CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 To me, looking at H5..the way the QPF distribution looks on the ensemble guidance is a lot more typical of something with that track...not the patchy look on the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 To me, looking at H5..the way the QPF distribution looks on the ensemble guidance is a lot more typical of something with that track...not the patchy look on the op run. Exactly why I said euro hr 72 5H was as perfect as it could get, man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Exactly why I said euro hr 72 5H was as perfect as it could get, man But there is a reason. It's more consolidated and better downstream ridging compared to 00z. That's what I want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 dude its unreal what is transpiring this week for EMA, its like a near 2005 once a week for a month. I know. More next week, trending colder. We prance, we derobe, we rejoice, we snow, we copulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 To me, looking at H5..the way the QPF distribution looks on the ensemble guidance is a lot more typical of something with that track...not the patchy look on the op run. Sorry I belong in the NYC thread... but I do live far to the N of NYC.... how does the ENS look for around these parts??thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Man do those Euro ensembles look sweet You're golden, regardless.... they are crucial for me, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 C'mon peeps...tighten it up in here. This is the storm thread...not banter. We've done pretty darn well during this stretch to stay on topic but this thread has been off the rails a lot. Lot of deleted and moved posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 C'mon peeps...tighten it up in here. This is the storm thread...not banter. We've done pretty darn well during this stretch to stay on topic but this thread has been off the rails a lot. Lot of deleted and moved posts. That was me. My bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sorry I belong in the NYC thread... but I do live far to the N of NYC.... how does the ENS look for around these parts??thanks! It looks like an advisory event in NYC on the ensembles. Maybe 3-4 inches. Perhaps a touch higher if you got good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes I'm a big . Since I have no obligations to the public to be correct, here is my snow map ~36-48 hours out based on all the model info and all the info I've absorbed from all the excellent discussion here.Biggest bust potential: Cape Cod, and Eastern CT/Central MA. I think what's not going to be realized until nowcast time are the "micro jackpots" of accumulation and how awful the conditions will be with high winds and cold temperatures. The classic 1980's cream of wheat commercial comes to mind... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YO9lZds9RI What an historic winter, even for us down near the bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm more slowly coming on board. I mean before we had qpf access to the euro (yes times were tough 10 years ago...) you'd see this track and start high fiving. It (may be) coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think we see higher amounts than 7-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It looks like an advisory event in NYC on the ensembles. Maybe 3-4 inches. Perhaps a touch higher if you got good ratios. Ok thanks... but even for N and slightly E of the city... by about 30 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm more slowly coming on board. I mean before we had qpf access to the euro (yes times were tough 10 years ago...) you'd see this track and start high fiving. It (may be) coming. I'd be hitting solid warning criteria right now for eastern MA...a little bit more reserved once out near or west/southwest of ORH...I don't think this is all of the sudden going to morph into another 18-24" event either. 8-12" type event..maybe a band of 12"+ in NE MA or somewhere that gets lucky elsewhere in E MA. If things shift well SW, then we can probably talk more prolific amounts (15"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blizzard Watches are up MEZ020-131030-ANDROSCOGGIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS320 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAYEVENING....TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALSNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS AROUND 6 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS11 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT..FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS14 BELOW..FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYCLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 15 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDSAROUND 10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 24 BELOW..SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 11. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWMAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT ASCOLD WITH LOWS AROUND 6 ABOVE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTH 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTERMIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOWAS 15 BELOW..SUNDAY...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT..SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYCLOUDY. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. LOWS 5 BELOW TO ZERO..WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND10 ABOVE. LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW..TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20..TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW70 PERCENT..WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHSIN THE MID 20S..WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOWSHOWERS. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO..THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think we see higher amounts than 7-9". I agree - that's the biggest place of contention with this storm. Although there's plenty of QPF for the Cape, there are boundary layer issues on some of the models and worries about lower ratios. Not thinking rain, but maybe sleet might keep totals down. Of course the Cape sometimes get a good amount on the back end on some of these types of setups. Definitely tough to call for the Cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah I would feel very confident on warning criteria snows. Pretty much a lock now ORH-east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I agree - that's the biggest place of contention with this storm. Although there's plenty of QPF for the Cape, there are boundary layer issues on some of the models and worries about lower ratios. Not thinking rain, but maybe sleet might keep totals down. Of course the Cape sometimes get a good amount on the back end on some of these types of setups. Definitely tough to call for the Cape... EURO showed taint for CC on the blizzard of 2015, but we stayed all snow and had 30.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blizzard Watches are up MEZ020-131030- ANDROSCOGGIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS 320 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS AROUND 6 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 11 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 11. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 14 BELOW. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 15 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 24 BELOW. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 11. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 6 ABOVE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH... INCREASING TO NORTH 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW. .SUNDAY...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. LOWS 5 BELOW TO ZERO. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20. Oh boy. Most be pretty confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know. More next week, trending colder. We prance, we derobe, we rejoice, we snow, we copulate lol be careful be very careful I have a 37 year old Blizz 78 copulate. Pretty much on key everything is tightening up becoming more concentric, anyone north of this beast of a closed low is going to get either crushed by a CCB or smoked by a norlun. east of 91 looks fantastic yet west of 91 should also cash in, same JP areas as I thought before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm more slowly coming on board. I mean before we had qpf access to the euro (yes times were tough 10 years ago...) you'd see this track and start high fiving. It (may be) coming. If I recall you already said it was coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 More sloppy seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Chartuese purple pink thingy color #11 waiting in the wings, for its 4th appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z NAM shows an active baroclinic zone with precip offshore the US around hour 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Oh boy. Most be pretty confident There is not much doubt up here, It could get better if you can believe that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Chartuese purple pink thingy color #11 waiting in the wings, for its 4th appearance lol, Its making a line for Eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 More sloppy seconds. Hours and hours of choking on arctic sand while seeing lightning flashes on the eastern horizon toward ME. My guts says you will still do pretty well in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hours and hours of choking on arctic sand while seeing lightning flashes on the eastern horizon toward ME. My guts says you will still do pretty well in this. Yeah I'm not entirely sold on only 6-8" yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah I'm not entirely sold on only 6-8" yet. I think it gets better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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