SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have NEVER Seen a more Hilarious Run in my weather career! It says FU to SNE!! Snows South of it, SE of it, East of it, NE of it AND North of it! But barely in it. It it was trending this way for a day but still hahaha. You get 10"+ on that run and all of SNE is warning criteria assuming a 15:1 ratio(Which is not at all unreasonable). Look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Brian don't know that identifier DAW? How we do CNE? Rochester, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That mid-level and ULL track is awesome though...tighten that up just a shade and I think you'd see the very heavy snows that are shown in Maine further SW. The 850 low is basically on top of Cape Cod at hour 72 and all CT east of 91 can muster is 0.5" qpf. That sounds really low for those kinds of upper levels with H5 south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I really think some have Ray Charles syndrome on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 From what has been described..that norlun is going to help some lucky zone really jackpot. Whether that's over Long Island or Sne ..noone has a clue..but it's there on most models maybe it will be the creature feature from Ray's climo book of night terrors that screws BOS-NE mass in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think you need to re-analyze the run. Checkered weather career for our accordion friend? I think guidance is pretty locked in for a snowstorm in New England with huge totals in Maine but fairly sizable ones elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think you need to re-analyze the run. Well, if you recall.... he posted 1/2 hour ago that his juices flow when there is a bust, so he must have his bust goggles on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 That mid-level and ULL track is awesome though...tighten that up just a shade and I think you'd see the very heavy snows that are shown in Maine further SW. Correctable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 850 low is basically on top of Cape Cod at hour 72 and all CT east of 91 can muster is 0.5" qpf. That sounds really low for those kinds of upper levels with H5 south of LI. Agreed. I don't think it means 1.5" of qpf for SNE or anything, but I could see the totals being underdone a bit and model guidance adjsuts up a bit as we get closer. Usually I will say the opposite, but this is an exception. All it would take is for the mid-level center to bomb out just a hair faster and thus enhance the inflow...with the powderkeg that this ULL is, I could easily see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Bernie Rayno tweeted 4-8 Hartford area.....that seem accurate based on current run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That mid-level and ULL track is awesome though...tighten that up just a shade and I think you'd see the very heavy snows that are shown in Maine further SW. I'd be shocked if we don't see qpf totals boost between now and the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 850 low is basically on top of Cape Cod at hour 72 and all CT east of 91 can muster is 0.5" qpf. That sounds really low for those kinds of upper levels with H5 south of LI. Will did mention Mid level low deepening was Very Critical for this inflow challenged ULL . Guess the deepening wasn't rapid enough It seems we have a good enough ULL track with decent confidence now we need mid levels to juice up faster I'd LOVE to see 7H heights Near cape cod at 12z on euro and compare it to GFS's 255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sorry for that everyone, I dropped a turd at a critical moment. Reading a euro run while driving in heavy traffic on old cache ftl. QPF verbatim may satisfy, but synoptically we still have work to do for this to be a higher impact event on SNE. As I commented yesterday, tons of vorticity rounding the trough, and all these multiple ensuing surface lows bouncing around are mucking up the inflow. Not much of a difference from 0z. Blizzard conditions will be reached briefly in eastern SNE, but we are oh so close to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not impressed outside of Maine. The best forcing takes a late, wide turn around the ULL. The feature positioning looks impressive, but it's deceptive. This still could be moderate impact throughout and pretty significant for the same areas that have been getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What's intriguing is the capture and semi-stall with this thing close to Cape Cod. Do that further SW and you got yourself a lot of snow especially for E.MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sorry for that everyone, I dropped a turd at a critical moment. Reading a euro run while driving in heavy traffic on old cache ftl. QPF verbatim may satisfy, but synoptically we still have work to do for this to be a higher impact event on SNE. As I commented yesterday, tons of vorticity rounding the trough, and all these multiple ensuing surface lows bouncing around are mucking up the inflow. Not much of a difference from 0z. Blizzard conditions will be reached briefly in eastern SNE, but we are oh so close to something bigger. We have something bigger on the models, only the GGEM screws up the flow with multiple surface low centers, other guidance is pretty much a singular surface low center. EURO is a single surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not impressed outside of Maine. The best forcing takes a late, wide turn around the ULL. The feature positioning looks impressive, but it's deceptive. This still could be moderate impact throughout and pretty significant for the same areas that have been getting hammered. We need some tight mid levels exploding sooner, not just a "pretty track" I think it is VERY CLOSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Eduggs, how do you not see this thing being a high impact blizzard for SNE, especially eastern areas, from Cape Ann to Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I may have been more wrong than Al Gore about global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We need some tight mid levels exploding sooner, not just a "pretty track" Have you seen the trends? They are trending that way, we have 66 hours before it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well we have 36 hours for this to trend from warning event to blockbuster in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Have you seen the trends? They are trending that way, we have 66 hours before it starts. No. From the 12Z run snow begins about 54 hours out. It's close in. There's room but as of now it's a nice snowstorm but 2005 isn't walking in based on today's guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So far trend is our friend. No reason right now to think that doesn't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think you need to re-analyze the run. You get 10"+ on that run and all of SNE is warning criteria assuming a 15:1 ratio(Which is not at all unreasonable). Look again. I'm saying all the heavy stuff. Wraps right around SNE like a perfect circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Everything about that run was pretty much better. Storm seemed to be a tick slower. Mid levels dug in further south and once the storm bombs out it hugs tighter to the coast and is less progressive than 0z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss75 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I may have been more wrong than Al Gore about global warming. Feels like the onset of a smaller Younger Drays even to me. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well we have 36 hours for this to trend from warning event to blockbuster in sne, or from a warning to a non-event. Agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My hunch is that further slowing and deepening will show up in next two runs as much of the surface development is taking place southwest of the ULL over SK-ND at this time. This could tend to consolidate the track as much as 2 deg southwest of depictions and bring the ULL over the coast closer to central NJ than NYC, which could allow both more recurvature and a faster trend of explosive cyclogenesis. Euro 12z is about halfway to what I believe will be final verifying central pressure at BM (972). Based on those rather minor adjustments, first call would be 30-40 inches for se NH and coastal ME as well as a few parts of ne MA, generally 20-30 in e MA, trending down to 8-12 in w MA, 6-10 in ALB. Would expect a ribbon of higher amounts also across ne CT towards central LI (15-25) with perhaps 10-18 for PVD and some parts of se MA. Not expecting much mixing with the rate of pressure falls overwhelming frontal advances, possibly ACK changes over briefly. 12-18 for Cape Cod. Wind gusts to 85 mph on exposed coasts. For Canadian side, 75-125 cm (30-50 in) potential for s NB, PEI and inland NS, 20-40 cm coastal NS. Wind gusts to 170 km/hr in the most exposed locations, 140 km/hr more widespread. This would be an extreme weather event for parts of Maine and Atlantic Canada. (specific numbers for later check, BGR 35" PWM 37" CON 29" BOS 24" ORH 20" PVD 14" BDL 12" BDR 7" ISP 16" JFK 5" ALB 6" YHZ 70 cm snow 15 mm mixed, Moncton NB 120 cm, St John NB 90 cm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Eduggs, how do you not see this thing being a high impact blizzard for SNE, especially eastern areas, from Cape Ann to Cape Cod. While I'm not speaking for Eduggs, but this very easily could become quite an annoying system in SNE. GFS and Euro only put out .5" of qpf. Say that's right......yipee....5-10" of snow. Won't even notice it when there is 2-3' already on the ground. If the qpf is that paltry and .5" falls over that long of a duration then most places best chance of qualifying as a Blizzard will be as a ground Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not impressed outside of Maine. The best forcing takes a late, wide turn around the ULL. The feature positioning looks impressive, but it's deceptive. This still could be moderate impact throughout and pretty significant for the same areas that have been getting hammered. You're just a bundle of positivity aren't you. Perhaps Albany will get some snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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