CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ratios are overrated. Nothing like seeing it compact by 50%, 6 hrs later. MEEEHHHHHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Prertty much the GGEM has been the only one showing it these last few runs GFS and UK just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ratios are overrated. Nothing like seeing it compact by 50%, 6 hrs later. MEEEHHHHHH. Prepare to incur the wrath of Ginxy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 first thing i thought of when I saw that out put, White Juan I believe some of it is rain for Halifax looking at the 850 mb temps, but boy it is cutting close. There were some areas during White Juan that recorded legit 20 cm/hr (8"/hr) rates. It was a truly incredible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 3" too high across the board I think. I like the general zones though. I don't see NYC getting 6-10 without a shift west. A pattern we have seen this winter is a sharp cutoff to major accumulations in western and sometimes central conn, that have not been forecasted well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I believe some of it is rain for Halifax looking at the 850 mb temps, but boy it is cutting close. There were some areas during White Juan that recorded legit 20 cm/hr (8"/hr) rates. It was a truly incredible storm. Wow. 12/23/97 stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS was more consolidated. Uk is impossible to know given limited info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Comparison of the 2/12/2015 6z and 12z GFS in terms of QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Prepare to incur the wrath of Ginxy lol huh? I like them all, high ratios, cement trucks, ratios may compact but man do they produce massive drifts. Scooters neighbors house maybe indistinguishable from the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ratios are overrated. Nothing like seeing it compact by 50%, 6 hrs later. MEEEHHHHHH.9:1 paste of 1.25" QPF is more impactful than 20:1 of 1.25" QPF imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Comparison of the 2/12/2015 6z and 12z GFS in terms of QPF: i assume the one on the left is 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 9:1 paste of 1.25" QPF is more impactful than 20:1 of 1.25" QPF imo. at 60 mph I would disagree if you plow for a living, impossible to keep roads clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 N or NNE wind downsloping?I don't think so. I haven't examined it closely, but I think it's the middle zone between two areas of forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 i assume the one on the left is 6z I assumed the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think 8-12 in many places based on current guidance I think we could even get that out here the rate things are going. Another 12 hours and we'll know a lot more I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Comparison of the 2/12/2015 6z and 12z GFS in terms of QPF: They are both labeled 12z.... I'm assuming the one on the left is the 6z and the one on the right is the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 9:1 paste of 1.25" QPF is more impactful than 20:1 of 1.25" QPF imo. Agreed. If you absolutely had to pick something to complain about down here during this stretch, it would be that....all cj fluff bombs. I'm looking forward to the one next week because we may introduce some precip type issues and cement......get the cf out of Boston Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 at 60 mph I would disagree if you plow for a living, impossible to keep roads clearthat's an extreme example and mostly a coastal issue. Paste equates to a lot more power outages though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that's an extreme example and mostly a coastal issue. Paste equates to a lot more power outages though. true just saying whats expected, carry on. Hull Ma maybe invisible to the world by next tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 They are both labeled 12z.... I'm assuming the one on the left is the 6z and the one on the right is the 12z? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Rain or mix on top of all this would be disastrous. Epic proportions disastrous. Can't even imagine the urban flooding. Would make ice dams look like a joke in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Might have record depths and w/e in all of ESNE by next week. Cant fathom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 They are both labeled 12z.... I'm assuming the one on the left is the 6z and the one on the right is the 12z? Yes, the 6z is on the left. I fixed the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Rain or mix on top of all this would be disastrous. Epic proportions disastrous. Can't even imagine the urban flooding. Would make ice dams look like a joke in comparison. I had 1.75 inches of rain on a 2 foot snow pack in 11, like a sponge, we aint getting 50 degree dews. Some street flooding because it has no where to go but thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Panicked weenies. A classic study of addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 true just saying whats expected, carry on. Hull Ma maybe invisible to the world by next tuesday My aunt and uncle, who used to have to evac out of Jamestown, RI for some things, might be heading to Hubbardston from Hull from this one. Bad news there yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 true just saying whats expected, carry on. Hull Ma maybe invisible to the world by next tuesday Yup, wonder how the winds will be gusting from Rockport to Truro Sunday morning. Any guesses on top gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Panicked weenies. A classic study of addiction.Just wait 30 minutes and watch the obsession over a 0.10" change in QPF on the euro. I'm still in the mode of wanting to pin down this ULL track and worry about QPF tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think we could even get that out here the rate things are going. Another 12 hours and we'll know a lot more I think. I'm still thinking roughly .5 - .2 liquid equivalent east to west from I-91 in Mass. There should be bands developing on top of the area as the 700mb slides through. But nothing I've seen leads me to believe the good stuff can wrap all the way back. I also don't buy big ratios. It often doesn't pan out for a variety of reasons. Meso events seem to work out best for high ratio snow. This could actually end up being a largely meso event away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It seems from the southward move of the ULL and increased QPF (for what it is worth) along with high ratios that areas east of I 91 will do quite well (as in 8-12 or above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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