) out at 78 hours-90 hrs....then that would give our Weekend Shortwave Room to Dig and amplify, it would buy time for rising heights (ridging to improve along E Coast) and our LP to come back west and obliterate us......not sure if that is even on the table any more or if that ship has sailed. Again don't know how often models lose Short waves at 90 hrs out in Montana , lol I liked what the euro did at 12z but I am not sold on any semblance of consistency at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 0z GFS , I don't think it is that much different than 12z Euro, it def looks to have taken a step in that direction (which is a good thing) do we have any hope of a transient Block anywhere or anything favorable to slow this thing down coming off NJ coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Closed 498 vort max dropping SE over the lakes, this should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side.oh man Will, that's one sweet vort, definitely on my radar tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side. this looks like it's below zero in the interior and 1-5F 128 belt and 20's SE coast and snowing at all locations that would be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lol 5h temps are off the Cod.edu color scale, that's a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Reminds me of DCs Feb bowling ball in 2010, crazy low heights. possible mayhem incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Reminds me of DCs Feb bowling ball in 2010, crazy low heights. possible mayhem incoming I remember seeing that Come E/ENE off the VA coast on Water Vapor , beautiful sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side. It wouldn't take much with that look to make it advisory snows up here and SECS warning snows across all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Reminds me of DCs Feb bowling ball in 2010, crazy low heights. possible mayhem incoming Being at least 96 hours out from start time, plenty of time for this to become a real big event, especially if it dug further west and got slightly more tilt towards the negative and closed off like southwest of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Excuse me for getting excited but yea that's the most impressive ULL I have seen in ions. Talk about explosion when it encounters relatively to it's core warm ocean currents never mind the Gulf stream. Stuff I dream about, don't need epic snow totals all the time to satiate my winter fetishes. This is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Excuse me for getting excited but yea that's the most impressive ULL I have seen in ions. Talk about explosion when it encounters relatively to it's core warm ocean currents never mind the Gulf stream. Stuff I dream about, don't need epic snow totals all the time to satiate my winter fetishes. This is one of them. It's a party at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Excuse me for getting excited but yea that's the most impressive ULL I have seen in ions. Talk about explosion when it encounters relatively to it's core warm ocean currents never mind the Gulf stream. Stuff I dream about, don't need epic snow totals all the time to satiate my winter fetishes. This is one of them. Well just speaking of winter extremes... look at the moderate pressure gradient coupled with -20C to -33C temperatures at H85 across New England. Whether it snows big or not, that's wind chill headlines to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Unadulterated bliss Party at all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just look at the lapse rates on that sounding, TTs 50, that's like an Antarctic squall.,Man how I pray,epic and I Mean epic drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If you guys want to weenie out, check out the GGEM. I think this threat has some real legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 More sleepless nights incoming and I would not want it any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 More sleepless nights incoming and I would not want it any other way. Enjoy it all Ginxy :) You are going to redefine epicosity this winter!! You'll have 90 inches of snow on a level. Can. You. Dig. It. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Unadulterated bliss Party at all levels While I like the trends tonight, this map does show a big problem for this threat...notice the lack of Atlantic inflow to th enorth of the H5 low...the winds are quite light over SNE..and almost in an anti-cyclonic direction as they break off toward the north a bit. We want to see those tighten up and be more out of the ESE at >40 knots on future runs for a much larger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 While I like the trends tonight, this map does show a big problem for this threat...notice the lack of Atlantic inflow to th enorth of the H5 low...the winds are quite light over SNE..and almost in an anti-cyclonic direction as they break off toward the north a bit. We want to see those tighten up and be more out of the ESE at >40 knots on future runs for a much larger event. it's getting there but I am not even interested in big totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 While I like the trends tonight, this map does show a big problem for this threat...notice the lack of Atlantic inflow to th enorth of the H5 low...the winds are quite light over SNE..and almost in an anti-cyclonic direction as they break off toward the north a bit. We want to see those tighten up and be more out of the ESE at >40 knots on future runs for a much larger event. That consolidates and the northern closed low disappears that's a huge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 it's getting there but I am not even interested in big totals Well you may not be personally...but your image illustrates to the rest of the people reading here how we need to see some imporvement in order to get a widespreader larger event. There's no doubt that we'd get accumulating snow on the current look, but probably more on the light to moderate side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That consolidates and the northern closed low disappears that's a huge event.I would be satisfied as is. Snow is 4-8 in CT with blizzard winds and near zero cold. Not so great north of the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well you may not be personally...but your image illustrates to the rest of the people reading here how we need to see some imporvement in order to get a widespreader larger event. There's no doubt that we'd get accumulating snow on the current look, but probably more on the light to moderate side. that works and soundings say instability means more, look at the mids, won't take much to ramp this up, if not it's still crazy for a period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Santa Claus is coming to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice hit in SE areas. Improvement from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 06z GFS showing a strong hit for eastern SNE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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