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Super Snow Sunday 2/15-Party Like it's 1717


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C'mon Bday boy, you are the sultan of winter. You often contend negative posts about cold and snow. It's not a bad thing. I wish I had your optimism all the time. I really truly do. Not saying that to be a db.

cool but I contend people melting down when on the cusp of great runs, same ole she it 2010 2013 2014 2015. Not you but I already see some panic posts, it's obscenely funny. Sunday is a better setup with - 850 east flow, should be advisory I think at minimum
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It sure would be nice if Modeling would lose the Short wave dropping SSE out of Alberta into Montana Saturday 6z -12z and kill the picture perfect Western Ridge, not to beat a dead horse, but if that can happen (and I don't know how well modeled Sw's are leaving the ?Arctic in a day or two) out at 78 hours-90 hrs....then that would give our Weekend Shortwave Room to Dig and amplify, it would buy time for rising heights (ridging to improve along E Coast) and our LP to come back west and obliterate us......not sure if that is even on the table any more or if that ship has sailed. Again don't know how often models lose Short waves at 90 hrs out in Montana , lol

 

 

I liked what the euro did at 12z but I am not sold on any semblance of consistency at this time frame

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GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side.

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GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side.

oh man Will, that's one sweet vort, definitely on my radar tonight
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GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side.

 

this looks like it's below zero in the interior and 1-5F 128 belt and 20's SE coast and snowing at all locations that would be fun

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GFS is more impressive with Sunday...probably widespread advisory snows for SNE...but aside form the QPF Queen stuff, I like the tighter looking upper air low closer to the south coast which is what we need with the whole system having limited range of inflow on the northern side.

 

It wouldn't take much with that look to make it advisory snows up here and SECS warning snows across all of SNE. 

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Reminds me of DCs Feb bowling ball in 2010, crazy low heights. possible mayhem incoming

 

Being at least 96 hours out from start time, plenty of time for this to become a real big event, especially if it dug further west and got slightly more tilt towards the negative and closed off like southwest of Long Island. 

 

gfs_namer_111_500_vort_ht.gif

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Excuse me for getting excited but yea that's the most impressive ULL I have seen in ions. Talk about explosion when it encounters relatively to it's core warm ocean currents never mind the Gulf stream. Stuff I dream about, don't need epic snow totals all the time to satiate my winter fetishes. This is one of them.

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Excuse me for getting excited but yea that's the most impressive ULL I have seen in ions. Talk about explosion when it encounters relatively to it's core warm ocean currents never mind the Gulf stream. Stuff I dream about, don't need epic snow totals all the time to satiate my winter fetishes. This is one of them.

It's a party at 500mb.

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Excuse me for getting excited but yea that's the most impressive ULL I have seen in ions. Talk about explosion when it encounters relatively to it's core warm ocean currents never mind the Gulf stream. Stuff I dream about, don't need epic snow totals all the time to satiate my winter fetishes. This is one of them.

 

Well just speaking of winter extremes... look at the moderate pressure gradient coupled with -20C to -33C temperatures at H85 across New England.  Whether it snows big or not, that's wind chill headlines to the coast.

 

gfs_namer_117_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Unadulterated blissgfsNE_500_temp_108.gif

Party at all levels

 

 

While I like the trends tonight, this map does show a big problem for this threat...notice the lack of Atlantic inflow to th enorth of the H5 low...the winds are quite light over SNE..and almost in an anti-cyclonic direction as they break off toward the north a bit.

 

We want to see those tighten up and be more out of the ESE at >40 knots on future runs for a much larger event.

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While I like the trends tonight, this map does show a big problem for this threat...notice the lack of Atlantic inflow to th enorth of the H5 low...the winds are quite light over SNE..and almost in an anti-cyclonic direction as they break off toward the north a bit.

We want to see those tighten up and be more out of the ESE at >40 knots on future runs for a much larger event.

it's getting there but I am not even interested in big totals

gfsNE_850_spd_102.gif

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While I like the trends tonight, this map does show a big problem for this threat...notice the lack of Atlantic inflow to th enorth of the H5 low...the winds are quite light over SNE..and almost in an anti-cyclonic direction as they break off toward the north a bit.

 

We want to see those tighten up and be more out of the ESE at >40 knots on future runs for a much larger event.

 

That consolidates and the northern closed low disappears that's a huge event.

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it's getting there but I am not even interested in big totals

 

 

Well you may not be personally...but your image illustrates to the rest of the people reading here how we need to see some imporvement in order to get a widespreader larger event.

 

There's no doubt that we'd get accumulating snow on the current look, but probably more on the light to moderate side.

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Well you may not be personally...but your image illustrates to the rest of the people reading here how we need to see some imporvement in order to get a widespreader larger event.

There's no doubt that we'd get accumulating snow on the current look, but probably more on the light to moderate side.

that works and soundings say instability means more, look at the mids, won't take much to ramp this up, if not it's still crazy for a period
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